Burden of Illness in UK Subjects with Reported Respiratory Infections Vaccinated or Unvaccinated against Influenza: A Retrospective Observational Study

<div><p>Objective</p><p>Detailed data are lacking on influenza burden in the United Kingdom (UK). The objective of this study was to estimate the disease burden associated with influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United Kingdom stratified by age, risk and influenza vaccination status.</p><p>Methods</p><p>This retrospective, cross-sectional, exploratory, observational study used linked data from the General Practice Research Database and the Hospital Episode Statistics databases to estimate resource use and cost associated with ILI in the UK.</p><p>Results</p><p>Data were included from 156,193 patients with ≥1 general practitioner visit with ILI. There were 21,518 high-risk patients, of whom 12,514 (58.2%) were vaccinated and 9,004 (41.8%) were not vaccinated, and 134,675 low-risk patients, of whom 17,482 (13.0%) were vaccinated and 117,193 (87.0%) were not vaccinated. High-risk vaccinated patients were older (p<0.001) and had more risk conditions (p<0.001). High-risk (odds ratio [OR] 2.16) or vaccinated (OR 1.19) patients had a higher probability of >1 general practitioner visit compared with low-risk and unvaccinated patients. Patients who were high-risk and vaccinated had a reduced risk of >1 general practitioner visit (OR 0.82; p<0.001). High-risk individuals who were also vaccinated had a lower probability of ILI-related hospitalisation than individuals who were high-risk or vaccinated alone (OR 0.59). In people aged ≥65 years, the mortality rate was lower in vaccinated than unvaccinated individuals (OR 0.75). The cost of ILI-related GP visits and hospital admissions in the UK over the study period in low-risk vaccinated patients was £27,391,142 and £141,932,471, respectively. In low-risk unvaccinated patients the corresponding values were £168,318,709 and £112,534,130, respectively.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Although vaccination rates in target groups have increased, many people are still not receiving influenza vaccination, and the burden of ILI in the United Kingdom remains substantial. Improving influenza vaccination uptake may have the potential to reduce this burden.</p></div

Spatial chemical distance based on atomic property fields

Similarity of compound chemical structures often leads to close pharmacological profiles, including binding to the same protein targets. The opposite, however, is not always true, as distinct chemical scaffolds can exhibit similar pharmacology as well. Therefore, relying on chemical similarity to known binders in search for novel chemicals targeting the same protein artificially narrows down the results and makes lead hopping impossible. In this study we attempt to design a compound similarity/distance measure that better captures structural aspects of their pharmacology and molecular interactions. The measure is based on our recently published method for compound spatial alignment with atomic property fields as a generalized 3D pharmacophoric potential. We optimized contributions of different atomic properties for better discrimination of compound pairs with the same pharmacology from those with different pharmacology using Partial Least Squares regression. Our proposed similarity measure was then tested for its ability to discriminate pharmacologically similar pairs from decoys on a large diverse dataset of 115 protein–ligand complexes. Compared to 2D Tanimoto and Shape Tanimoto approaches, our new approach led to improvement in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values in 66 and 58% of domains respectively. The improvement was particularly high for the previously problematic cases (weak performance of the 2D Tanimoto and Shape Tanimoto measures) with original AUC values below 0.8. In fact for these cases we obtained improvement in 86% of domains compare to 2D Tanimoto measure and 85% compare to Shape Tanimoto measure. The proposed spatial chemical distance measure can be used in virtual ligand screening

Resource use and direct medical costs of acute respiratory illness in the UK based on linked primary and secondary care records from 2001 to 2009

BackgroundPrevious studies have shown that influenza is associated with a substantial healthcare burden in the United Kingdom (UK), but more studies are needed to evaluate the resource use and direct medical costs of influenza in primary care and secondary care.MethodsA retrospective observational database study in the UK to describe the primary care and directly-associated secondary care resource use, and direct medical costs of acute respiratory illness (ARI), according to age, and risk status (NCT Number: 01521416). Patients with influenza, ARI or influenza-related respiratory infections during 9 consecutive pre-pandemic influenza peak seasons were identified by READ codes in the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) dataset. The study period was from 21st January 2001 to 31st March 2009.ResultsA total of 156,193 patients had ≥1 general practitioner (GP) episode of ARI, and a total of 82,204 patients received ≥1 GP prescription, at a mean of 2.5 (standard deviation [SD]: 3.0) prescriptions per patient. The total cost of GP consultations and prescriptions equated to £462,827 per year per 100,000 patients. The yearly cost of prescribed medication for ARI was £319,732, at an estimated cost of £11,596,350 per year extrapolated to the UK, with 40% attributable to antibiotics. The mean cost of hospital admissions equated to a yearly cost of £981,808 per 100,000 patients. The total mean direct medical cost of ARI over 9 influenza seasons was £21,343,445 (SD: £10,441,364), at £136.65 (SD: £66.85) per case.ConclusionsExtrapolating to the UK population, for pre-pandemic influenza seasons from 2001 to 2009, the direct medical cost of ARI equated to £86 million each year. More studies are needed to assess the costs of influenza disease to help guide public health decision-making for seasonal influenza in the UK

