Improving estimations of maximal stand density by combining Reineke's size-density rule and the yield level, using the example of spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and European Beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.)

• The Reineke Stand density rule relating stem numbers to the quadratic mean diameter is generally used as a reference for modelling maximal stand density. • The linearity of this relationship after double logarithmic transformation is generally assumed, but it must be questioned for untouched stands and stands with a conventional thinning regime. Curvilinearity is demonstrated for some spruce and beech stands in Switzerland and shown to be statistically representative. This relationship is independent of the site index. It can be interpreted as a change in mortality in young stages mainly due to competition and in older stages more to ageing. • A more accurate estimation of the maximal stand density needs to take into account the important variation around the mean course, known as the yield level. A simple method to assess the yield level of any stand regardless of whether it is thinned or not is presented, based on estimating the effect of a stand opening on the basal are

Vulnerability of spruce ( Picea abies ) and beech ( Fagus sylvatica ) forest stands to storms and consequences for silviculture

The form and magnitude of storm damage and stand disclosure patterns were assessed in 332 randomly chosen pure and regular stands of spruce (Picea abies L.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) after storm lothar, within a region of the Swiss Midlands. This data was analysed in relation to maximal wind speed, measured with Doppler radar techniques and other influential factors such as relief, allometric characteristics, silvicultural history, and neighbourhood. In addition, storm damage, assessed from aerial photographs over an extended perimeter (about 70,000ha) was considered. A storm of the magnitude of lothar (December 26 1999), with an average maximal wind speed of 45ms−1 (160kmh−1) appears to have a highly chaotic wind field structure, with great spatial and temporal variation of wind gusts. Wind speeds were not a significant predictor for damage in spruce stands and only weakly influential for beech. The consequences of this high randomness were analysed to estimate the return time of such a storm at the stand level. It lies between 86 and 113years for spruce, 357 and 408 for beech. Only a few independent variables were significant and the overall explanatory strength of the model was unexpectedly low (R 2=0.07 for spruce and 0.30 for beech). Among the more reliable predisposing factors were mixture and aspect combined with gradient. An admixture of 10% or more broadleaved tree species or wind-firm conifers like Douglas fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] significantly reduced the vulnerability of spruce stands (by a factor of more than three). On wind-exposed aspects, damage was more than twice the average. Steeper slopes caused a significant reduction in susceptibility (by a factor of six for slopes over 50%, in comparison to gentle slopes <20%). Other factors such as height to diameter ratio of trees or time since last thinning did not appear to be significant predictor

Multiple Myeloma Treatment in Real-world Clinical Practice : Results of a Prospective, Multinational, Noninterventional Study

