The definition of the Reference Scenario, given in the Energy Trends to 2030 publication by DG ENER (2009 update ), assumes full implementation of the Climate and Energy package. The legislation included within the Climate and Energy Package is reflective of the legally binding targets to ensure that the EU meets its climate and energy targets for 2020. This scenario assumes that national targets under the Renewables directive (2009/28/EC) and the GHG Effort-sharing decision (2009/406/EC) are achieved.
The Reference scenario is one of three energy trends scenarios, used so far for the Energy 2050 Roadmap Impact assessment . The scenarios are derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab). The PRIMES model is key to the definition of the scenarios because of its energy focus. The Reference Scenario itself is derived within PRIMES and is supported by other specialised models downstream.
The purpose of this document is to describe how the LUMP was configured in order to be consistent with the PRIMES and other upstream models within the integrated modelling chain, including the incorporation of the legally binding objectives, directives and guidelines. In order to be coherent with the IA accompanying the Communication on the Energy Roadmap 2050, new policies adopted up until March 2010 were implemented in so far as possible. The implementation has not yet been finalized and this document will be refreshed and re-distributed in its final form once the Reference Scenario has been fully configured.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen
