Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

In vitro susceptibility of recent Chlamydia trachomatis clinical isolates to the CtHtrA inhibitor JO146

© 2015 Institut Pasteur. The present study aimed to establish if a previously identified Chlamydia trachomatis HtrA (CtHtrA) inhibitor, JO146, is effective against currently circulating clinical isolates to validate if CtHtrA is a clinically relevant target for future therapeutic development. Inhibition of CtHtrA during the middle of the chlamydial replicative cycle until the completion of the cycle resulted in loss of infectious progeny for six unique clinical isolates representing different serovars. This supports the potential for CtHtrA to be a clinically relevant target for development of new therapeutics and suggests the importance of further investigation of JO146 as a lead compound

The effect of sepsis and its inflammatory response on mechanical clot characteristics: a prospective observational study

Purpose: Sepsis and its progression are known to have a major influence on the coagulation system. Current coagulation tests are of limited use when assessing coagulation in sepsis patients. This study aims to assess the potential for a new functional biomarker of clot microstructure, fractal dimension, to identify changes in the mechanical properties of clot microstructure across the sepsis spectrum (sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock). Methods: A total of 100 patients that presented acutely to a large teaching hospital were included in this prospective observational study (50 sepsis, 20 severe sepsis and 30 septic shock) against a matched control of 44 healthy volunteers. Fractal analysis was performed, as well as standard markers of coagulation, and six plasma markers of inflammation. Results: Fractal dimension was significantly higher in the sepsis and severe sepsis groups than the healthy control (1.78 ± 0.07 and 1.80 ± 0.05 respectively vs 1.74 ± 0.03) (p < 0.001), indicating a significant increase in mechanical clot strength and elasticity consistent with a hypercoagulable state. Conversely, fractal dimension was significantly lower in septic shock (1.66 ± 0.10, p < 0.001), indicating a significant reduction in mechanical clot strength and functionality consistent with a hypocoagulable state. This corresponded with a significant increase in the inflammatory response. Conclusions: This study confirms that clot microstructure is significantly altered through the various stages of sepsis. Of particular importance was the marked change in clot development between severe sepsis and septic shock, which has not been previously reported

Centrally concentrated molecular gas driving galactic-scale ionized gas outflows in star-forming galaxies

We perform a joint analysis of high spatial resolution molecular gas and star-formation rate (SFR) maps in main-sequence star-forming galaxies experiencing galactic-scale outflows of ionized gas. Our aim is to understand the mechanism that determines which galaxies are able to launch these intense winds. We observed CO(1→0) at 1-arcsec resolution with ALMA in 16 edge-on galaxies, which also have 2-arcsec spatial-resolution optical integral field observations from the SAMI Galaxy Survey. Half the galaxies in the sample were previously identified as harbouring intense and large-scale outflows of ionized gas (‘outflow types’) and the rest serve as control galaxies. The data set is complemented by integrated CO(1→0) observations from the IRAM 30-m telescope to probe the total molecular gas reservoirs. We find that the galaxies powering outflows do not possess significantly different global gas fractions or star-formation efficiencies when compared with a control sample. However, the ALMA maps reveal that the molecular gas in the outflow-type galaxies is distributed more centrally than in the control galaxies. For our outflow-type objects, molecular gas and star-formation are largely confined within their inner effective radius (reff), whereas in the control sample, the distribution is more diffuse, extending far beyond reff. We infer that outflows in normal star-forming galaxies may be caused by dynamical mechanisms that drive molecular gas into their central regions, which can result in locally enhanced gas surface density and star-formation

The SAMI Galaxy Survey: The role of disc fading and progenitor bias in kinematic transitions