Funding Information: The authors would like to thank all patients and their families and all the EMMOS investigators for their valuable contributions to the study. The authors would like to acknowledge Robert Olie for his significant contribution to the EMMOS study. Writing support during the development of our report was provided by Laura Mulcahy and Catherine Crookes of FireKite, an Ashfield company, a part of UDG Healthcare plc, which was funded by Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc, and Janssen Global Services, LLC. The EMMOS study was supported by research funding from Janssen Pharmaceutical NV and Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Funding Information: The authors would like to thank all patients and their families and all the EMMOS investigators for their valuable contributions to the study. The authors would like to acknowledge Robert Olie for his significant contribution to the EMMOS study. Writing support during the development of our report was provided by Laura Mulcahy and Catherine Crookes of FireKite, an Ashfield company, a part of UDG Healthcare plc, which was funded by Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc, and Janssen Global Services, LLC. The EMMOS study was supported by research funding from Janssen Pharmaceutical NV and Millennium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Funding Information: M.M. has received personal fees from Janssen, Celgene, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Sanofi, Novartis, and Takeda and grants from Janssen and Sanofi during the conduct of the study. E.T. has received grants from Janssen and personal fees from Janssen and Takeda during the conduct of the study, and grants from Amgen, Celgene/Genesis, personal fees from Amgen, Celgene/Genesis, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novartis, and Glaxo-Smith Kline outside the submitted work. M.V.M. has received personal fees from Janssen, Celgene, Amgen, and Takeda outside the submitted work. M.C. reports honoraria from Janssen, outside the submitted work. M. B. reports grants from Janssen Cilag during the conduct of the study. M.D. has received honoraria for participation on advisory boards for Janssen, Celgene, Takeda, Amgen, and Novartis. H.S. has received honoraria from Janssen-Cilag, Celgene, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Novartis, and Takeda outside the submitted work. V.P. reports personal fees from Janssen during the conduct of the study and grants, personal fees, and nonfinancial support from Amgen, grants and personal fees from Sanofi, and personal fees from Takeda outside the submitted work. W.W. has received personal fees and grants from Amgen, Celgene, Novartis, Roche, Takeda, Gilead, and Janssen and nonfinancial support from Roche outside the submitted work. J.S. reports grants and nonfinancial support from Janssen Pharmaceutical during the conduct of the study. V.L. reports funding from Janssen Global Services LLC during the conduct of the study and study support from Janssen-Cilag and Pharmion outside the submitted work. A.P. reports employment and shareholding of Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) during the conduct of the study. C.C. reports employment at Janssen-Cilag during the conduct of the study. C.F. reports employment at Janssen Research and Development during the conduct of the study. F.T.B. reports employment at Janssen-Cilag during the conduct of the study. The remaining authors have stated that they have no conflicts of interest. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 The AuthorsMultiple myeloma (MM) remains an incurable disease, with little information available on its management in real-world clinical practice. The results of the present prospective, noninterventional observational study revealed great diversity in the treatment regimens used to treat MM. Our results also provide data to inform health economic, pharmacoepidemiologic, and outcomes research, providing a framework for the design of protocols to improve the outcomes of patients with MM. Background: The present prospective, multinational, noninterventional study aimed to document and describe real-world treatment regimens and disease progression in multiple myeloma (MM) patients. Patients and Methods: Adult patients initiating any new MM therapy from October 2010 to October 2012 were eligible. A multistage patient/site recruitment model was applied to minimize the selection bias; enrollment was stratified by country, region, and practice type. The patient medical and disease features, treatment history, and remission status were recorded at baseline, and prospective data on treatment, efficacy, and safety were collected electronically every 3 months. Results: A total of 2358 patients were enrolled. Of these patients, 775 and 1583 did and did not undergo stem cell transplantation (SCT) at any time during treatment, respectively. Of the patients in the SCT and non-SCT groups, 49%, 21%, 14%, and 15% and 57%, 20%, 12% and 10% were enrolled at treatment line 1, 2, 3, and ≥ 4, respectively. In the SCT and non-SCT groups, 45% and 54% of the patients had received bortezomib-based therapy without thalidomide/lenalidomide, 12% and 18% had received thalidomide/lenalidomide-based therapy without bortezomib, and 30% and 4% had received bortezomib plus thalidomide/lenalidomide-based therapy as frontline treatment, respectively. The corresponding proportions of SCT and non-SCT patients in lines 2, 3, and ≥ 4 were 45% and 37%, 30% and 37%, and 12% and 3%, 33% and 27%, 35% and 32%, and 8% and 2%, and 27% and 27%, 27% and 23%, and 6% and 4%, respectively. In the SCT and non-SCT patients, the overall response rate was 86% to 97% and 64% to 85% in line 1, 74% to 78% and 59% to 68% in line 2, 55% to 83% and 48% to 60% in line 3, and 49% to 65% and 36% and 45% in line 4, respectively, for regimens that included bortezomib and/or thalidomide/lenalidomide. Conclusion: The results of our prospective study have revealed great diversity in the treatment regimens used to manage MM in real-life practice. This diversity was linked to factors such as novel agent accessibility and evolving treatment recommendations. Our results provide insight into associated clinical benefits.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results

To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer fiveoriginal research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams renderedstatistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.</div

Razvoj sonaravnega gozdarstva in vloga združenja ProSilva Europe

We present the different facets of close to nature forestry and the reasons for its practical success. They lie in using free natural processes, the so-called biorationalisation, to achieve multi- purpose aims. This vision is fully in line with promoting good governance, achieving optimal habitat conditions and thus to improve biodiversity. This appears to be the right model for multiple use in modern societies. It is also compatible with the current goal of good carbon management.V prispevku predstavljamo različne vidike sonaravnega gozdarstva in razloge zanjegov uspeh v praksi. Razlogi za uspeh so v uporabi naravnih procesov (i.e. biološka racionalizacija), s katerimi laže dosegamo večnamenske cilje gospodarjenja. Tako najlaže ohranjamo visoko kakovost naravnega okolja, optimalne habitatne razmere in biotsko raznovrstnost gozdov. Dobre prakse kažejo, da je sonaravno gozdarstvo pravi model za usklajevanje večnamenske rabe gozdov v modernih družbah, vključno z dobrim upravljanjem ogljika

Modelling the demographic sustainability of pure beech plenter forests in Eastern Germany