Prevalence of Borderline Personality Disorder in University Samples: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression.

OBJECTIVE: To determine pooled prevalence of clinically significant traits or features of Borderline Personality Disorder among college students, and explore the influence of methodological factors on reported prevalence figures, and temporal trends. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases (1994-2014: AMED; Biological Abstracts; Embase; MEDLINE; PsycARTICLES; CINAHL Plus; Current Contents Connect; EBM Reviews; Google Scholar; Ovid Medline; Proquest central; PsychINFO; PubMed; Scopus; Taylor & Francis; Web of Science (1998-2014), and hand searches. STUDY SELECTION: Forty-three college-based studies reporting estimates of clinically significant BPD symptoms were identified (5.7% of original search). DATA EXTRACTION: One author (RM) extracted clinically relevant BPD prevalence estimates, year of publication, demographic variables, and method from each publication or through correspondence with the authors. RESULTS: The prevalence of BPD in college samples ranged from 0.5% to 32.1%, with lifetime prevalence of 9.7% (95% CI, 7.7-12.0; p &lt; .005). Methodological factors contributing considerable between-study heterogeneity in univariate meta-analyses were participant anonymity, incentive type, research focus and participant type. Study and sample characteristics related to between study heterogeneity were sample size, and self-identifying as Asian or "other" race. The prevalence of BPD varied over time: 7.8% (95% CI 4.2-13.9) between 1994 and 2000; 6.5% (95% CI 4.0-10.5) during 2001 to 2007; and 11.6% (95% CI 8.8-15.1) from 2008 to 2014, yet was not a source of heterogeneity (p = .09). CONCLUSIONS: BPD prevalence estimates are influenced by the methodological or study sample factors measured. There is a need for consistency in measurement across studies to increase reliability in establishing the scope and characteristics of those with BPD engaged in tertiary study

Effects of the Higashi-Nihon Earthquake: Posttraumatic Stress, Psychological Changes, and Cortisol Levels of Survivors

On March 11, 2011, the Pacific side of Japan’s northeast was devastated by an earthquake and tsunami. For years, many researchers have been working on ways of examining the psychological effects of earthquakes on survivors in disaster areas who have experienced aftershocks, catastrophic fires, and other damage caused by the earthquake. The goal of this study is to examine scores on psychological measures and salivary cortisol level in these individuals both before and three months after the earthquake. The participants had been measured for these variables before the earthquake. After the earthquake, we carried out PTSD screening using CAPS for participants for another experiment, and then again conducted the aforementioned tests. We collected saliva samples from all survivors. Our results show that social relationship scores on the WHO-QOL26, negative mood scores of the WHO-SUBI, total GHQ score, POMS confusion scores, and CMI emotional status score after the earthquake showed scores indicating significantly decreased compared to before the earthquake. On the other hand, salivary cortisol levels after the earthquake was significantly increased compared to before the earthquake. Moreover, the result of a multiple regression analysis found that negative mood score on the WHO-SUBI and social relationship score on the WHO-QOL26 were significantly related to salivary cortisol levels. Our results thus demonstrate that several psychological stress induced by the earthquake was associated with an increase in salivary cortisol levels. These results show similar findings to previous study. We anticipate that this study will provide a better understanding of posttraumatic responses in the early stages of adaptation to the trauma and expand effective prevention strategies and countermeasures for PTSD

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Ape Conservation Physiology: Fecal Glucocorticoid Responses in Wild Pongo pygmaeus morio following Human Visitation

Nature-based tourism can generate important revenue to support conservation of biodiversity. However, constant exposure to tourists and subsequent chronic activation of stress responses can produce pathological effects, including impaired cognition, growth, reproduction, and immunity in the same animals we are interested in protecting. Utilizing fecal samples (N = 53) from 2 wild habituated orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus morio) (in addition to 26 fecal samples from 4 wild unhabituated orangutans) in the Lower Kinabatangan Wildlife Sanctuary of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, we predicted that i) fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations would be elevated on the day after tourist visitation (indicative of normal stress response to exposure to tourists on the previous day) compared to samples taken before or during tourist visitation in wild, habituated orangutans, and ii) that samples collected from habituated animals would have lower fecal glucocorticoid metabolites than unhabituated animals not used for tourism. Among the habituated animals used for tourism, fecal glucocorticoid metabolite levels were significantly elevated in samples collected the day after tourist visitation (indicative of elevated cortisol production on the previous day during tourist visitation). Fecal glucocorticoid metabolite levels were also lower in the habituated animals compared to their age-matched unhabituated counterparts. We conclude that the habituated animals used for this singular ecotourism project are not chronically stressed, unlike other species/populations with documented permanent alterations in stress responses. Animal temperament, species, the presence of coping/escape mechanisms, social confounders, and variation in amount of tourism may explain differences among previous experiments. Acute alterations in glucocorticoid measures in wildlife exposed to tourism must be interpreted conservatively. While permanently altered stress responses can be detrimental, preliminary results in these wild habituated orangutans suggest that low levels of predictable disturbance can likely result in low physiological impact on these animals

Production of dust by massive stars at high redshift

The large amounts of dust detected in sub-millimeter galaxies and quasars at high redshift pose a challenge to galaxy formation models and theories of cosmic dust formation. At z > 6 only stars of relatively high mass (> 3 Msun) are sufficiently short-lived to be potential stellar sources of dust. This review is devoted to identifying and quantifying the most important stellar channels of rapid dust formation. We ascertain the dust production efficiency of stars in the mass range 3-40 Msun using both observed and theoretical dust yields of evolved massive stars and supernovae (SNe) and provide analytical expressions for the dust production efficiencies in various scenarios. We also address the strong sensitivity of the total dust productivity to the initial mass function. From simple considerations, we find that, in the early Universe, high-mass (> 3 Msun) asymptotic giant branch stars can only be dominant dust producers if SNe generate <~ 3 x 10^-3 Msun of dust whereas SNe prevail if they are more efficient. We address the challenges in inferring dust masses and star-formation rates from observations of high-redshift galaxies. We conclude that significant SN dust production at high redshift is likely required to reproduce current dust mass estimates, possibly coupled with rapid dust grain growth in the interstellar medium.Comment: 72 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables; to be published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

The global abundance of tree palms

Aim: Palms are an iconic, diverse and often abundant component of tropical ecosystems that provide many ecosystem services. Being monocots, tree palms are evolutionarily, morphologically and physiologically distinct from other trees, and these differences have important consequences for ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and storage) and in terms of responses to climate change. We quantified global patterns of tree palm relative abundance to help improve understanding of tropical forests and reduce uncertainty about these ecosystems under climate change. Location: Tropical and subtropical moist forests. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Palms (Arecaceae). Methods: We assembled a pantropical dataset of 2,548 forest plots (covering 1,191 ha) and quantified tree palm (i.e., ≥10 cm diameter at breast height) abundance relative to co‐occurring non‐palm trees. We compared the relative abundance of tree palms across biogeographical realms and tested for associations with palaeoclimate stability, current climate, edaphic conditions and metrics of forest structure. Results: On average, the relative abundance of tree palms was more than five times larger between Neotropical locations and other biogeographical realms. Tree palms were absent in most locations outside the Neotropics but present in >80% of Neotropical locations. The relative abundance of tree palms was more strongly associated with local conditions (e.g., higher mean annual precipitation, lower soil fertility, shallower water table and lower plot mean wood density) than metrics of long‐term climate stability. Life‐form diversity also influenced the patterns; palm assemblages outside the Neotropics comprise many non‐tree (e.g., climbing) palms. Finally, we show that tree palms can influence estimates of above‐ground biomass, but the magnitude and direction of the effect require additional work. Conclusions: Tree palms are not only quintessentially tropical, but they are also overwhelmingly Neotropical. Future work to understand the contributions of tree palms to biomass estimates and carbon cycling will be particularly crucial in Neotropical forests