Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR

Setup and swash on a natural beach

Wave setup and swash statistics were calculated from 154 runup time series steep beach under incident waves varying from 0.4 to 4.0 m significant wave height. incident wave height, setup, swash height, and total runup (the sum of setup and were found to vary linearly with the surf zone similarity parameter ξ₀ = β(H₀/L₀)¯½ slope appeared the appropriate value for the calculation of ξ₀, although the setup influence of an offshore bar at low tide. For low Irribaren numbers the swash frequency band becomes saturated, while for high Irribaren numbers, no such seen. Thus the infragravity band appears to become dominant in the swash below these data, that value is approximately 1.75, although there is considerable scatter associated with that estimate

Wave energy saturation on a natural beach of variable slope

Time series of flow were measured across the inner surf zone during a storm. These data were used to quantify the dependence of wave height (transformed from measured flow) and velocity on local slope and depth. Similar to previous studies, as incident waves broke and propagated into the surf zone, wave energy became saturated, and wave height was strongly dependent on depth. However, the ratio of rms wave height to local depth (Yrms) was found not to be constant but to vary between 0.29 and 0.55; Yrms increased with local slope and was independent of deepwater wave steepness. Thus the surf zone similarity parameter (the ratio of slope to the square root of steepness) did not adequately parameterize Yrms

Infragravity waves over a natural barred profile

Measurements of cross-shore flow were made across the surf zone during a storm as a nearshore bar became better developed and migrated offshore. Measured infragravity band spectra were compared to synthetic spectra calculated numerically over the natural barred profile assuming a white run-up spectrum of leaky mode or high-mode edge waves. As in earlier studies, the spectra compared closely; however, for some frequencies the energy of the measured spectrum exceeded the energy of the synthetic spectrum, suggesting that the run-up spectrum was not white but had dominating frequencies. Utilizing cross-shore flow data and synthetic spectra from a number of cross-shore locations, an equivalent run-up spectrum was calculated for each day. On the first day of the storm, the equivalent run-up spectrum indicated a dominant wave that had a node in velocity reasonably close to the bar crest. Later during the storm, when the bar had migrated farther offshore, there was no evidence for a dominant motion having a velocity node at the bar crest. The structure of the equivalent run-up spectrum compared well with spectra of direct measurements of run-up obtained several hundred meters away. We have no clear evidence in support of the theory that infragravity waves might form or force the offshore migration of a bar. To confirm this finding, longer records obtained synoptically over a developing bar are required. The dominant wave observed early in the storm was consistent with Symond and Bowen’s (1984) theoretical prediction of resonant amplification of discrete frequencies over a barred profile

Differences in assigning probabilities to coastal inundation hazard estimators: event versus response approaches

This is the accepted version of the following article: Sanuy, M, Jiménez, JA, Ortego, MI, Toimil, A. Differences in assigning probabilities to coastal inundation hazard estimators: Event versus response approaches. J Flood Risk Management. 2020; 13 (Suppl. 1):e12557. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12557, which has been published in final form at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jfr3.12557.Coastal flood risk assessment requires a reliable estimation of the frequency of inundation hazards, that is, characterising the hazard magnitude and assigning a probability of occurrence. In this work we analyse the uncertainty introduced in the assessment associated to the method to assign the probability of occurrence to coastal flood hazards. To this end we have compared the use of two general methods, the response and the event approaches. Different procedures are used to characterise coastal inundation hazards depending on the analysis scale and data availability. Thus, a range of possibilities has been analysed, from simple estimators such as run-up to modelled flood-prone areas. The analysis has been performed for all wave and water level conditions around the Spanish coast. The results show that the differences between the methods are location-dependent, and thus, determined by the exposure to wave and water level conditions. When using the event approach, the run-up or total water level (with good correlation between waves and surge) distributions reasonably approximate those of the response approach with low associated uncertainty. When the assessment aims to output overtopping discharges or inundation maps, observed differences suggest that the event approach would produce misleading conclusions in inundation-related coastal management and decision-making.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Time-Varying Emulator for Short and Long-Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential

Rising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run‐up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea‐state parameters associated with the present‐day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto‐regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea‐state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large‐scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century

Predicting Climate-Driven Coastlines With a Simple and Efficient Multiscale Model

Ocean-basin-scale climate variability produces shifts in wave climates and water levels affecting the coastlines of the basin. Here we present a hybrid shoreline change?foredune erosion model (A COupled CrOss-shOre, loNg-shorE, and foreDune evolution model, COCOONED) intended to inform coastal planning and adaptation. COCOONED accounts for coupled longshore and cross-shore processes at different timescales, including sequencing and clustering of storm events, seasonal, interannual, and decadal oscillations by incorporating the effects of integrated varying wave action and water levels for coastal hazard assessment. COCOONED is able to adapt shoreline change rates in response to interactions between longshore transport, cross-shore transport, water level variations, and foredune erosion. COCOONED allows for the spatial and temporal extension of survey data using global data sets of waves and water levels for assessing the behavior of the shoreline at multiple time and spatial scales. As a case study, we train the model in the period 2004?2014 (11 years) with seasonal topographic beach profile surveys from the North Beach Sub-cell (NBSC) of the Columbia River Littoral Cell (Washington, USA).We explore the shoreline response and foredune erosion along 40 km of beach at several timescales during the period 1979?2014 (35 years), revealing an accretional trend producing reorientation of the beach, cross-shore accretional, and erosional periods through time (breathing) and alternating beach rotations that are correlated with climate indices.J. A. A. Antolínez and F. J. Méndez acknowledge the support of the Spanish “Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad” under Grant BIA2014-59643-R

Characterising beach intertidal bar systems using multi-annual LiDAR data

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Miles, A., Ilic, S., Whyatt, D., & James, M. R. (2019). Characterising beach intertidal bar systems using multi‐annual LiDAR data. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4594. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-ArchivingIntertidal bars are common in meso-macrotidal low-to-moderate energy coastal environments and an understanding of their morphodynamics is important from the perspective of both coastal scientists and managers. However, previous studies have typically been limited by considering bar systems two-dimensionally, or with very limited alongshore resolution. This paper presents the first multi-annual study of intertidal alongshore bars and troughs in a macro-tidal environment using airborne LiDAR data to extract three-dimensional bar morphology at high resolution. Bar and trough positions are mapped along a 17.5 km stretch of coastline in the northwest of England on the eastern Irish Sea, using eight complete, and one partial, LiDAR surveys spanning 17 years. Typically, 3 – 4 bars are present, with significant obliquity identified in their orientation. This orientation mirrors the alignment of waves from the dominant south-westerly direction of wave approach, undergoing refraction as they approach the shoreline. Bars also become narrower and steeper as they migrate onshore, in a pattern reminiscent of wave shoaling. This suggests that the configuration of the bars is being influenced by overlying wave activity. Net onshore migration is present for the entire coastline, though rates vary alongshore, and periods of offshore migration may occur locally, with greatest variability between northern and southern regions of the coastline. This work highlights the need to consider intertidal bar systems as three-dimensional, particularly on coastlines with complex configurations and bathymetry, as localised studies of bar migration can overlook three-dimensional behaviour. Furthermore, the wider potential of LiDAR data in enabling high-resolution morphodynamic studies is clear, both within the coastal domain and beyond