The aim of this study is to scrutinise whether a dynamic equilibrium model based on sustainability of the demography is valid for pure beech plenter forests. Broad-leaved trees in general, and beech in particular react differently to individualisation and to shade than conifers, because of differences in space occupancy and their reaction to shade. Therefore application of the plenter system (or selection system) presents other constraints than for conifers forests. Sustainability must be assessed at stand level, because the plenter system functions without cover interruption and so needs continuous recruitment growing from the stand bottom up. The algorithm used for determination of demographic equilibrium depends on knowledge of the recruitment from below, stem migration over time (dependent on diameter increment), and removal for cultural and harvesting purposes and their dependency from stand density. Data used in this study comes from three permanent research plots in the pure beech plenter forests of Langula (Thuringia basin, Eastern Germany). The determination of the optimal stand density ensuring equilibrium uses an incremental growth model based on a basal area oriented density index (GCUM). It emphasises the phenomenon of growth extinction with increasing stand closure. Equilibrium is gained for a standing volume about 250 m3/ha and Basal area 22 m2/ha. This occurs at a much lower stand density than for classical coniferous plenter forests. The reasons for these differences and the silvicultural consequences are discussed.Modélisation de l’équilibre démographique en futaie jardinée de hêtre en Allemagne de l’Est. L’objectif de cette étude est de vérifier l’applicabilité d’un modèle d’équilibre démographique aux forêts jardinées de feuillus. Les feuillus réagissent différemment des conifères à l’individualisation due à l’irrégularité car ils utilisent différemment l’espace vital et l’ombrage. L’application des principes du jardinage est donc liée à des contraintes limitantes différentes que pour les forêts jardinées classiques de conifères. L’équilibre se détermine au niveau du peuplement, car en futaie jardinée il n’y a jamais interruption de couvert. Il faut donc une continuité du recrutement sous couvert. L’algorithme utilisé pour déterminer l’équilibre démographique se fonde sur la mesure du recrutement, de la migration des tiges dépendant de la croissance radiale et des éliminations à des fins culturales et de récolte, le tout dépendant de la densité des peuplements. Les données proviennent de trois parcelles d’essai de futaies jardinées de hêtre de Langula en Thuringe (Allemagne de l’Est). Le modèle incrémentiel de détermination de la densité optimale de peuplement qui assure l’équilibre démographique utilise un indice de densité variable GCUM fondé sur la surface terrière des plus gros. Il met en évidence un phénomène d’extinction du recrutement avec l’augmentation de la fermeture des peuplements. L’équilibre jardiné s’obtient pour des volumes sur pied de l’ordre de 250 m3/ha et une surface terrière de 22 m2, ce qui est nettement plus bas que dans le cas des forêts jardinées de conifères. On discute les raisons de cette différence et les conséquences sylvicoles

Silvicultural tools to develop irregular and diverse forest structures

ISSN:0015-752XISSN:1464-362

Silvicultural tools to develop irregular and diverse forest structures

This paper discusses the dynamic definition of irregularity; it looks at conditions of sustainability and considers under which conditions irregularity could be promoted efficiently. Irregularity is not usually innate in natural forest ecosystems, the exception being in certain developmental stages of old or over‐mature stands. Because of these natural tendencies, it is necessary to differentiate between temporary stand structures and sustainable irregular systems. Therefore, any assessment of irregularity needs to take the rules of demographic regulation into account. Different kinds of irregularity are discussed, as is the reference scale for implementation. This makes it possible to distinguish between genuine irregularity within the crown layer, full (vertical) irregularity on stand level (plenter system) and horizontal irregularity (for greater reference scales), by creating irregular patches (as under the irregular shelterwood system). The paper presents the differences between broadleaved species and conifers in a full irregular plenter system with a developed vertical structure. These differences are due to the degree to which tree species can support shade, without losing the ability to recover qualitative capacity and, for older stages, to use crown space efficiently. Other factors are also important: the reaction of tree species to openings, the production of epicormic branches, topology and crown expansion. Therefore, broadleaved plenter forests need much lower equilibrium standing volumes than classical conifer plenter forests and there are also losses in volume increment and stem quality. The silvicultural results produced by the different models for differentiating stands and promoting irregularity are also discussed. It is assumed that for broadleaved species, the compromise between the necessary educative steps (shaping of the stem form within tree populations) and closure control function are better in small populations (openings) than in stands with a single tree structure. Because the ultimate aim is to create not one, but several, co‐existing forms of heterogeneity, in the sense of creating varied habitats, modern silviculture should make use of all silvicultural tools. This is a significant challenge for silvicultural expertis