We use comparisons between the Sydney-AAO Multi-object Integral Field Spectrograph (SAMI) Galaxy Survey and equilibrium galaxy models to infer the importance of disc fading in the transition of spirals into lenticular (S0) galaxies. The local S0 population has both higher photometric concentration and lower stellar spin than spiral galaxies of comparable mass and we test whether this separation can be accounted for by passive aging alone. We construct a suite of dynamically self-consistent galaxy models, with a bulge, disc, and halo using the galactics code. The dispersion-dominated bulge is given a uniformly old stellar population, while the disc is given a current star formation rate putting it on the main sequence, followed by sudden instantaneous quenching. We then generate mock observables (r-band images, stellar velocity, and dispersion maps) as a function of time since quenching for a range of bulge/total (B/T) mass ratios. The disc fading leads to a decline in measured spin as the bulge contribution becomes more dominant, and also leads to increased concentration. However, the quantitative changes observed after 5 Gyr of disc fading cannot account for all of the observed difference. We see similar results if we instead subdivide our SAMI Galaxy Survey sample by star formation (relative to the main sequence). We use EAGLE simulations to also take into account progenitor bias, using size evolution to infer quenching time. The EAGLE simulations suggest that the progenitors of current passive galaxies typically have slightly higher spin than present day star-forming disc galaxies of the same mass. As a result, progenitor bias moves the data further from the disc fading model scenario, implying that intrinsic dynamical evolution must be important in the transition from star-forming discs to passive discs

Entrepreneurial sons, patriarchy and the Colonels' experiment in Thessaly, rural Greece

Existing studies within the field of institutional entrepreneurship explore how entrepreneurs influence change in economic institutions. This paper turns the attention of scholarly inquiry on the antecedents of deinstitutionalization and more specifically, the influence of entrepreneurship in shaping social institutions such as patriarchy. The paper draws from the findings of ethnographic work in two Greek lowland village communities during the military Dictatorship (1967–1974). Paradoxically this era associated with the spread of mechanization, cheap credit, revaluation of labour and clear means-ends relations, signalled entrepreneurial sons’ individuated dissent and activism who were now able to question the Patriarch’s authority, recognize opportunities and act as unintentional agents of deinstitutionalization. A ‘different’ model of institutional change is presented here, where politics intersects with entrepreneurs, in changing social institutions. This model discusses the external drivers of institutional atrophy and how handling dissensus (and its varieties over historical time) is instrumental in enabling institutional entrepreneurship

Distinct Mechanisms for Induction and Tolerance Regulate the Immediate Early Genes Encoding Interleukin 1β and Tumor Necrosis Factor α

Interleukin-1β and Tumor Necrosis Factor α play related, but distinct, roles in immunity and disease. Our study revealed major mechanistic distinctions in the Toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling-dependent induction for the rapidly expressed genes (IL1B and TNF) coding for these two cytokines. Prior to induction, TNF exhibited pre-bound TATA Binding Protein (TBP) and paused RNA Polymerase II (Pol II), hallmarks of poised immediate-early (IE) genes. In contrast, unstimulated IL1B displayed very low levels of both TBP and paused Pol II, requiring the lineage-specific Spi-1/PU.1 (Spi1) transcription factor as an anchor for induction-dependent interaction with two TLR-activated transcription factors, C/EBPβ and NF-κB. Activation and DNA binding of these two pre-expressed factors resulted in de novo recruitment of TBP and Pol II to IL1B in concert with a permissive state for elongation mediated by the recruitment of elongation factor P-TEFb. This Spi1-dependent mechanism for IL1B transcription, which is unique for a rapidly-induced/poised IE gene, was more dependent upon P-TEFb than was the case for the TNF gene. Furthermore, the dependence on phosphoinositide 3-kinase for P-TEFb recruitment to IL1B paralleled a greater sensitivity to the metabolic state of the cell and a lower sensitivity to the phenomenon of endotoxin tolerance than was evident for TNF. Such differences in induction mechanisms argue against the prevailing paradigm that all IE genes possess paused Pol II and may further delineate the specific roles played by each of these rapidly expressed immune modulators. © 2013 Adamik et al

