Application of multi-agent games to the prediction of financial time-series

We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to the possibility of identifying profit opportunities, the technique may prove useful in the development of improved risk management strategies.Comment: Work presented at the NATO Workshop on Econophysics. Prague (Feb 2001). To appear in Physica

Consumer Actions and Attitudes Regarding Initiatives Directed towards Sustainability: Assessing Gender and Generational Gaps

A demographically and geographically representative sample of 1,243 adult residents of the United States provided input regarding 33 issues germane to both green marketing and green consumption. This diverse array of behaviors and opinions addressed both sides of the buyer-seller dyad. From the buyers’ perspective, respondents reported a high propensity to engage in recycling, donate used goods, and purchase products with a longer life expectancy. As for organizational actions, the respondents favored environmentally-friendly actions such as focusing on cleaner and more efficient energy alternatives. There was a strong belief that individuals can make a difference. Comparisons on the bases of gender and generational cohort membership documented significant differences for a number of the 33 issues under scrutiny. Gender produced statistically significant differences between men and women for two of the 11 personal green consumption behaviors. Women were more inclined to purchase second hand items, and from a similar perspective, they were more prone to donate items with a remaining useful life rather than simply discard them in the trash. Regarding the subset of 22 issues related to their attitudes regarding the green issues germane to consumers and marketers, significant differences between the two sexes were in evidence for 15 of the 22 issues. An investigation focusing on generational membership documented 13 issues where there was a significant difference across the five groups. A proposed typology allowed respondents to place themselves in the category that they deemed to best fit themselves. Fully 65.1 percent of the respondents placed themselves in the centrist category – eco-aware. Only 2.0 percent deemed themselves to be eco-destroyers while 9.2 percent, a metric that environmentalists might find somewhat disappointing, placed themselves at the other end of the spectrum – as eco-warriors

An Urgent Plea for More Graduate Programs in Statistics Education

Lately, much has been written about the importance of amplifying statistics-related content in the K-12 curricula. This can be viewed in parallel or as an addendum to the existing mathematics curricula in the United States. Nevertheless, a key component of this debate is the lack of robust and cutting-edge academic programs in statistics education. In this piece, we emphasize the urgent need for investing in creating strong statistics education programs, which would significantly contribute to nurturing quantitative literacy as well as preparing a more informed citizenry in the 21st century

Assessing the Market for Poultry Litter in Georgia: Are Subsidies Needed to Protect Water Quality?

Concerns about nutrient loads into our waters have focused attention on poultry litter applications. Like many states with a large poultry industry, Georgia recently designed a subsidy program to facilitate the transportation of poultry litter out of vulnerable watersheds. This paper uses a transportation model to examine the necessity of a poultry litter subsidy to achieve water protection goals in Georgia. We also demonstrate the relationship between diesel and synthetic fertilizer prices and the value of poultry litter. Results suggest that a well functioning market would be able to remove excess litter from vulnerable watersheds in the absence of a subsidy.fertilizer, phosphorous, poultry litter, subsidy, transportation model, water quality, Environmental Economics and Policy, Marketing, Q12, Q13, Q25, Q53,

Suppression of 2\pi\ phase-slip due to hidden zero modes in one dimensional topological superconductors

We study phase slips in one-dimensional topological superconducting wires. These wires have been proposed as building blocks for topologically protected qubits in which the quantum information is distributed over the length of the device and thus is immune to local sources of decoherence. However, phase-slips are non-local events that can result in decoherence. Phase slips in topological superconductors are peculiar for the reason that they occur in multiples of 4\pi\ (instead of 2\pi\ in conventional superconductors). We re-establish this fact via a beautiful analogy to the particle physics concept of dynamic symmetry breaking by explicitly finding a "hidden" zero mode in the fermion spectrum computed in the background of a 2\pi\ phase-slip. Armed with the understanding of phase-slips in topological superconductors, we propose a simple experimental setup with which the predictions can be tested by monitoring tunneling rate of a superconducting flux quantum through a topological superconducting wire.Comment: 18 pages,14 figures, Updated referenc

Health and Well-being

Non peer reviewe

SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELING FOR ARID ADAPTED HABITAT SPECIALISTS IN ZION NATIONAL PARK

The Arizona toad (Anaxyrus microscaphus) and Jones’ waxy dogbane (Cycladenia humilis var. jonesii) are habitat specialists with historical ranges in the desert southwest and specifically, Zion National Park (ZION). The machine learning method, MaxEnt, constructed species distribution models (SDMs) in ZION for the two study species at 30 m and 900 m spatial resolutions using climate, topographic, and remotely sensed data. Additionally, 900 m forecasting models were constructed to observe the shifts in suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2070, based off two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Results indicate promising predictive power for both high resolution models (30m) for C. humilis var. jonesii and A. microscaphus with area under curve (AUC) test analysis of 0.715 and 0.810, respectively. Forecasting models displayed decreasing suitability for A. microscaphus with both climate scenarios applied to the model. However, C. humilis var. jonesii habitat increased with future scenarios applied to the MaxEnt models

Real-Time Quality Control (QC) Processing, Notification, and Visualization Services, Supporting Data Management of the Intelligent River

2010 S.C. Water Resources Conferences - Science and Policy Challenges for a Sustainable Futur