The HIV epidemic and prevention response in Tigrai, Ethiopia: a synthesis at sub-national level

BACKGROUND: This study, the first of its kind carried out at sub-national level in Ethiopia, was conducted in order to understand the dynamics of HIV transmission at regional and district level in Tigrai, Ethiopia; and to assess the adequacy of the HIV prevention response. METHODS: Routine data from health centres, data from available published and grey literature and studies, and primary qualitative information were triangulated to draw an updated picture of the HIV epidemic, HIV response and resource allocation in Tigrai. RESULTS: HIV prevalence in Tigrai was 1.8% in 2011 (EDHS). ANC data show that there has been a continuous decline in the prevalence of HIV in both urban and rural areas (urban: 14.9% in 2001 to 5.0% in 2009; rural: 5.2% in 2001 to 1.3% in 2009, ANC surveillance data). Variability in prevalence by zone and by district was observed. Possible reasons for higher prevalence include the presence of mobile seasonal workers, highly urbanized centres, a high concentration of economic activity and connecting roads and large commercial farms. Sex workers, seasonal farm workers and HIV negative partners in discordant couples were identified as being at higher risk. There is no evidence that programme planning is done on the basis of geographical variations in HIV prevalence and there are gaps in programmes and services for certain high risk population groups. CONCLUSION: Considerable efforts have been invested in the HIV prevention response in Tigrai however, these efforts do not fully respond to the actual needs. For a more effective and targeted HIV prevention response, studies and data syntheses need to be carried out at sub-national level in order to accurately identify local specificities and plan accordingly. Resources should be targeted towards areas where transmission is linked to sex work, mobility and the mobile labour workforce

Utilization of antiretroviral treatment in Ethiopia between February and December 2006: spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health (MOH) started to implement a national antiretroviral treatment (ART) program. Using data in the monthly HIV/AIDS Updates issued by the MOH, this paper examines the spatial and temporal distribution of ART on a population basis for Ethiopian towns and administrative zones and regions for the period February to December 2006.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 101 public ART hospitals treated 44,446 patients and the 91 ART health centers treated 1,599 patients in December 2006. The number of patients currently receiving ART doubled between February and December 2006 and the number of female patients aged 15 years and older surpassed male patients, apparently due to increased awareness and provision of free ART. Of 58,405 patients who ever started ART in December 2006, 46,045 (78.8%) were adhering to treatment during that month. Population coverage of ART was highest in the three urban administrative regions of Addis Ababa, Harari and Dire Dawa, in regional centers with referral hospitals, and in several small road side towns that had former mission or other NGO-operated hospitals. Hospitals in Addis Ababa had the largest patient loads (on average 850 patients) and those in SNNPR (Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples Republic) (212 patients) and Somali (130 patients) regions the fewest patients. In bivariate tests, number of patients receiving treatment was significantly correlated with population size of towns, urban population per zone, number of hospitals per zone, and duration of ART services in 2006 (all p < 0.001). The stronger relationship with urban than total zonal populations (p < 0.001 versus p = 0.014) and the positive correlation between distance from 44 health centers to the nearest ART hospital and patients receiving treatment at these health centers may be due to a combination of differential accessibility of ART sites, patient knowledge and health-seeking behavior.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The sharp increase in ART uptake in 2006 is largely due to the rapid increase in the provision of free treatment at more sites. The marked variation in ART utilization patterns between urban and rural communities and among zones and regions requires further studies. Recommendations are made for further expansion and sustainability of the ART scale-up.</p

Bibliography on HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia and Ethiopians in the Diaspora: The 2015 Update

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Membership dropout rates and associated factors in a community-based health insurance scheme in southern Ethiopia: a mixed method study

BackgroundDropout from community-based health insurance (CBHI) membership is a common problem in low-income countries, even if its implementation leads to substantial improvement in the utilization of essential health services. Few studies have addressed the factors contributing to dropout rates in southern Ethiopia. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the rate of CBHI dropout in southern Ethiopia as well as any contributing factors.MethodsThis mixed-method cross-sectional study was conducted among 460 randomly selected CBHI-enrolled households at the Arba Minch Health and Demography Surveillance System site from November 1, 2021, to April 30, 2022. The quantitative data were collected by an open data kit (ODK). using an interviewer-based structured questionnaire and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.0. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to identify significant variables. The qualitative data were used to support the quantitative findings and were gathered through in-depth interviews (by the CBHI coordinator and three purposively selected health extension workers) and focus group discussions (in two randomly selected villages). The qualitative data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Finally, triangulation was used to present both the quantitative and qualitative findings.ResultsThis study found that 92 (21.5%) people stopped their community-based health insurance membership. The presence of sick adults [AOR = 0.281, 95% CI (0.136–0.581)], trust of participants in the contracted health facilities [AOR = 0.227, 95% CI (0.121–0.436)], and poor knowledge of the participants [AOR = 5.518, 95% CI (1.526–19.950)] were significant predictors.ConclusionThe magnitude of the dropout rate was high in this study when compared with the national target. The absence of a sick adult, the absence of trust among participants, and the poor knowledge status of the participants were significant predictors. We suggest that the health facility managers, the CBHI coordinating office, and the district health office give priority to implementing a wide range of knowledge improvement activities and a transparent system in public health facilities. Studies with longitudinal research designs are called for at a wide range of national levels to address the limitations of this study

