The Socioeconomic Determinants of Terrorism: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

This paper introduces model uncertainty into the empirical study of the determinants of terrorism at country level. This is done by adopting a Bayesian model averaging approach and accounting for the over-dispersed count data nature of terrorist attacks. Both a broad measure of terrorism and incidents per capita have been analyzed. Our results suggest that, among the set of regressors considered, those reflecting labor market conditions and economic prospects tend to receive high posterior inclusion probabilities. These findings are robust to changes in the model specification and sample composition and are not meaningfully affected by the generalized linear regression model applied. Evidence of a geographically heterogeneous relationship between terrorism and its determinants is also provided. Abbreviation: BMA- Bayesian Model Averaging; GLM- Generalized Linear Models

The impact of the American Civil War on city growth

This paper analyses the persistence of the shock caused by the American Civil War on the relative city size distribution of the USA. Two features make the study of this conflict interesting. First, it took place at an earlier stage of the industrialisation and urbanisation processes than those previously analysed in the related literature. Second, the battles were fought in the open field, not in urban areas. In line with previous results for the Second World War in Japanese and German cities, our findings suggest that the effects of the shock were transitory. Furthermore, some evidence regarding the possible presence of a ‘safe harbour effect’ is reported

Eurozone Membership and Foreign Direct Investment

Our aim in this chapter is to estimate the effects of European Monetary Union (EMU) membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). Previous literature on the cross-border impact of a common currency have concentrated on international trade effects. Our analysis is based on the gravity model, which has been successfully applied to explain most forms of bilateral cross-border flows. We estimate a structural gravity model using data for 34 OECD countries between 1985 and 2013 for bilateral FDI. We use a variety of econometric techniques to ensure the robustness of our findings including stock as well as flow measures of FDI and addressing selection issues. Our estimates of the impact of EMU underlines the role of FDI as a channel for benefits from deep economic integration between countries. The effect of EMU membership on FDI is estimated to be significant and positive, at around 130%

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Changes in the transmission of monetary policy during crisis episodes: evidence from the Euro area and the U.S.

This paper proposes a bank-based theoretical model for the credit market that accommodates different types of creditors. The equilibrium relationships between monetary aggregates, credit interest rates and real income are derived from banks' optimizing behavior. This model is used to theoretically establish the effects of a crisis on the bank lending channel and, more specifically, on the equilibrium relationships between the main economic and monetary variables. The model is also used to explore the potential effects of unconventional monetary policies focused on reducing risk aversion during crisis episodes. These effects are empirically assessed applying cointegration techniques to macroeconomic data of the euro area and the United States before and after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers. The results support the efficacy of unconventional measures in restoring the conventional transmission channels between monetary aggregates but shed some doubts on the ability of these measures to boost economic activity

Genetic characterization of Escherichia coli isolated from cattle carcasses and feces in Mexico State

Meat of bovine origin is one of the major vehicles in the transmission of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) to human consumers. This pathogen can produce serious human illness, including bloody diarrhea and hemolytic uremic syndrome. The aim of the current study was to characterize E. coli isolates (mainly VTEC strains) belonging to several serotypes in samples from cattle carcasses and feces of three municipal slaughter plants from Mexico State. The genetic diversity and molecular relatedness among the isolates was evaluated with multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA). To our knowledge, and with the exception of E. coli O157:H7, this is the first time that serotypes analyzed here have been subtyped by MLVA in Mexico. MLVA typing grouped the 37 strains from this study into 30 distinct genotypes, 26 of which were unique. These findings indicate that cattle carcasses and feces from slaughter plants in Mexico are a source of VTEC that are genetically diverse in terms of serotypes and virulence profiles. The presence of these pathogens in carcasses indicates the high probability of the spread of VTEC strains during slaughter and processing. Copyright �, International Association for Food Protection