Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.publishedVersio

Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Goldsmit, J., Schlegel, R. W., Filbee-Dexter, K., MacGregor, K. A., Johnson, L. E., Mundy, C. J., Savoie, A. M., McKindsey, C. W., Howland, K. L., & Archambault, P. Kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: current and future predictions of habitat suitability and cover. Frontiers in Marine Science, 18, (2021): 742209. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.742209Climate change is transforming marine ecosystems through the expansion and contraction of species’ ranges. Sea ice loss and warming temperatures are expected to expand habitat availability for macroalgae along long stretches of Arctic coastlines. To better understand the current distribution of kelp forests in the Eastern Canadian Arctic, kelps were sampled along the coasts for species identifications and percent cover. The sampling effort was supplemented with occurrence records from global biodiversity databases, searches in the literature, and museum records. Environmental information and occurrence records were used to develop ensemble models for predicting habitat suitability and a Random Forest model to predict kelp cover for the dominant kelp species in the region – Agarum clathratum, Alaria esculenta, and Laminariaceae species (Laminaria solidungula and Saccharina latissima). Ice thickness, sea temperature and salinity explained the highest percentage of kelp distribution. Both modeling approaches showed that the current extent of arctic kelps is potentially much greater than the available records suggest. These modeling approaches were projected into the future using predicted environmental data for 2050 and 2100 based on the most extreme emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The models agreed that predicted distribution of kelp in the Eastern Canadian Arctic is likely to expand to more northern locations under future emissions scenarios, with the exception of the endemic arctic kelp L. solidungula, which is more likely to lose a significant proportion of suitable habitat. However, there were differences among species regarding predicted cover for both current and future projections. Notwithstanding model-specific variation, it is evident that kelps are widespread throughout the area and likely contribute significantly to the functioning of current Arctic ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of kelp in Arctic ecosystems and the underestimation of their potential distribution there.This work was supported by ArcticNet (P101 ArcticKelp), Fisheries and Oceans Canada Arctic Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Arctic Science and Aquatic Invasive Species Monitoring and Research Funds, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), NRCan Polar Continental Shelf Program Support, Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN), the Nunavut Marine Region Wildlife Management Board (NWMB), Quebec-Ocean, and the Ocean Frontier Institute through an award from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction and Response Network of Centres of Excellence’s (MEOPAR-NCE) Southampton Island Marine Ecosystem Project, and the Belmont Forum–BiodivERsA’s De-icing of Arctic Coasts: critical or new opportunities for marine biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (ACCES). KF-D was supported by the Australian Research Council (DE190100692)

2018 Research & Innovation Day Program

A one day showcase of applied research, social innovation, scholarship projects and activities.https://first.fanshawec.ca/cri_cripublications/1005/thumbnail.jp

Data from: Evidence for the introduction of the Asian red alga Neosiphonia japonica and its introgression with Neosiphonia harveyi (Ceramiales, Rhodophyta) in the Northwest Atlantic

There is currently conflict in the literature on the taxonomic status of the reportedly cosmopolitan species Neosiphonia harveyi, a common red alga along the coast of Atlantic Canada and New England, USA. Neosiphonia harveyi sensu lato was assessed using three molecular markers: COI-5P, ITS and rbcL. All three markers clearly delimited three genetic species groups within N. harveyi sensu lato in this region, which we identified as N. harveyi, N. japonica and Polysiphonia akkeshiensis (here resurrected from synonymy with N. japonica). Although Neosiphonia harveyi is considered by some authors to be introduced to the Atlantic from the western Pacific, it was only confirmed from the North Atlantic suggesting it is native to this area. In contrast, Neosiphonia japonica was collected from only two sites in Rhode Island, USA, as well as from its reported native range in Asia (South Korea), which when combined with data in GenBank indicates that this species was introduced to the Northwest Atlantic. The GenBank data further indicate that N. japonica was also introduced to North Carolina, Spain, Australia and New Zealand. Despite the fact that all three markers clearly delimited N. harveyi and N. japonica as distinct genetic species groups, the ITS sequences for some N. harveyi individuals displayed mixed patterns and additivity indicating introgression of nuclear DNA from N. japonica into N. harveyi in the Northwest Atlantic. Introgression of DNA from an introduced species to a native species (i.e. “genetic pollution”) is one of the possible consequences of species introductions, and we believe this is the first documented evidence for this phenomenon in red algae

Figure 3 rbcL tree

A neighbor-joining tree generated from rbcL sequence dat

COI-5P sequence alignment

An alignment of COI-5P sequences that were used to create a neighbor-joining tree for Figure

Figure 1 COI-5P tree

A neighbor-joining tree generated from COI-5P sequence dat

ITS sequence alignment

An alignment of ITS sequences that were used to create a neighbor-joining tree for Figure

rbcL sequence alignment

An alignment of rbcL sequences that were used to create a neighbor-joining tree for Figure

Prochlorococcus marinus responses to light and oxygen.

Prochlorococcus marinus, the smallest picocyanobacterium, comprises multiple clades occupying distinct niches, currently across tropical and sub-tropical oligotrophic ocean regions, including Oxygen Minimum Zones. Ocean warming may open growth-permissive temperatures in new, poleward photic regimes, along with expanded Oxygen Minimum Zones. We used ocean metaproteomic data on current Prochlorococcus marinus niches, to guide testing of Prochlorococcus marinus growth across a matrix of peak irradiances, photoperiods, spectral bands and dissolved oxygen. MED4 from Clade HLI requires greater than 4 h photoperiod, grows at 25 μmol O2 L-1 and above, and exploits high cumulative diel photon doses. MED4, however, relies upon an alternative oxidase to balance electron transport, which may exclude it from growth under our lowest, 2.5 μmol O2 L-1, condition. SS120 from clade LLII/III is restricted to low light under full 250 μmol O2 L-1, shows expanded light exploitation under 25 μmol O2 L-1, but is excluded from growth under 2.5 μmol O2 L-1. Intermediate oxygen suppresses the cost of PSII photoinactivation, and possibly the enzymatic production of H2O2 in SS120, which has limitations on genomic capacity for PSII and DNA repair. MIT9313 from Clade LLIV is restricted to low blue irradiance under 250 μmol O2 L-1, but exploits much higher irradiance under red light, or under lower O2 concentrations, conditions which slow photoinactivation of PSII and production of reactive oxygen species. In warming oceans, range expansions and competition among clades will be governed not only by light levels. Short photoperiods governed by latitude, temperate winters, and depth attenuation of light, will exclude clade HLI (including MED4) from some habitats. In contrast, clade LLII/III (including SS120), and particularly clade LLIV (including MIT9313), may exploit higher light niches nearer the surface, under expanding OMZ conditions, where low O2 relieves the stresses of oxidation stress and PSII photoinhibition