Implementation of the CAP Policy Options with the Land Use Modelling Platform - A first indicator-based analysis

This report presents the results of a study aiming to assess the environmental impact of two alternative scenarios for the new Common Agricultural Policy, evaluated by using the features of the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). The first scenario set the baseline conditions in form of the Status Quo; the second was a policy alternative, Integration. The scenarios set the framework for the economic drivers as analysed by CAPRI, which the LUMP integrates to produce detailed and geographically specific projections of changes in land use/cover between 2006 and 2020. The changes in land use/cover were then evaluated for their impact on various environmental sectors by comparing their effect on a set of relevant indicators of environmental conditions. The simulations have shown that the greening options expressed under the Integration policy option produce an overall impact that can be measured with a set of land use/cover based indicators. In general terms, the greening options reduce the pressure on naturally vegetated areas and on environmentally sensitive sites. This modelling approach has proven to be applicable for the evaluation of the new CAP scenario and the implementation of policy options, in the frame of the overall objectives of the reform. Due to the characteristics of the modelling framework, the set of computed indicators shows the differentiation of the impacts at national and regional levels, allowing the assessment of the impacts of the new CAP in the proper geographical context.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Current water resources in Europe and Africa - Matching water supply and water demand

Ensuring good quality water in sufficient quantities for all legitimate uses is a major policy aim of the European Commission, and the main aim of the Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water, which will be launched in 2012. The Blueprint is the EU policy response to emerging challenges in the field of water. It is within this policy framework that JRC carries out research on hydrological simulation modelling, aiming to provide scientific assessments of general available water resources and floods, droughts and water scarcity. The main aim of the work is to assess current and future water availability versus current and future water demands from different economic sectors. Before future challenges can be addressed, a thorough analysis of current water resources is needed. The scope of this study is an analysis of current water resources in Europe and Africa, and matching water supply and water demand from various sectors. Several attempts already have been made to assess European, African and global water resources. Recently, Haddeland et al. (2011) produced a multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance at 0.5o spatial resolution. This has been achieved within the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA), developed in the context of the EU-funded WATCH project (https://gateway.ceh.ac.uk ). Within another EU-funded project GLOWASIS (Global Water Scarcity Information System), Utrecht University and Deltares develop a global water scarcity map also at 0.5o spatial resolution, to be finished Dec 2012 (http://glowasis.eu ). First results are published in Van Beek et al (2011). JRC is partner in this project to benchmark the global product with the higher resolution European and African assessments. A further study was conducted by Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2011), assessing global water scarcity for the world’s major river basins. Other available information on global water resources are available from: • FAO, Aquastat portal http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/globalmaps/index.stm • UNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-availability-groundwater-and-river-flow • Cleaningwater: http://cleaningwater.se/whats-new/geographical-distribution • IWMI Institute: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/WAtlas/Default.aspx • World Resources Institute: http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=265&theme=4 • Monde diplomatique: http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/disponibiliteeau • GRID-Arendal (Africa): http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/africa/ • EEA (Europe): http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-water-availability-per-capita-by-country-2001 In general however, the analysis done in the products described above is done at national scales, at relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5o), and using water demand data from the year 2000 or before, because more recent data are not yet available. The scope of the study presented here, is to carry out an higher spatial resolution analysis for Europe (5 km ~ 0.05o) and Africa (0.1o), using a daily timescale for modelling, and using for Europe new JRC analysis of water uses for irrigation, livestock, industry and energy, and domestic purposes. The analysis is carried out using the JRC LISFLOOD hydrological simulation model, supported by several other available models (EPIC, LUMP).JRC.H-Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Ispra

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

This paper describes the conceptual design of a modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model, cost-supply curves and a forest ownership decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Direct and Indirect Land Use Impacts of the EU Cohesion Policy. Assessment with the Land Use Modelling Platform