Childhood socioeconomic position and objectively measured physical capability levels in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Grip strength, walking speed, chair rising and standing balance time are objective measures of physical capability that characterise current health and predict survival in older populations. Socioeconomic position (SEP) in childhood may influence the peak level of physical capability achieved in early adulthood, thereby affecting levels in later adulthood. We have undertaken a systematic review with meta-analyses to test the hypothesis that adverse childhood SEP is associated with lower levels of objectively measured physical capability in adulthood.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Methods and Findings:&lt;/b&gt; Relevant studies published by May 2010 were identified through literature searches using EMBASE and MEDLINE. Unpublished results were obtained from study investigators. Results were provided by all study investigators in a standard format and pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. 19 studies were included in the review. Total sample sizes in meta-analyses ranged from N = 17,215 for chair rise time to N = 1,061,855 for grip strength. Although heterogeneity was detected, there was consistent evidence in age adjusted models that lower childhood SEP was associated with modest reductions in physical capability levels in adulthood: comparing the lowest with the highest childhood SEP there was a reduction in grip strength of 0.13 standard deviations (95% CI: 0.06, 0.21), a reduction in mean walking speed of 0.07 m/s (0.05, 0.10), an increase in mean chair rise time of 6% (4%, 8%) and an odds ratio of an inability to balance for 5s of 1.26 (1.02, 1.55). Adjustment for the potential mediating factors, adult SEP and body size attenuated associations greatly. However, despite this attenuation, for walking speed and chair rise time, there was still evidence of moderate associations.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/b&gt; Policies targeting socioeconomic inequalities in childhood may have additional benefits in promoting the maintenance of independence in later life.&lt;/p&gt

Task-Specific Effects of tDCS-Induced Cortical Excitability Changes on Cognitive and Motor Sequence Set Shifting Performance

In this study, we tested the effects of transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) on two set shifting tasks. Set shifting ability is defined as the capacity to switch between mental sets or actions and requires the activation of a distributed neural network. Thirty healthy subjects (fifteen per site) received anodal, cathodal and sham stimulation of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) or the primary motor cortex (M1). We measured set shifting in both cognitive and motor tasks. The results show that both anodal and cathodal single session tDCS can modulate cognitive and motor tasks. However, an interaction was found between task and type of stimulation as anodal tDCS of DLPFC and M1 was found to increase performance in the cognitive task, while cathodal tDCS of DLPFC and M1 had the opposite effect on the motor task. Additionally, tDCS effects seem to be most evident on the speed of changing sets, rather than on reducing the number of errors or increasing the efficacy of irrelevant set filtering

Phylogeny of Echinoderm Hemoglobins

Recent genomic information has revealed that neuroglobin and cytoglobin are the two principal lineages of vertebrate hemoglobins, with the latter encompassing the familiar myoglobin and α-globin/β-globin tetramer hemoglobin, and several minor groups. In contrast, very little is known about hemoglobins in echinoderms, a phylum of exclusively marine organisms closely related to vertebrates, beyond the presence of coelomic hemoglobins in sea cucumbers and brittle stars. We identified about 50 hemoglobins in sea urchin, starfish and sea cucumber genomes and transcriptomes, and used Bayesian inference to carry out a molecular phylogenetic analysis of their relationship to vertebrate sequences, specifically, to assess the hypothesis that the neuroglobin and cytoglobin lineages are also present in echinoderms.The genome of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus encodes several hemoglobins, including a unique chimeric 14-domain globin, 2 androglobin isoforms and a unique single androglobin domain protein. Other strongylocentrotid genomes appear to have similar repertoires of globin genes. We carried out molecular phylogenetic analyses of 52 hemoglobins identified in sea urchin, brittle star and sea cucumber genomes and transcriptomes, using different multiple sequence alignment methods coupled with Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches. The results demonstrate that there are two major globin lineages in echinoderms, which are related to the vertebrate neuroglobin and cytoglobin lineages. Furthermore, the brittle star and sea cucumber coelomic hemoglobins appear to have evolved independently from the cytoglobin lineage, similar to the evolution of erythroid oxygen binding globins in cyclostomes and vertebrates.The presence of echinoderm globins related to the vertebrate neuroglobin and cytoglobin lineages suggests that the split between neuroglobins and cytoglobins occurred in the deuterostome ancestor shared by echinoderms and vertebrates