Emissions and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2 C; however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments, increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA), designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns. IRA's scope and complexity make modeling important to understand impacts on emissions and energy systems. We leverage results from nine independent, state-of-the-art models to examine potential implications of key IRA provisions, showing economy wide emissions reductions between 43-48% below 2005 by 2035

Beyond Global Warming Potential: A Comparative Application of Climate Impact Metrics for the Life Cycle Assessment of Coal and Natural Gas Based Electricity

<p>In the ongoing debate about the climate benefits of fuel switching from coal to natural gas for power generation, the metrics used to model climate impacts may be important. In this article, we evaluate the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of coal and natural gas used in new, advanced power plants using a broad set of available climate metrics in order to test for the robustness of results. Climate metrics included in the article are global warming potential, global temperature change potential, technology warming potential, and cumulative radiative forcing. We also used the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) climate-change model to validate the results. We find that all climate metrics suggest a natural gas combined cycle plant offers life cycle climate benefits over 100 years compared to a pulverized coal plant, even if the life cycle methane leakage rate for natural gas reaches 5%. Over shorter time frames (i.e., 20 years), plants using natural gas with a 4% leakage rate have similar climate impacts as those using coal, but are no worse than coal. If carbon capture and sequestration becomes available for both types of power plants, natural gas still offers climate benefits over coal as long as the life cycle methane leakage rate remains below 2%. These results are consistent across climate metrics and the MAGICC model over a 100-year time frame. Although it is not clear whether any of these metrics are better than the others, the choice of metric can inform decisions based on different societal values. For example, whereas annual temperature change reported may be a more relevant metric to evaluate the human health effects of increased heat, the cumulative temperature change may be more relevant to evaluate climate impacts, such as sea-level rise, that will result from the cumulative warming.</p

Power Sector Carbon Index: Data, Sources, and Methods

<p>The Power Sector Carbon Index provides an estimate of the carbon dioxide intensity of the U.S. power sector using publicly available data sources. The most current information and all index charts are available at www.emissionsindex.org. The analysis code and data are available for download at https://github.com/EmissionsIndex/Emissions-Index. The Power Sector Carbon Index was created by researchers in Carnegie Mellon University’s Scott Institute for Energy Innovation.</p

Identifying/Quantifying Environmental Trade-offs Inherent in GHG Reduction Strategies for Coal-Fired Power

Improvements to coal power plant technology and the cofired combustion of biomass promise direct greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions for existing coal-fired power plants. Questions remain as to what the reduction potentials are from a life cycle perspective and if it will result in unintended increases in impacts to air and water quality and human health. This study provides a unique analysis of the potential environmental impact reductions from upgrading existing subcritical pulverized coal power plants to increase their efficiency, improving environmental controls, cofiring biomass, and exporting steam for industrial use. The climate impacts are examined in both a traditional100 year GWPmethod and a time series analysis that accounts for emission and uptake timing over the life of the power plant. Compared to fleet average pulverized bed boilers (33% efficiency), we find that circulating fluidized bed boilers (39% efficiency) may provide GHG reductions of about 13% when using 100% coal and reductions of about 20–37% when cofiring with 30% biomass. Additional greenhouse gas reductions from combined heat and power are minimal if the steam coproduct displaces steam from an efficient natural gas boiler. These upgrades and cofiring biomass can also reduce other life cycle impacts, although there may be increased impacts to water quality (eutrophication) when using biomass from an intensely cultivated source. Climate change impacts are sensitive to the timing of emissions and carbon sequestration as well as the time horizon over which impacts are considered, particularly for long growth woody biomass

Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act

Economy-wide emissions drop 43 to 48% below 2005 levels by 2035 with accelerated clean energy deployment

Data for Bistline, et al. (2023) "Power Sector Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022"

&lt;p&gt;These files contain input assumptions, results, and figures associated with the Bistline, et al. (2023) article "Power Sector Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" in&nbsp;&lt;i&gt;Environmental Research Letters&lt;/i&gt;. Please refer to the original paper for details: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad0d3b&lt;/p&gt

Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO _2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed