Covid-19 Dynamic Monitoring and Real-Time Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Background: Periodically, humanity is often faced with new and emerging viruses that can be a significant global threat. It has already been over a century post—the Spanish Flu pandemic, and we are witnessing a new type of coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2, which is responsible for Covid-19. It emerged from the city of Wuhan (China) in December 2019, and within a few months, the virus propagated itself globally now resulting more than 50 million cases with over 1 million deaths. The high infection rates coupled with dynamic population movement demands for tools, especially within a Brazilian context, that will support health managers to develop policies for controlling and combating the new virus. / Methods: In this work, we propose a tool for real-time spatio-temporal analysis using a machine learning approach. The COVID-SGIS system brings together routinely collected health data on Covid-19 distributed across public health systems in Brazil, as well as taking to under consideration the geographic and time-dependent features of Covid-19 so as to make spatio-temporal predictions. The data are sub-divided by federative unit and municipality. In our case study, we made spatio-temporal predictions of the distribution of cases and deaths in Brazil and in each federative unit. Four regression methods were investigated: linear regression, support vector machines (polynomial kernels and RBF), multilayer perceptrons, and random forests. We use the percentage RMSE and the correlation coefficient as quality metrics. / Results: For qualitative evaluation, we made spatio-temporal predictions for the period from 25 to 27 May 2020. Considering qualitatively and quantitatively the case of the State of Pernambuco and Brazil as a whole, linear regression presented the best prediction results (thematic maps with good data distribution, correlation coefficient >0.99 and RMSE (%) <4% for Pernambuco and around 5% for Brazil) with low training time: [0.00; 0.04 ms], CI 95%. / Conclusion: Spatio-temporal analysis provided a broader assessment of those in the regions where the accumulated confirmed cases of Covid-19 were concentrated. It was possible to differentiate in the thematic maps the regions with the highest concentration of cases from the regions with low concentration and regions in the transition range. This approach is fundamental to support health managers and epidemiologists to elaborate policies and plans to control the Covid-19 pandemics

COVID-SGIS: A Smart Tool for Dynamic Monitoring and Temporal Forecasting of Covid-19

Background: The global burden of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is increasing at an unprecedented rate. The current spread of Covid-19 in Brazil is problematic causing a huge public health burden to its population and national health-care service. To evaluate strategies for alleviating such problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of cases and deaths in order to aid the stakeholders in the process of making decisions against the disease. We propose a novel system for real-time forecast of the cumulative cases of Covid-19 in Brazil. / Methods: We developed the novel COVID-SGIS application for the real-time surveillance, forecast and spatial visualization of Covid-19 for Brazil. This system captures routinely reported Covid-19 information from 27 federative units from the Brazil.io database. It utilizes all Covid-19 confirmed case data that have been notified through the National Notification System, from March to May 2020. Time series ARIMA models were integrated for the forecast of cumulative number of Covid-19 cases and deaths. These include 6-days forecasts as graphical outputs for each federative unit in Brazil, separately, with its corresponding 95% CI for statistical significance. In addition, a worst and best scenarios are presented. / Results: The following federative units (out of 27) were flagged by our ARIMA models showing statistically significant increasing temporal patterns of Covid-19 cases during the specified day-to-day period: Bahia, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Amapá, Rondônia, where their day-to-day forecasts were within the 95% CI limits. Equally, the same findings were observed for Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, and Santa Catarina. The overall percentage error between the forecasted values and the actual values varied between 2.56 and 6.50%. For the days when the forecasts fell outside the forecast interval, the percentage errors in relation to the worst case scenario were below 5%. / Conclusion: The proposed method for dynamic forecasting may be used to guide social policies and plan direct interventions in a cost-effective, concise, and robust manner. This novel tools can play an important role for guiding the course of action against the Covid-19 pandemic for Brazil and country neighbors in South America

A new, large-bodied omnivorous bat (Noctilionoidea: Mystacinidae) reveals lost morphological and ecological diversity since the Miocene in New Zealand

A new genus and species of fossil bat is described from New Zealand's only pre-Pleistocene Cenozoic terrestrial fauna, the early Miocene St Bathans Fauna of Central Otago, South Island. Bayesian total evidence phylogenetic analysis places this new Southern Hemisphere taxon among the burrowing bats (mystacinids) of New Zealand and Australia, although its lower dentition also resembles Africa's endemic sucker-footed bats (myzopodids). As the first new bat genus to be added to New Zealand's fauna in more than 150 years, it provides new insight into the original diversity of chiropterans in Australasia. It also underscores the significant decline in morphological diversity that has taken place in the highly distinctive, semi-terrestrial bat family Mystacinidae since the Miocene. This bat was relatively large, with an estimated body mass of ~40 g, and its dentition suggests it had an omnivorous diet. Its striking dental autapomorphies, including development of a large hypocone, signal a shift of diet compared with other mystacinids, and may provide evidence of an adaptive radiation in feeding strategy in this group of noctilionoid bats

Effect of good hygiene practices intervention on food safety in senior secondary schools in Ghana

Eleven schools in three different hygiene categories were given hygiene training as an intervention to reported low hygiene standards. Staff hygiene knowledge scores, food temperature, food service time and microbiological quality of jollof rice (cooked rice in tomato sauce and fish) were measured before and after the intervention. Descriptive statistics and Wilcoxon’s Signed- Rank Test for repeated measures on SPSS were used to evaluate the effect of GHP intervention. Staff hygiene knowledge and practice scores, food temperature, aerobic colony count (ACC) and Staphylococcus aureus load in ready to eat (RTE) meal improved significantly (p≤0.05). Food hygiene training remains an essential legal and industrial requirement

Estudio longitudinal de lesiones deportivas en practicantes de gimnasia aeróbica de competición

Introduction: Aerobic gymnastics, since its membership in the International Gymnastics Federation, has undergone changes in its regulations. Objective: To analyze the injuries found in Spanish aerobic gymnastics athletes during different editions of the Code of Points. Methods: A descriptive, longitudinal and compara-tive study was carried out on the epidemiology of injuries in aerobic gymnastics published during different editions of the Code of Points. Results: It highlights that the number of injuries decreased from 156 to 38 last year. This decline has been related to the restriction on the number of difficulties in the exercise and the number of elements to be performed on the floor. However, they have increased the number and value of the difficulties. Conclusions: Therefore, it is concluded that the changes made in the regulations are intended to safeguard the health of athletes and ensure that competition develops at its best artistic and technical aspect.Introdução: A ginástica aeróbica, desde sua adesão à Federação Internacional de Ginástica, passou por mudanças em seus regulamentos. Objetivo: Analisar as lesões encontradas nos atletas espanhóis de ginástica aeróbica durante as diferentes edições do Código de Pontos. Métodos: Realizou-se um estudo descritivo, longitudinal e comparativo sobre a epidemiologia de lesões na ginástica aeróbica publicado durante as diferentes edições do Código de Pontos. Resultados Salienta-se que o número de lesões diminuiu de 156 para 38 no ano passado. Este declínio tem sido relacionado com a limitação do número de dificuldades no exercício e o número de elementos a serem feitos no solo. No entanto, eles aumentaram o número e valor das dificuldades. Conclusões: Portanto, concluiu-se que as modificações feitas nos regulamentos destinam-se a salvaguardar a saúde dos atletas e garantir que a competição se desenvolva no seu melhor aspecto artístico e técnico.Introducción: La gimnasia aeróbica desde su pertenencia a la Federación Internacional de Gimnasia ha sufrido cam-bios en su reglamentación. Objetivo: Analizar las lesiones que los deportistas españoles de gimnasia aeróbica presentaron durante las diferentes ediciones del Código de Puntuación. Métodos: Se ha realizado un estudio descriptivo, longitudinal y comparativo sobre la epidemiología de las lesiones en la gimnasia aeróbica publicado durante las diferentes ediciones del Código de Puntuación. Resultados: El estudio destaca la disminución del número de lesiones, de 156 a 38 en el último año. Esta disminución ha tenido relación con la restricción del número de dificultades en el ejercicio y la cantidad de elementos a realizar en el suelo. Sin embargo, han aumentado el número y el valor de las dificultades. Conclusiones: Por tanto, han concluido que las modificaciones que se realizan en la reglamentación tienen como objetivo velar por la salud de los deportistas y garantizar que la competición se desarrolle en su máximo esplendor artístico y técnico

Immune-neuroendocrine and metabolic disorders in human and experimental T. cruzi infection: New clues for understanding Chagas disease pathology

Studies in mice undergoing acute Trypanosoma cruzi infection and patients with Chagas disease, led to identify several immune-neuroendocrine disturbances and metabolic disorders. Here, we review relevant findings concerning such abnormalities and discuss their possible influence on disease physiopathology.Fil: González, Florencia Belén. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; ArgentinaFil: Villar, Silvina Raquel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; ArgentinaFil: Pacini, María Florencia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; ArgentinaFil: Bottasso, Oscar Adelmo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; ArgentinaFil: Perez, Ana Rosa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; Argentin

A cyclopalladated complex interacts with mitochondrial membrane thiol-groups and induces the apoptotic intrinsic pathway in murine and cisplatin-resistant human tumor cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Systemic therapy for cancer metastatic lesions is difficult and generally renders a poor clinical response. Structural analogs of cisplatin, the most widely used synthetic metal complexes, show toxic side-effects and tumor cell resistance. Recently, palladium complexes with increased stability are being investigated to circumvent these limitations, and a biphosphinic cyclopalladated complex {Pd₂[<it>S_(-)</it>C², N-dmpa]₂(μ-dppe)Cl₂} named C7a efficiently controls the subcutaneous development of B16F10-Nex2 murine melanoma in syngeneic mice. Presently, we investigated the melanoma cell killing mechanism induced by C7a, and extended preclinical studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>B16F10-Nex2 cells were treated <it>in vitro </it>with C7a in the presence/absence of DTT, and several parameters related to apoptosis induction were evaluated. Preclinical studies were performed, and mice were endovenously inoculated with B16F10-Nex2 cells, intraperitoneally treated with C7a, and lung metastatic nodules were counted. The cytotoxic effects and the respiratory metabolism were also determined in human tumor cell lines treated <it>in vitro </it>with C7a.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Cyclopalladated complex interacts with thiol groups on the mitochondrial membrane proteins, causes dissipation of the mitochondrial membrane potential, and induces Bax translocation from the cytosol to mitochondria, colocalizing with a mitochondrial tracker. C7a also induced an increase in cytosolic calcium concentration, mainly from intracellular compartments, and a significant decrease in the ATP levels. Activation of effector caspases, chromatin condensation and DNA degradation, suggested that C7a activates the apoptotic intrinsic pathway in murine melanoma cells. In the preclinical studies, the C7a complex protected against murine metastatic melanoma and induced death in several human tumor cell lineages <it>in vitro</it>, including cisplatin-resistant ones. The mitochondria-dependent cell death was also induced by C7a in human tumor cells.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The cyclopalladated C7a complex is an effective chemotherapeutic anticancer compound against primary and metastatic murine and human tumors, including cisplatin-resistant cells, inducing apoptotic cell death via the intrinsic pathway.</p

Pharmaceutical services for endemic situations in the Brazilian Amazon: organization of services and prescribing practices for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum non-complicated malaria in high-risk municipalities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In spite of the fact that pharmaceutical services are an essential component of all malaria programmes, quality of these services has been little explored in the literature. This study presents the first results of the application of an evaluation model of pharmaceutical services in high-risk municipalities of the Amazon region, focusing on indicators regarding organization of services and prescribing according to national guidelines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A theoretical framework of pharmaceutical services for non-complicated malaria was built based on the Rapid Evaluation Method (WHO). The framework included organization of services and prescribing, among other activities. The study was carried out in 15 primary health facilities in six high-risk municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon. Malaria individuals ≥ 15 years old were approached and data was collected using specific instruments. Data was checked by independent reviewers and fed to a data bank through double-entry. Descriptive variables were analyzed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A copy of the official treatment guideline was found in 80% of the facilities; 67% presented an environment for receiving and prescribing patients. Re-supply of stocks followed a different timeline; no facilities adhered to forecasting methods for stock management. No shortages or expired anti-malarials were observed, but overstock was a common finding. On 86.7% of facilities, the average of good storage practices was 48%. Time between diagnosis and treatment was zero days. Of 601 patients interviewed, 453 were diagnosed for <it>Plasmodium vivax</it>; of these, 99.3% received indications for the first-line scheme. Different therapeutic schemes were given to <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>patients. Twenty-eight (4.6%) out of 601 were prescribed regimens not listed in the national guideline. Only 5.7% individuals received a prescription or a written instruction of any kind.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results show that while diagnostic procedure is well established and functioning in the Brazilian malaria programme, prescribing is still an activity that is actually not performed. The absence of physicians and poor integration between malaria services and primary health services make for the lack of a prescription or written instruction for malaria patients throughout the Brazilian Amazon. This fact may lead to a great number of problems in rational use and in adherence to medication.</p

Microcalcifications in breast cancer: novel insights into the molecular mechanism and functional consequence of mammary mineralisation.

BACKGROUND: Mammographic microcalcifications represent one of the most reliable features of nonpalpable breast cancer yet remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. METHODS: We report a novel model to investigate the in vitro mineralisation potential of a panel of mammary cell lines. Primary mammary tumours were produced by implanting tumourigenic cells into the mammary fat pads of female BALB/c mice. RESULTS: Hydroxyapatite (HA) was deposited only by the tumourigenic cell lines, indicating mineralisation potential may be associated with cell phenotype in this in vitro model. We propose a mechanism for mammary mineralisation, which suggests that the balance between enhancers and inhibitors of physiological mineralisation are disrupted. Inhibition of alkaline phosphatase and phosphate transport prevented mineralisation, demonstrating that mineralisation is an active cell-mediated process. Hydroxyapatite was found to enhance in vitro tumour cell migration, while calcium oxalate had no effect, highlighting potential consequences of calcium deposition. In addition, HA was also deposited in primary mammary tumours produced by implanting the tumourigenic cells into the mammary fat pads of female BALB/c mice. CONCLUSION: This work indicates that formation of mammary HA is a cell-specific regulated process, which creates an osteomimetic niche potentially enhancing breast tumour progression. Our findings point to the cells mineralisation potential and the microenvironment regulating it, as a significant feature of breast tumour development

EGF functionalized polymer-coated gold nanoparticles promote EGF photostability and EGFR internalization for photothermal therapy

The application of functionalized nanocarriers on photothermal therapy for cancer ablation has wide interest. The success of this application depends on the therapeutic efficiency and biocompatibility of the system, but also on the stability and biorecognition of the conjugated protein. This study aims at investigating the hypothesis that EGF functionalized polymer -coated gold nanoparticles promote EGF photostability and EGFR internalization, making these conjugated particles suitable for photothermal therapy. The conjugated gold nanoparticles (100-200 nm) showed a plasmon absorption band located within the near infrared range (650-900 nm), optimal for photothermal therapy applications. The effects of temperature, of polymer-coated gold nanoparticles and of UVB light (295nm) on the fluorescence properties of EGF have been investigated with steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy. The fluorescence properties of EGF, including the formation of Trp and Tyr photoproducts, is modulated by temperature and by the intensity of the excitation light. The presence of polymeric-coated gold nanoparticles reduced or even avoided the formation of Trp and Tyr photoproducts when EGF is exposed to UVB light, protecting this way the structure and function of EGF. Cytotoxicity studies of conjugated nanoparticles carried out in normal-like human keratinocytes showed small, concentration dependent decreases in cell viability (0-25%). Moreover, conjugated nanoparticles could activate and induce the internalization of overexpressed Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor in human lung carcinoma cells. In conclusion, the gold nanoparticles conjugated with Epidermal Growth Factor and coated with biopolymers developed in this work, show a potential application for near infrared photothermal therapy, which may efficiently destroy solid tumours, reducing the damage of the healthy tissue.Support was provided by: Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) for the financial support under the project reference PTDC/BBB-BMC/0611/2012 [https://www.fct.pt/apoios/projectos)]. The work at CBMA was supported by the strategic programme UID/BIA/04050/2013 (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007569) funded by national funds through the FCT I.P. and by the ERDF through the COMPETE2020 - Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalizacao (POCI) [https://www.fct.pt/apoios/projectos]; European Commission through the project H2020-644242-SAPHELY (https://saphely.eu/project.php) and the project H2020-634013-2-PHOCNOSIS [http://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/193268_en.html].The authors would like to thank Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) for the financial support under the project reference PTDC/BBB-BMC/0611/2012. The work at CBMA was supported by the strategic programme UID/BIA/04050/2013 (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007569) funded by national funds through the FCT I.P. and by the ERDF through the COMPETE2020 - Programa Operacional Competitividade e Internacionalizacao (POCI). The authors acknowledge the funding from the European Commission through the project H2020-644242-SAPHELY and the project H2020-634013-2-PHOCNOSIS. Finally, the authors would also like to thank the master student Joao Lopes from Universidade Lusofona (Portugal) for the help with in vitro cytotoxic assays. Isabel Correia acknowledges FCT for Investigator FCT contract.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio