Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Ten golden rules for optimal antibiotic use in hospital settings: the WARNING call to action

Antibiotics are recognized widely for their benefits when used appropriately. However, they are often used inappropriately despite the importance of responsible use within good clinical practice. Effective antibiotic treatment is an essential component of universal healthcare, and it is a global responsibility to ensure appropriate use. Currently, pharmaceutical companies have little incentive to develop new antibiotics due to scientific, regulatory, and financial barriers, further emphasizing the importance of appropriate antibiotic use. To address this issue, the Global Alliance for Infections in Surgery established an international multidisciplinary task force of 295 experts from 115 countries with different backgrounds. The task force developed a position statement called WARNING (Worldwide Antimicrobial Resistance National/International Network Group) aimed at raising awareness of antimicrobial resistance and improving antibiotic prescribing practices worldwide. The statement outlined is 10 axioms, or “golden rules,” for the appropriate use of antibiotics that all healthcare workers should consistently adhere in clinical practice

In vivo interaction of lead with aminolevulinic acid dehydratase and induction of a thermolabile factor: an experimental model.

Aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALA-D) activity of male albino Wistar rats was used as an experimental model for a study on the interaction of lead with biological systems. Lead at 1 mg/kg was administered i.p. and the rats were killed immediately, and at 30 min, 1, 2, 3, and 4 h after treatment. It was shown that lead (Pb) interacted directly with the enzyme molecule immediately after treatment, first on the active site of zinc (Zn) and then on the thiolic groups. Induction of the so-called thermolabile factor (TF) seemed to occur later, i.e., it may only be shown from the 2nd-3rd h after treatment. The long-term persistence of lead-induced TF in the acute phase of intoxication may be the key to the interpretation of some chronic toxic effects

Improved temporal trends of vaccination coverage rates in childhood after the mandatory vaccination act, italy 2014–2019

Maintaining high vaccine coverage (VC) for pediatric vaccinations is crucial to ensure herd immunity, reducing the risk of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD). The Italian vaccination Law (n. 119/2017) reinforced mandates for polio, diphtheria, tetanus, and hepatitis B, extending the mandate to pertussis, Haemophilus influenzae type b, chickenpox, measles, mumps, and rubella, for children up to 16 years of age. We analyzed the national temporal trends of childhood immunization rates from 2014 to 2019 to evaluate the impact of the mandatory reinforcement law set in 2017 as a sustainable public health strategy in Italy. In a 3-year period, 9 of the 10 compulsory vaccinations reached the threshold of 95% and VC for chicken pox increased up to 90.5%, significantly. During the same period, the recommended vaccinations (against meningococcus B and C, pneumococcus, and rotavirus) also recorded a significant increase in VC trends. In conclusion, although the reinforcement of compulsory vaccination generated a wide public debate that was amplified by traditional and social media, the 3-year evaluation highlights positive results

Digital Information Approach through Social Media among Gen Z and Millennials: The Global Scenario during the COVID-19 Pandemic

An infodemic represents a concern for public health, influencing the general population’s perceptions of key health issues. Misinformation is rapidly spread by social media, particularly among young generations. We used data from the WHO “Social Media and COVID-19” study, which was conducted in 24 countries worldwide on over 23,000 subjects aged 18–40 years, to explore Generation Z and Millennials’ models for health-information-seeking behaviors on social media. We summarized data on the most used sources of information, content of interest, and content sharing, as well as the sentiment toward the infodemic, through descriptive statistics and Chi-square test to verify the differences between groups. Among the survey respondents, 9475 (40.3%) were from high-income countries (HIC), 8000 (34.1%) from upper-middle-income countries (UMIC), and 6007 (25.6%) from lower-middle-income countries (LMIC). Social media were the most used sources of information to retrieve news on COVID-19 disease (about 79% in HIC, 87% in UMIC, and 90% in LIC) and the COVID-19 vaccine (about 78% in HIC and about 88% in UMIC and LIC). More than a half of the young respondents declared that they pay attention to scientific contents (about 51% in HIC, 59% in UMIC, and 55% in LMIC). Finally, most young participants reported feeling overwhelmed by the infodemic. However, this sentiment did not stop them from seeking information about COVID-19. Our findings highlight the importance of shaping public health interventions and campaigns on social media platforms and leveraging scientific contents. Public health authorities should work also on strategies to improve the digital literacy of the population as a driving force to empower them and achieve better health outcomes

Childhood Immunisation Coverage during the COVID-19 Epidemic in Italy

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected national healthcare systems worldwide, with around 282 million cumulative confirmed cases reported in over 220 countries and territories as of the end of 2021. The Italian National Health System was heavily affected, with detrimental impacts on preventive service delivery. Routine vaccination services were disrupted across the country during the first months of the pandemic, and both access to and demand for vaccines have decreased during the pandemic. In many cases, parents preferred to postpone scheduled appointments for routine paediatric vaccinations because of stay-at-home orders or fear of COVID-19 infection when accessing care. The objective of the current study was to assess the routine childhood vaccine coverage (VC) rates during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. We compared 2020 and 2019 VC by age group and vaccine type. The Italian Ministry of Health collected anonymised and aggregated immunisation national data through the local health authorities (LHAs). Results were considered statistically significant at a two-tailed p-value ≤ 0.05. VC rates for mandatory vaccinations decreased in 2020 compared to 2019 (range of VC rate decrease: −1% to −2.7%), while chicken pox increased (+2.2%) in 7-year-old children. Recommended vaccinations were moderately affected (range of VC rate decrease in 2020 vs. 2019: −1.4% to −8.5%), with the exception of anti-HPV in males, Men ACWY, and anti-rotavirus vaccination (VC increase 2020 vs. 2019: +1.8%, +4.7% and +9.4%, respectively). In the COVID-19 era, the implementation of coherent, transparent, and effective communication campaigns and educational programs on safe childhood vaccinations, together with the increase in the number of healthcare staff employed, is essential to support strategies to reinforce vaccination confidence and behaviour, thus avoiding health threats due to VPD during and beyond COVID-19 times