Health-Related Quality of Life and Adherence to Physical Activity and Screen Time Recommendations in Schoolchildren: Longitudinal Cohort Ciao Corona

Objectives: We investigated changes in adherence to physical activity (PA) and screen time (ST) recommendations of children and adolescents throughout the pandemic, and their association with health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Methods: 1,769 primary (PS, grades 1–6) and secondary (SS, 7–9) school children from Ciao Corona, a school-based cohort study in Zurich, Switzerland, with five questionnaires 2020–2022. HRQOL was assessed using the KINDL questionnaire. PA (≥60 min/day moderate-to-vigorous PA) and ST (≤2 h/day ST) recommendations followed WHO guidelines. Results: Adherence to PA recommendations dropped in 2020 (83%–59% PS, 77%–52% SS), but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2022 (79%, 66%). Fewer children met ST recommendations in 2020 (74% PS, 29% SS) and 2021 (82%, 37%) than pre-pandemic (95%, 68%). HRQOL decreased 3 points between 2020 and 2022, and was 9.7 points higher (95% CI 3.0–16.3) in March 2021 in children who met both versus no recommendations. Conclusion: Adherence to WHO guidelines on PA and ST during the pandemic had a consistent association with HRQOL despite longitudinal changes in behavior

Cigarette smoking prevalence and associated factors among college students, Amhara, Ethiopia

Introduction:&nbsp;tobacco is the only legal drug that kills many of its users when used exactly as intended by the manufacturers. It is estimated that of the 1.1 billion smokers worldwide, nearly 80% of them live in low and middle-income countries. This trend increases in college and university students with most smokers starting to smoke during adolescent. The aim of this study is to assess cigarette smoking prevalence and associated factors among a select group of college of teachers´ education students. Methods:&nbsp;a cross-sectional study was conducted. Multistage sampling was used to select 605 study participants from across the eight departments of the Injibara College of Teachers´ Education. Each subject was selected by simple random sampling technique after proportional allocation to each class. EpiData version 4.2 was used for data entry and Stata version 14 was used for data cleaning and analysis. Variables with p-value &lt; 0.2 in bi-variable analysis were selected for multi-variable analysis. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported to show the strength of association. Results:&nbsp;the current prevalence of cigarette smoking is 6.8% amongst the Injibara College of Teachers´ Education students. Males [AOR: 2.84 (95% CI: 1.13, 7.14)], divorced marital status [AOR: 7.27 (95% CI: 1.23, 42.85)], food source in hostel [AOR: 11.62 (95% CI 3.23, 41.71)] and exposure to family/other smokers [AOR: 6.17 (95% CI: 2.17, 16.06)] were statistically significant factors for cigarette smoking. Conclusion:&nbsp;the prevalence of cigarette smoking was relatively low. Male, marital status, source of food, and exposure to family/other smokers were identified associated factors. Policy makers and health regulatory body are strongly encouraged to consider this evidence and the associated factors for smoking in their efforts to develop and implement tobacco control laws

Ethiopia climate-smart agriculture roadmap

This roadmap is developed based on a context analysis of Ethiopian agriculture. The roadmap aims to strengthen the role of the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) in addressing vulnerabilities facing the agriculture sector under changing climatic conditions by institutionalizing climate-smart agriculture. The roadmap is largely informed by the overarching country Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy; review of scientific literature; sectoral documents on Ethiopian agriculture and climate-smart agriculture; and related reports from government, development partners, scientific publications, expert comments on the draft and inputs obtained from several senior experts on two presentations made during climate-smart agriculture platform meetings conducted in May and November 2019

One Hundred Priority Questions for the Development of Sustainable Food Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an expected doubling of human population and tripling of food demand over the next quarter century, posing a range of severe environmental, political, and socio-economic challenges. In some cases, key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are in direct conflict, raising difficult policy and funding decisions, particularly in relation to trade-offs between food production, social inequality, and ecosystem health. In this study, we used a horizon-scanning approach to identify 100 practical or research-focused questions that, if answered, would have the greatest positive impact on addressing these trade-offs and ensuring future productivity and resilience of food-production systems across sub-Saharan Africa. Through direct canvassing of opinions, we obtained 1339 questions from 331 experts based in 55 countries. We then used online voting and participatory workshops to produce a final list of 100 questions divided into 12 thematic sections spanning topics from gender inequality to technological adoption and climate change. Using data on the background of respondents, we show that perspectives and priorities can vary, but they are largely consistent across different professional and geographical contexts. We hope these questions provide a template for establishing new research directions and prioritising funding decisions in sub-Saharan Africa

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction : an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

Background Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. Methods Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. Results Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older. Conclusions Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation