Representativity error for temperature and humidity using the Met Office high-resolution model

The observation-error covariance matrix used in data assimilation contains contributions from instrument errors, representativity errors and errors introduced by the approximated observation operator. Forward model errors arise when the observation operator does not correctly model the observations or when observations can resolve spatial scales that the model cannot. Previous work to estimate the observation-error covariance matrix for particular observing instruments has shown that it contains signifcant correlations. In particular, correlations for humidity data are more significant than those for temperature. However it is not known what proportion of these correlations can be attributed to the representativity errors. In this article we apply an existing method for calculating representativity error, previously applied to an idealised system, to NWP data. We calculate horizontal errors of representativity for temperature and humidity using data from the Met Office high-resolution UK variable resolution model. Our results show that errors of representativity are correlated and more significant for specific humidity than temperature. We also find that representativity error varies with height. This suggests that the assimilation scheme may be improved if these errors are explicitly included in a data assimilation scheme. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland

Network segregation in a model of misinformation and fact checking

Misinformation under the form of rumor, hoaxes, and conspiracy theories spreads on social media at alarming rates. One hypothesis is that, since social media are shaped by homophily, belief in misinformation may be more likely to thrive on those social circles that are segregated from the rest of the network. One possible antidote is fact checking which, in some cases, is known to stop rumors from spreading further. However, fact checking may also backfire and reinforce the belief in a hoax. Here we take into account the combination of network segregation, finite memory and attention, and fact-checking efforts. We consider a compartmental model of two interacting epidemic processes over a network that is segregated between gullible and skeptic users. Extensive simulation and mean-field analysis show that a more segregated network facilitates the spread of a hoax only at low forgetting rates, but has no effect when agents forget at faster rates. This finding may inform the development of mitigation techniques and overall inform on the risks of uncontrolled misinformation online

Study protocol to investigate the effect of a lifestyle intervention on body weight, psychological health status and risk factors associated with disease recurrence in women recovering from breast cancer treatment

Background Breast cancer survivors often encounter physiological and psychological problems related to their diagnosis and treatment that can influence long-term prognosis. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of a lifestyle intervention on body weight and psychological well-being in women recovering from breast cancer treatment, and to determine the relationship between changes in these variables and biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Methods/design Following ethical approval, a total of 100 patients will be randomly assigned to a lifestyle intervention (incorporating dietary energy restriction in conjunction with aerobic exercise training) or normal care control group. Patients randomised to the dietary and exercise intervention will be given individualised healthy eating dietary advice and written information and attend moderate intensity aerobic exercise sessions on three to five days per week for a period of 24 weeks. The aim of this strategy is to induce a steady weight loss of up to 0.5 Kg each week. In addition, the overall quality of the diet will be examined with a view to (i) reducing the dietary intake of fat to ~25% of the total calories, (ii) eating at least 5 portions of fruit and vegetables a day, (iii) increasing the intake of fibre and reducing refined carbohydrates, and (iv) taking moderate amounts of alcohol. Outcome measures will include body weight and body composition, psychological health status (stress and depression), cardiorespiratory fitness and quality of life. In addition, biomarkers associated with disease recurrence, including stress hormones, estrogen status, inflammatory markers and indices of innate and adaptive immune function will be monitored. Discussion This research will provide valuable information on the effectiveness of a practical, easily implemented lifestyle intervention for evoking positive effects on body weight and psychological well-being, two important factors that can influence long-term prognosis in breast cancer survivors. However, the added value of the study is that it will also evaluate the effects of the lifestyle intervention on a range of biomarkers associated with disease recurrence and survival. Considered together, the results should improve our understanding of the potential role that lifestyle-modifiable factors could play in saving or prolonging lives

Limits of effective nutrient management in dairy farming: analyses of experimental farm De Marke

Key words: nutrient management, dairy, prototyping, organic matter, soil fertility, nitrogen, phosphor. Intensive dairy production in the Netherlands is associated with high farm nutrient (N and P) inputs and high losses to the environment. The Dutch government and the dairy sector stimulate farmers to reduce losses through more efficient use of N and P inputs on their farms. This study explores for a dairy farm on dry sandy soil with average Dutch production intensity (12,000 kg milk per ha) the possibilities to meet strict environmental standards related to N and P by maximizing N and P use efficiency at the level of the farm and of the soil. Moreover, the study addresses the effects of efficient nutrient management on soil fertility. The research was conducted on experimental dairy farm De Marke, that is designed to meet strict environmental standards, implemented in practice in 1989 and modified continuously to meet its targets by prototyping, i.e. a cyclic procedure of designing, implementing, testing and evaluating measures. The thesis evaluates system development since 2000, while results from 1993-1999 were used to analyse long-term developments. After implementation of the farming system in 1989, the nitrate concentration in groundwater ‘stabilized’ at a level exceeding the environmental standard: 55 mg l-1. Causes of excessive nitrate leaching were examined by relating measured nitrate concentrations to management. Grazing was associated with higher leaching in spite of careful management with rotational grazing. Leaching under permanent grassland was similar to the overall leaching in crop rotations in which grass was alternated with maize and grains. Spatial and temporal patterns of soil N mineralization were explored to improve the synchronization of N application and crop N requirements. This study indicated that fertilizing a 1st year maize crop, following grassland, is not necessary. Measures implemented since 2000 to improve nutrient efficiency, included reduced grazing, adoption of anaerobic digestion, application of manure in the rows of maize, growing spring barley as the last crop in the arable phase, and, since 2004, the abolishment of fertilizer N. These measures contributed to an increase in the manure-N utilization and to an increase in the farm-N use efficiency up to 2008 to values exceeding the value of 33% that was realized in the period 1993-1999. Farm-N use efficiency was 35% in 2000-2003, 43% in 2004-2008 and 37% in 2009-2010. Farm-P use efficiency also increased as compared to the 87% that was realized in 1993-1999, i.e., it was 103% in 2000-2003 and 91% in 2004-2008. In 2009-2010, however, the farm-P use efficiency decreased to 69%, lower than the value realized in 1993-1999. The lower N and P use efficiency in 2009-2010 can be attributed to the lower N and P yields in grassland as a delayed effect of N limitation resulting from the abolishment of fertilizer N in grassland since 2004. Hence, despite the increase in manure-N utilization, mineral-N use is not yet completely redundant. P-equilibrium fertilization seems to be compatible with highly efficient crop production, in the short and in the long term. Soil organic matter (SOM) percentage in the upper topsoil decreased by 0.03 yr-1 (average across all land uses) at a constant rate over the last 20 years. The possibilities to stop this decline by higher organic matter inputs to the soil seem conflicting with efficient nutrient use. Hence, the long term dynamics of SOM may become critical for future farm performance. It was concluded that N and P use efficiency can be enhanced substantially by on-farm nutrient management, but that efficient nutrient management may conflict with maintenance of SOM.</p

Breastfeeding Is Associated with a Maternal Feeding Style Low in Control from Birth

Background: The influence of maternal child-feeding style upon child weight and eating style for children over the age of twelve months is well established. However there is little empirical evidence examining maternal child-feeding style during milk feeding despite evidence that mothers who breastfeed exert lower levels of control over later diet. The aim of this paper was to examine variation in maternal child-feeding style during the first six months postpartum and to explore associations with mode of milk feeding and infant weight. Methods: The Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ) is frequently used to measure maternal child-feeding style in preschool children. 390 mothers with an infant aged 0–6 months completed an adapted version of the CFQ to measure maternal child-feeding style during milk feeding. Participants reported breastfeeding duration, infant weight and perceived size. Results: Principle components analysis of questionnaire items produced six factors; encouraging feeding, feeding to a routine, limiting intake, concern for weight, monitoring and perceived responsibility. Breastfeeding was associated with lower levels of control compared to formula feeding. Infant birth weight was significantly inversely associated with concern for weight, monitoring and encouraging feeding. Discussion: Formula feeding is associated with greater maternal control of child-feeding from birth whilst a lower birth weight is linked to concerns for infant weight and pressure to eat. As early maternal child-feeding relationships may impac

Systematic review of mass media interventions designed to improve public recognition of stroke symptoms, emergency response and early treatment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mass media interventions have been implemented to improve emergency response to stroke given the emergence of effective acute treatments, but their impact is unclear.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Systematic review of mass media interventions aimed at improving emergency response to stroke, with narrative synthesis and review of intervention development.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ten studies were included (six targeted the public, four both public and professionals) published between 1992 and 2010. Only three were controlled before and after studies, and only one had reported how the intervention was developed. Campaigns aimed only at the public reported significant increase in awareness of symptoms/signs, but little impact on awareness of need for emergency response. Of the two controlled before and after studies, one reported no impact on those over 65 years, the age group at increased risk of stroke and most likely to witness a stroke, and the other found a significant increase in awareness of two or more warning signs of stroke in the same group post-intervention. One campaign targeted at public and professionals did not reduce time to presentation at hospital to within two hours, but increased and sustained thrombolysis rates. This suggests the campaign had a primary impact on professionals and improved the way that services for stroke were organised.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Campaigns aimed at the public may raise awareness of symptoms/signs of stroke, but have limited impact on behaviour. Campaigns aimed at both public and professionals may have more impact on professionals than the public. New campaigns should follow the principles of good design and be robustly evaluated.</p

A Preliminary Mixed-Method Investigation of Trust and Hidden Signals in Medical Consultations.

Background Several factors influence patients' trust, and trust influences the doctor-patient relationship. Recent literature has investigated the quality of the personal relationship and its dynamics by considering the role of communication and the elements that influence trust giving in the frame of general practitioner (GP) consultations. Objective We analysed certain aspects of the interaction between patients and GPs to understand trust formation and maintenance by focusing on communication channels. The impact of socio-demographic variables in trust relationships was also evaluated. Method A cross-sectional design using concurrent mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods was employed. One hundred adults were involved in a semi-structured interview composed of both qualitative and quantitative items for descriptive and exploratory purposes. The study was conducted in six community-based departments adjacent to primary care clinics in Trento, Italy. Results The findings revealed that patients trusted their GP to a high extent by relying on simple signals that were based on the quality of the one-to-one communication and on behavioural and relational patterns. Patients inferred the ability of their GP by adopting simple heuristics based mainly on the so-called social \u201chonest signals\u201d rather than on content-dependent features. Furthermore, socio-demographic variables affected trust: less literate and elderly people tended to trust more. Conclusions This study is unique in attempting to explore the role of simple signals in trust relationships within medical consultation: people shape trust and give meaning to their relationships through a powerful channel of communication that orbits not around words but around social relations. The findings have implications for both clinicians and researchers. For doctors, these results suggest a way of thinking about encounters with patients. For researchers, the findings underline the importance of analysing some new key factors around trust for future investigations in medical practice and education

Rtt107 Phosphorylation Promotes Localisation to DNA Double-Stranded Breaks (DSBs) and Recombinational Repair between Sister Chromatids

Efficient repair of DNA double-stranded breaks (DSB) requires a coordinated response at the site of lesion. Nucleolytic resection commits repair towards homologous recombination, which preferentially occurs between sister chromatids. DSB resection promotes recruitment of the Mec1 checkpoint kinase to the break. Rtt107 is a target of Mec1 and serves as a scaffold during repair. Rtt107 plays an important role during rescue of damaged replication forks, however whether Rtt107 contributes to the repair of DSBs is unknown. Here we show that Rtt107 is recruited to DSBs induced by the HO endonuclease. Rtt107 phosphorylation by Mec1 and its interaction with the Smc5–Smc6 complex are both required for Rtt107 loading to breaks, while Rtt107 regulators Slx4 and Rtt101 are not. We demonstrate that Rtt107 has an effect on the efficiency of sister chromatid recombination (SCR) and propose that its recruitment to DSBs, together with the Smc5–Smc6 complex is important for repair through the SCR pathway

Confusion and Conflict in Assessing the Physical Activity Status of Middle-Aged Men

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (including exercise) is prescribed for health and there are various recommendations that can be used to gauge physical activity status. The objective of the current study was to determine whether twelve commonly-used physical activity recommendations similarly classified middle-aged men as sufficiently active for general health. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We examined the commonality in the classification of physical activity status between twelve variations of physical activity recommendations for general health in ninety men aged 45-64 years. Physical activity was assessed using synchronised accelerometry and heart rate. Using different guidelines but the same raw data, the proportion of men defined as active ranged from to 11% to 98% for individual recommendations (median 73%, IQR 30% to 87%). There was very poor absolute agreement between the recommendations, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (A,1) of 0.24 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.34). Only 8% of men met all 12 recommendations and would therefore be unanimously classified as active and only one man failed to meet every recommendation and would therefore be unanimously classified as not sufficiently active. The wide variability in physical activity classification was explained by ostensibly subtle differences between the 12 recommendations for thresholds related to activity volume (time or energy), distribution (e.g., number of days of the week), moderate intensity cut-point (e.g., 3 vs. 4 metabolic equivalents or METs), and duration (including bout length). CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity status varies enormously depending on the physical activity recommendation that is applied and even ostensibly small differences have a major impact. Approximately nine out of every ten men in the present study could be variably described as either active or not sufficiently active. Either the effective dose or prescription that underlies each physical activity recommendation is different or each recommendation is seeking the same prescriptive outcome but with variable success