Disease surveillance using a hidden Markov model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Routine surveillance of disease notification data can enable the early detection of localised disease outbreaks. Although hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been recognised as an appropriate method to model disease surveillance data, they have been rarely applied in public health practice. We aimed to develop and evaluate a simple flexible HMM for disease surveillance which is suitable for use with sparse small area count data and requires little baseline data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Bayesian HMM was designed to monitor routinely collected notifiable disease data that are aggregated by residential postcode. Semi-synthetic data were used to evaluate the algorithm and compare outbreak detection performance with the established Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) algorithms and a negative binomial cusum.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Algorithm performance varied according to the desired false alarm rate for surveillance. At false alarm rates around 0.05, the cusum-based algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having similar sensitivity to the HMMs and a shorter average time to detection. At false alarm rates around 0.01, the HMM algorithms provided the best overall outbreak detection performance, having higher sensitivity than the cusum-based Methods and a generally shorter time to detection for larger outbreaks. Overall, the 14-day HMM had a significantly greater area under the receiver operator characteristic curve than the EARS C3 and 7-day negative binomial cusum algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings suggest that the HMM provides an effective method for the surveillance of sparse small area notifiable disease data at low false alarm rates. Further investigations are required to evaluation algorithm performance across other diseases and surveillance contexts.</p

Chumnguh Thleum: Understanding Liver Illness and Hepatitis B Among Cambodian Immigrants

Cambodian immigrants are over 25 times more likely to have evidence of chronic hepatitis B infection than the general US population. Carriers of HBV are over 100 times more likely to develop liver cancer than non-carriers. Liver cancer incidence is the second leading cancer for Cambodian men and the sixth for Cambodian women. Despite this, this underserved population has received very little attention from health disparities researchers. Culturally and linguistically appropriate interventions are necessary to increase hepatitis B knowledge, serologic testing, and vaccination among Cambodian Americans. Eight group interviews were held with Cambodian American men (48) and women (49). Focus group discussion revealed unanticipated information about sociocultural influences on participants’ understanding about hepatitis B transmission, disease course, and prevention and treatment informed by humoral theories underlying Khmer medicine, by biomedicine, and by migration experiences. Our findings reveal the value of qualitative exploration to providing cultural context to biomedical information—a formula for effective health promotion and practice

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: A global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

This is the final version of the article. Available from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this record.Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft Access™ at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.The members of the ACER project wish to thank the QUEST-DESIRE (UK and France) bilateral project, the INQUA International Focus Group ACER and the INTIMATE-COST action for funding a suite of workshops to compile the ACER pollen and charcoal database and the workshop on ACER chronology that allow setting the basis for harmonizing the chronologies. Josué M. Polanco-Martinez was funded by a Basque Government postdoctoral fellowship (POS_2015_1_0006) and Sandy P. Harrison by the ERC Advanced Grant GC2.0: unlocking the past for a clearer future

Dissection of the Complex Phenotype in Cuticular Mutants of Arabidopsis Reveals a Role of SERRATE as a Mediator

Mutations in LACERATA (LCR), FIDDLEHEAD (FDH), and BODYGUARD (BDG) cause a complex developmental syndrome that is consistent with an important role for these Arabidopsis genes in cuticle biogenesis. The genesis of their pleiotropic phenotypes is, however, poorly understood. We provide evidence that neither distorted depositions of cutin, nor deficiencies in the chemical composition of cuticular lipids, account for these features, instead suggesting that the mutants alleviate the functional disorder of the cuticle by reinforcing their defenses. To better understand how plants adapt to these mutations, we performed a genome-wide gene expression analysis. We found that apparent compensatory transcriptional responses in these mutants involve the induction of wax, cutin, cell wall, and defense genes. To gain greater insight into the mechanism by which cuticular mutations trigger this response in the plants, we performed an overlap meta-analysis, which is termed MASTA (MicroArray overlap Search Tool and Analysis), of differentially expressed genes. This suggested that different cell integrity pathways are recruited in cesA cellulose synthase and cuticular mutants. Using MASTA for an in silico suppressor/enhancer screen, we identified SERRATE (SE), which encodes a protein of RNA–processing multi-protein complexes, as a likely enhancer. In confirmation of this notion, the se lcr and se bdg double mutants eradicate severe leaf deformations as well as the organ fusions that are typical of lcr and bdg and other cuticular mutants. Also, lcr does not confer resistance to Botrytis cinerea in a se mutant background. We propose that there is a role for SERRATE-mediated RNA signaling in the cuticle integrity pathway

Dynamic Regulation of H3K27 Trimethylation during Arabidopsis Differentiation

During growth of multicellular organisms, identities of stem cells and differentiated cells need to be maintained. Cell fate is epigenetically controlled by the conserved Polycomb-group (Pc-G) proteins that repress their target genes by catalyzing histone H3 lysine 27 trimethylation (H3K27me3). Although H3K27me3 is associated with mitotically stable gene repression, a large fraction of H3K27me3 target genes are tissue-specifically activated during differentiation processes. However, in plants it is currently unclear whether H3K27me3 is already present in undifferentiated cells and dynamically regulated to permit tissue-specific gene repression or activation. We used whole-genome tiling arrays to identify the H3K27me3 target genes in undifferentiated cells of the shoot apical meristem and in differentiated leaf cells. Hundreds of genes gain or lose H3K27me3 upon differentiation, demonstrating dynamic regulation of an epigenetic modification in plants. H3K27me3 is correlated with gene repression, and its release preferentially results in tissue-specific gene activation, both during differentiation and in Pc-G mutants. We further reveal meristem- and leaf-specific targeting of individual gene families including known but also likely novel regulators of differentiation and stem cell regulation. Interestingly, H3K27me3 directly represses only specific transcription factor families, but indirectly activates others through H3K27me3-mediated silencing of microRNA genes. Furthermore, H3K27me3 targeting of genes involved in biosynthesis, transport, perception, and signal transduction of the phytohormone auxin demonstrates control of an entire signaling pathway. Based on these and previous analyses, we propose that H3K27me3 is one of the major determinants of tissue-specific expression patterns in plants, which restricts expression of its direct targets and promotes gene expression indirectly by repressing miRNA genes

Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Habitat Selection in Female-Calf Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) Pairs on the Hawaiian Breeding Grounds

The Au'au Channel between the islands of Maui and Lanai, Hawaii comprises critical breeding habitat for humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) of the Central North Pacific stock. However, like many regions where marine mega-fauna gather, these waters are also the focus of a flourishing local eco-tourism and whale watching industry. Our aim was to establish current trends in habitat preference in female-calf humpback whale pairs within this region, focusing specifically on the busy, eastern portions of the channel. We used an equally-spaced zigzag transect survey design, compiled our results in a GIS model to identify spatial trends and calculated Neu's Indices to quantify levels of habitat use. Our study revealed that while mysticete female-calf pairs on breeding grounds typically favor shallow, inshore waters, female-calf pairs in the Au'au Channel avoided shallow waters (<20 m) and regions within 2 km of the shoreline. Preferred regions for female-calf pairs comprised water depths between 40–60 m, regions of rugged bottom topography and regions that lay between 4 and 6 km from a small boat harbor (Lahaina Harbor) that fell within the study area. In contrast to other humpback whale breeding grounds, there was only minimal evidence of typical patterns of stratification or segregation according to group composition. A review of habitat use by maternal females across Hawaiian waters indicates that maternal habitat choice varies between localities within the Hawaiian Islands, suggesting that maternal females alter their use of habitat according to locally varying pressures. This ability to respond to varying environments may be the key that allows wildlife species to persist in regions where human activity and critical habitat overlap

The multi-peak adaptive landscape of crocodylomorph body size evolution

Background: Little is known about the long-term patterns of body size evolution in Crocodylomorpha, the > 200-million-year-old group that includes living crocodylians and their extinct relatives. Extant crocodylians are mostly large-bodied (3–7 m) predators. However, extinct crocodylomorphs exhibit a wider range of phenotypes, and many of the earliest taxa were much smaller ( Results: Crocodylomorphs reached an early peak in body size disparity during the Late Jurassic, and underwent an essentially continual decline since then. A multi-peak Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model outperforms all other evolutionary models fitted to our data (including both uniform and non-uniform), indicating that the macroevolutionary dynamics of crocodylomorph body size are better described within the concept of an adaptive landscape, with most body size variation emerging after shifts to new macroevolutionary regimes (analogous to adaptive zones). We did not find support for a consistent evolutionary trend towards larger sizes among lineages (i.e., Cope’s rule), or strong correlations of body size with climate. Instead, the intermediate to large body sizes of some crocodylomorphs are better explained by group-specific adaptations. In particular, the evolution of a more aquatic lifestyle (especially marine) correlates with increases in average body size, though not without exceptions. Conclusions: Shifts between macroevolutionary regimes provide a better explanation of crocodylomorph body size evolution on large phylogenetic and temporal scales, suggesting a central role for lineage-specific adaptations rather than climatic forcing. Shifts leading to larger body sizes occurred in most aquatic and semi-aquatic groups. This, combined with extinctions of groups occupying smaller body size regimes (particularly during the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic), gave rise to the upward-shifted body size distribution of extant crocodylomorphs compared to their smaller-bodied terrestrial ancestors.</p

Man and the Last Great Wilderness: Human Impact on the Deep Sea

The deep sea, the largest ecosystem on Earth and one of the least studied, harbours high biodiversity and provides a wealth of resources. Although humans have used the oceans for millennia, technological developments now allow exploitation of fisheries resources, hydrocarbons and minerals below 2000 m depth. The remoteness of the deep seafloor has promoted the disposal of residues and litter. Ocean acidification and climate change now bring a new dimension of global effects. Thus the challenges facing the deep sea are large and accelerating, providing a new imperative for the science community, industry and national and international organizations to work together to develop successful exploitation management and conservation of the deep-sea ecosystem. This paper provides scientific expert judgement and a semi-quantitative analysis of past, present and future impacts of human-related activities on global deep-sea habitats within three categories: disposal, exploitation and climate change. The analysis is the result of a Census of Marine Life – SYNDEEP workshop (September 2008). A detailed review of known impacts and their effects is provided. The analysis shows how, in recent decades, the most significant anthropogenic activities that affect the deep sea have evolved from mainly disposal (past) to exploitation (present). We predict that from now and into the future, increases in atmospheric CO2 and facets and consequences of climate change will have the most impact on deep-sea habitats and their fauna. Synergies between different anthropogenic pressures and associated effects are discussed, indicating that most synergies are related to increased atmospheric CO2 and climate change effects. We identify deep-sea ecosystems we believe are at higher risk from human impacts in the near future: benthic communities on sedimentary upper slopes, cold-water corals, canyon benthic communities and seamount pelagic and benthic communities. We finalise this review with a short discussion on protection and management methods