The Cohesion policy for the programming period 2014-2020 is analyzed in terms of its likely land use and environmental impacts using the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). This report describes in detail the process and the methodology by which the ex-ante impact assessment was made, and presents the results for Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland. The modelling approach can provide insights on the trade-offs between economic growth, investment policies (such as the Cohesion policy), and land use and the environment. In addition, ways to mitigate potentially negative land use and environmental impacts were explored. The future development of the LUMP is discussed in view of planned future work.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Assessing forest availability for wood supply in Europe

The quantification of forests available for wood supply (FAWS) is essential for decision-making with regard to the maintenance and enhancement of forest resources and their contribution to the global carbon cycle. The provision of harmonized forest statistics is necessary for the development of forest associated policies and to support decision-making. Based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI) data from 13 European countries, we quantify and compare the areas and aboveground dry biomass (AGB) of FAWS and forest not available for wood supply (FNAWS) according to national and reference definitions by determining the restrictions and associated thresholds considered at country level to classify forests as FAWS or FNAWS. FAWS represent between 75 and 95 % of forest area and AGB for most of the countries in this study. Economic restrictions are the main factor limiting the availability of forests for wood supply, accounting for 67 % of the total FNAWS area and 56 % of the total FNAWS AGB, followed by environmental restrictions. Profitability, slope and accessibility as economic restrictions, and protected areas as environmental restrictions are the factors most frequently considered to distinguish between FAWS and FNAWS. With respect to the area of FNAWS associated with each type of restriction, an overlap among the restrictions of 13.7 % was identified. For most countries, the differences in the FNAWS areas and AGB estimates between national and reference definitions ranged from 0 to 5 %. These results highlight the applicability and reliability of a FAWS reference definition for most of the European countries studied, thereby facilitating a consistent approach to assess forests available for supply for the purpose of international reportinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

More green infrastructure is required to maintain ecosystem services under current trends in land-use change in Europe

Green infrastructure (GI), a network of nature, semi-natural areas and green space, delivers essential ecosystem services which underpin human well-being and quality of life. Maintaining ecosystem services through the development of GI is therefore increasingly recognized by policies as a strategy to cope with potentially changing conditions in the future. This paper assessed how current trends of land-use change have an impact on the aggregated provision of eight ecosystem services at the regional scale of the European Union, measured by the Total Ecosystem Services Index (TESI8). Moreover, the paper reports how further implementation of GI across Europe can help maintain ecosystem services at baseline levels. Current demographic, economic and agricultural trends, which affect land use, were derived from the so called Reference Scenario. This scenario is established by the European Commission to assess the impact of energy and climate policy up to 2050. Under the Reference Scenario, economic growth, coupled with the total population, stimulates increasing urban and industrial expansion. TESI8 is expected to decrease across Europe between 0 and 5 % by 2020 and between 10 and 15 % by 2050 relative to the base year 2010. Based on regression analysis, we estimated that every additional percent increase of the proportion of artificial land needs to be compensated with an increase of 2.2 % of land that qualifies as green infrastructure in order to maintain ecosystem services at 2010 levels.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

The Role of Host Genetics in Susceptibility to Influenza: A Systematic Review

Background: The World Health Organization has identified studies of the role of host genetics on susceptibility to severe influenza as a priority. A systematic review was conducted to summarize the current state of evidence on the role of host genetics in susceptibility to influenza (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42011001380). Methods and Findings: PubMed, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and OpenSIGLE were searched using a pre-defined strategy for all entries up to the date of the search. Two reviewers independently screened the title and abstract of 1,371 unique articles, and 72 full text publications were selected for inclusion. Mouse models clearly demonstrate that host genetics plays a critical role in susceptibility to a range of human and avian influenza viruses. The Mx genes encoding interferon inducible proteins are the best studied but their relevance to susceptibility in humans is unknown. Although the MxA gene should be considered a candidate gene for further study in humans, over 100 other candidate genes have been proposed. There are however no data associating any of these candidate genes to susceptibility in humans, with the only published study in humans being under-powered. One genealogy study presents moderate evidence of a heritable component to the risk of influenza-associated death, and while the marked familial aggregation of H5N1 cases is suggestive of host genetic factors, this remains unproven. Conclusion: The fundamental question ‘‘Is susceptibility to severe influenza in humans heritable?’ ’ remains unanswered. No

Identification d'indicateurs de risque des populations victimes de conflits par imagerie satellitaire études de cas : le nord de l'Irak

Remote sensing and security, terms which are not usually associated, have found a common platform this decade with the conjuring of the GMOSS network (Global Monitoring for Security and Stability ), whose mandate is to discover new applications for satellite-derived imagery to security issues. This study focuses on human security, concentrating on the characterisation of vulnerable areas to conflict. A time-series of satellite imagery taken from Landsat sensors from 1987 to 2001 and the SRTM mission imagery are used for this purpose over a site in northern Iraq. Human security issues include the exposure to any type of hazard. The region of study is first characterised in order to understand which hazards are and were present in the past for the region of study. The principal hazard for the region of study is armed conflict and the relative field data was analysed to determine the links between geographical indicators and vulnerable areas. This is done through historical research and the study of open-sourced information about disease outbreaks; the movements of refugees and the internally displaced; and humanitarian aid and security issues. These open sources offer information which are not always consistent, objective, or normalized and are therefore difficult to quantify. A method for the rapid mapping and graphing and subsequent analysis of the situation in a region where limited information is available is developed. This information is coupled with population numbers to create a"risk map": A disaggregated matrix of areas most at risk during conflict situations. The results show that describing the risk factor for a population to the hazard conflict depends on three complex indicators: Population density, remoteness and economic diversity. Each of these complex indicators is then derived from Landsat and SRTM imagery and a satellite-driven model is formulated. This model based on satellite imagery is applied to the study site for a temporal study. The output are three 90 m × 90 m resolution grids which describe, at a pixel level, the risk level within the region for each of the dates studies, and the changes which occur in northern Iraq as the result of the Anfal Campaigns. Results show that satellite imagery, with a minimum of processing, can yield indicators for characterising risk in a region. Although by no means a replacement for field data, this technological source, in the absence of local knowledge, can provide users with a starting point in understanding which areas are most at risk within a region. If this data is coupled with open sourced information such as political and cultural discrimination, economy and agricultural practices, a fairly accurate risk map can be generated in the absence of field data

Identifying and modeling environmental indicators for assessing population vulnerability to conflict using ground and satellite data

Conflicts may be directly responsible for the modification of features in the landscape by causing damage to built-up areas or to the environment. Landscape features may also be indirectly affected by conflict as the result of changes in the way of life of inhabitants and their use of natural resource. Conflict-induced changes in landuse features may thus be associated with changes in population vulnerability. This study focuses on the environmental indicators for population vulnerability, an important parameter contributing to risk assessment during and after conflict. These environmental indicators are first identified using field data and are then derived from satellite data. The satellite-derived indicators are used as model input to create a risk map for two areas in Northern Iraq that were targeted during the Anfal Campaigns in 1987 and 1988: Jafati Valley and the southern region of Dahuk. The satellite-driven model is further applied to three dates for the same study areas: 1987, 1989 and 2000-2001. The output describes the risk level within the region for each of the dates studied, and the changes which occurred in Northern Iraq as the result of the Anfal Campaigns. Results show that spatial-based hazard risk assessment is possible using environmental indicators derived from Earth Observation data. For conflict-driven changes in the Jafati Valley study area, there is an apparent change in human activity, manifested as a conversion from agricultural land to grassland, the harvesting of rural mountainous woodland and the net disappearance of built-up areas. For this study area affected by conflict, 86% of the regions where these land cover changes occur were labelled as being at risk according to the model output. In the second study area, 63% of the changes in land cover occur in the regions labelled as being most vulnerable. Further research on this second study site shows that the area was affected by climatic and economic factors rather than conflict.JRC.G.2-Global security and crisis managemen