DEBT REFINANCING AND CREDIT RISK

Many firms choose to refinance their debt. We investigate the long run effects of this extended practice on credit ratings and credit spreads. We find that debt refinancing generates systematic rating downgrades unless a minimum firm value growth is observed. Deviations from this growth path imply asymmetric results: A lower value growth generates downgrades and a higher value growth upgrades as expected. However, downgrades will tend to be higher in absolute terms. On the other hand, credit spreads will be independent of the risk free interest rate in the short run, but positively correlated with this rate in the long run.

CREDIT SPREADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ABOUT THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCKS, BONDS AND CDSs

This paper presents a procedure for computing homogeneous measures of credit risk from stocks, bonds and CDSs. The measures are based on bond spreads (BS), CDS spreads (CDS) and implied stock market credit spreads (ICS). We compute these measures for a sample of North American and European firms and find that in most cases, the stock market leads the credit risk discovery process with respect to bond and CDS markets.

Explaining budgetary indiscipline: evidence from spanish municipalities

The quest for political support drives to upward deviations from forecasted public deficits when i) budget procedures are soft, ii) breaking promises involving higher expenditures and lower taxes is costly in political terms, and iii) ex–post control by voters and political opposition is imperfect. This hypothesis is tested using data from Spanish municipalities during the period 1985-1995. Econometric estimates show that single-party majority incumbents are less prone to change forecasted budgets. While their forecasted deficits tend to be higher, they have lower actual deficits, which may be interpreted as the consequence of a higher consistency in the budgetary process. Secondly, upward deviations in deficit tend to rise in election years. While forecasted deficits are not different in election years, actual deficits are. Moreover, elections cause systematic downward deviations in revenues. On the contrary, the ideology of the incumbent is not relevant to explain deviations in deficit. Key words: Budget deficits, local governments, budget procedures, electoral promises. JEL CLASIFFICATION: H74

Debt refinancing and credit risk

Many firms choose to refinance their debt. We investigate the long run effects of this extended practice on credit ratings and credit spreads. We find that debt refinancing generates systematic rating downgrades unless a minimum firm value growth is observed. Deviations from this growth path imply asymmetric results: A lower value growth generates downgrades and a higher value growth upgrades as expected. However, downgrades will tend to be higher in absolute terms. On the other hand, credit spreads will be independent of the risk free interest rate in the short run, but positively correlated with this rate in the long run

Credit spreads: theory and evidence about the information content of stocks, bonds and cdss

This paper presents a procedure for computing homogeneous measures of credit risk from stocks, bonds and CDSs. The measures are based on bond spreads (BS), CDS spreads (CDS) and implied stock market credit spreads (ICS). We compute these measures for a sample of North American and European firms and find that in most cases, the stock market leads the credit risk discovery process with respect to bond and CDS markets

A geometrical view of scalar modulation instability in optical fibers

Full models of scalar modulation instability (MI) in optical fibers available in the literature usually involve complex formulations. In this paper, we present a novel approach to the analysis of MI in optical fibers by means of a simple geometrical description in the power vs. frequency plane. This formulation allows to relate the shape of the MI gain to any arbitrary dispersion profile of the medium, thus providing a simple insight. As a result, we derive a straightforward explanation of the non-trivial dependence of the cutoff power on high-order dispersion and derive explicitly the power that maximizes the gain. Our approach puts forth a tool to synthesize a desired MI gain with the potential application to a number of parametric-amplification and supercontinuum-generation devices whose initial-stage dynamics rely upon modulation instability.Fil: Hernandez, Santiago Martin. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; ArgentinaFil: Fierens, Pablo Ignacio. Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Bonetti, Juan Ignacio. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; ArgentinaFil: Sánchez, Alfredo Daniel. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; ArgentinaFil: Grosz, Diego Fernando. Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica. Gerencia del Área de Energía Nuclear. Instituto Balseiro; Argentina. Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS..

This paper explores the dynamic relationship between stock market implied credit spreads, CDS spreads, and bond spreads. A general VECM representation is proposed for changes in the three credit spread measures which accounts for zero, one, or two independent cointegration equations, depending on the evidence provided by any particular company. Empirical analysis on price discovery, based on a proprietary sample of North American and European firms, and tailored to the specific VECM at hand, indicates that stocks lead CDS and bonds more frequently than the other way round. It likewise confirms the leading role of CDS with respect to bonds.Credit spreads; Price discovery;

Crystal structure of the N-benzyloxycarbonyl-Alanyl-Phenylalanyl-methyl ester: the importance of the H-bonding pattern

Large crystals of the methyl ester of the N-a-benzyloxycarbonyl protected Ala-Phe dipeptide (Z-AF-OMe) were obtained after the very slow evaporation of a solution of the corresponding carboxylic acid (Z-AF-OH) in methanol containing an excess of HCl. The structure was confirmed by single crystal X-ray diffraction data. It crystallizes in the orthorhombic space group P212121 with unit cell dimensions a = 5.0655(6) Å, b = 8.4614(8) Å, c = 46.856(5) Å, V = 2008.3(4) Å3, Z = 4. In the crystal, the molecules form hydrogen bonded chains running along the a axis of the unit cell. Other secondary interactions are also discussed

Phylogenetic Analysis of Araucariaceae: Integrating Molecules, Morphology, and Fossils

Premise of research: Phylogenetic relationships of Araucariaceae (Coniferophyta, Araucariales) are revised on the basis of the first combined data matrix for the family. Methodology: Taxon sampling includes 39 ingroup species (31 extant, 8 fossils) and outgroup species of all the remaining conifer families. Five fossil Araucaria species, one species of the genus Araucarites, and two species of the extinct genera Wairarapaia and Emwadea were included in the analyses. Character sampling includes 23 genomic regions (19 plastid, 2 nuclear, and 2 mitochondrial) and 62 morphological characters (52 discrete and 10 continuous). The phylogenetic analyses were conducted with equally weighted parsimony. Additionally, several analyses under different taxon- and gene-sampling regimes were analyzed for identifying the causes of the long-lasting controversies in the interrelationships of the three extant genera of Araucariaceeae. Pivotal results: Monophyletic Araucariaceae is the sister group of Podocarpaceae, forming the order Araucariales. Monophyly of Araucaria and Agathis is also strongly supported by the data. The results of both molecular and combined analyses indicate that Wollemia and Agathis form a clade (=agathioid clade) sister to Araucaria. Within Araucaria, the analyses support the monophyly of the four currently recognized sections: Araucaria, Bunya, Intermedia, and Eutacta. Results support the monophyly of living and fossil Araucaria (including Araucarites), whereas the remaining extinct genera are placed as the stem of the agathioid clade. In terms of the sensitivity analyses performed, results suggest that inconsistencies among previous results would be related to ingroup sampling. Conclusions: By means of a combined phylogenetic analysis, we have been able to obtain a strongly supported and well-resolved phylogeny of Araucariaceae that includes both living species and fossil species for the group. This study shows the feasibility and usefulness of phylogenetic analyses that incorporate multiple sources of evidence (molecules/morphology, living/fossil species, discrete/continuous characters).Fil: Escapa, Ignacio Hernan. Museo Paleontológico Egidio Feruglio; ArgentinaFil: Catalano, Santiago Andres. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Instituto Superior de Entomología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Tucumán; Argentin

La gestión de la red viaria en ciudades de tamaño medio

Este congreso tivo lugar en París do 11 ao 15 de xuño de 2001