Estimation of a probability in inverse binomial sampling under normalized linear-linear and inverse-linear loss

Sequential estimation of the success probability $p$ in inverse binomial sampling is considered in this paper. For any estimator $\hat p$, its quality is measured by the risk associated with normalized loss functions of linear-linear or inverse-linear form. These functions are possibly asymmetric, with arbitrary slope parameters $a$ and $b$ for $\hat pp$ respectively. Interest in these functions is motivated by their significance and potential uses, which are briefly discussed. Estimators are given for which the risk has an asymptotic value as $p$ tends to $0$, and which guarantee that, for any $p$ in $(0,1)$, the risk is lower than its asymptotic value. This allows selecting the required number of successes, $r$, to meet a prescribed quality irrespective of the unknown $p$. In addition, the proposed estimators are shown to be approximately minimax when $a/b$ does not deviate too much from $1$, and asymptotically minimax as $r$ tends to infinity when $a=b$.Comment: 4 figure

Antitumor Activity of Pembrolizumab in Biomarker-Unselected Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Results From the Phase Ib KEYNOTE-012 Expansion Cohort.

Purpose Treatment with pembrolizumab, an anti-programmed death-1 antibody, at 10 mg/kg administered once every 2 weeks, displayed durable antitumor activity in programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) -positive recurrent and/or metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in the KEYNOTE-012 trial. Results from the expansion cohort, in which patients with HNSCC, irrespective of biomarker status, received a fixed dose of pembrolizumab at a less frequent dosing schedule, are reported. Patients and Methods Patients with R/M HNSCC, irrespective of PD-L1 or human papillomavirus status, received pembrolizumab 200 mg intravenously once every 3 weeks. Imaging was performed every 8 weeks. Primary end points were overall response rate (ORR) per central imaging vendor (Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors v1.1) and safety. Secondary end points included progression-free survival, overall survival, and association of response and PD-L1 expression. Patients who received one or more doses of pembrolizumab were included in analyses. Results Of 132 patients enrolled, median age was 60 years (range, 25 to 84 years), 83% were male, and 57% received two or more lines of therapy for R/M disease. ORR was 18% (95% CI, 12 to 26) by central imaging vendor and 20% (95% CI, 13 to 28) by investigator review. Median duration of response was not reached (range, ≥ 2 to ≥ 11 months). Six-month progression-free survival and overall survival rates were 23% and 59%, respectively. By using tumor and immune cells, a statistically significant increase in ORR was observed for PD-L1-positive versus -negative patients (22% v 4%; P = .021). Treatment-related adverse events of any grade and grade ≥ 3 events occurred in 62% and 9% of patients, respectively. Conclusion Fixed-dose pembrolizumab 200 mg administered once every 3 weeks was well tolerated and yielded a clinically meaningful ORR with evidence of durable responses, which supports further development of this regimen in patients with advanced HNSCC

An update on emerging drugs for asthma

Peer reviewedPreprin

Theory of current-driven motion of Skyrmions and spirals in helical magnets

We study theoretically the dynamics of the spin textures, i.e., Skyrmion crystal (SkX) and spiral structure (SS), in two-dimensional helical magnets under external current. By numerically solving the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation, it is found that (i) the critical current density of the motion is much lower for SkX compared with SS in agreement with the recent experiment, (ii) there is no intrinsic pinning effect for SkX and the deformation of the internal structure of Skyrmion reduces the pinning effect dramatically, (iii) the Bragg intensity of SkX shows strong time-dependence as can be observed by neutron scattering experiment.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

A Relativistic Type Ibc Supernova Without a Detected Gamma-ray Burst

Long duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) mark the explosive death of some massive stars and are a rare sub-class of Type Ibc supernovae (SNe Ibc). They are distinguished by the production of an energetic and collimated relativistic outflow powered by a central engine (an accreting black hole or neutron star). Observationally, this outflow is manifested in the pulse of gamma-rays and a long-lived radio afterglow. To date, central engine-driven SNe have been discovered exclusively through their gamma-ray emission, yet it is expected that a larger population goes undetected due to limited satellite sensitivity or beaming of the collimated emission away from our line-of-sight. In this framework, the recovery of undetected GRBs may be possible through radio searches for SNe Ibc with relativistic outflows. Here we report the discovery of luminous radio emission from the seemingly ordinary Type Ibc SN 2009bb, which requires a substantial relativistic outflow powered by a central engine. The lack of a coincident GRB makes SN 2009bb the first engine-driven SN discovered without a detected gamma-ray signal. A comparison with our extensive radio survey of SNe Ibc reveals that the fraction harboring central engines is low, ~1 percent, measured independently from, but consistent with, the inferred rate of nearby GRBs. Our study demonstrates that upcoming optical and radio surveys will soon rival gamma-ray satellites in pinpointing the nearest engine-driven SNe. A similar result for a different supernova is reported independently.Comment: To appear in Nature on Jan 28 2010. Embargoed for discussion in the press until 13:00 US Eastern Time on Jan 27 (Accepted version, 27 pages, Manuscript and Suppl. Info.

Ancient teeth, phenetic affinities, and African hominins: Another look at where Homo naledi fits in.

A new species of Homo, Homo naledi, was described in 2015 based on the hominin skeletal remains from the Dinaledi Chamber of the Rising Star cave system, South Africa. Subsequent craniodental comparative analyses, both phenetic and cladistic, served to support its taxonomic distinctiveness. Here we provide a new quantitative analysis, where up to 78 nonmetric crown and root traits of the permanent dentition were compared among samples of H. naledi (including remains from the recently discovered Lesedi Chamber) and eight other species from Africa: Australopithecus afarensis, Australopithecus africanus, Paranthropus boisei, Paranthropus robustus, Homo habilis, Homo erectus, Middle Pleistocene Homo sp., and Pleistocene and Holocene Homo sapiens. By using the mean measure of divergence distance statistic, phenetic affinities were calculated among samples to evaluate interspecific relatedness. The objective was to compare the results with those previously obtained, to assess further the taxonomic validity of the Rising Star hominin species. In accordance with earlier findings, H. naledi appears most similar dentally to the other African Homo samples. However, the former species is characterized by its retention and full expression of features relating to the main cusps, as well as the root numbers, with a near absence of accessory traits-including many that, based on various cladistic studies, are plesiomorphic in both extinct and extant African hominins. As such, the present findings provide additional support for the taxonomic validity of H. naledi as a distinct species of Homo

The Dold-Kan Correspondence and Coalgebra Structures

By using the Dold-Kan correspondence we construct a Quillen adjunction between the model categories of non-cocommutative coassociative simplicial and differential graded coalgebras over a field. We restrict to categories of connected coalgebras and prove a Quillen equivalence between them.Comment: 24 pages. Accepted by the Journal of Homotopy and Related Structures. Online 28 November 201

Hypernovae and Other Black-Hole-Forming Supernovae

During the last few years, a number of exceptional core-collapse supernovae (SNe) have been discovered. Their kinetic energy of the explosions are larger by more than an order of magnitude than the typical values for this type of SNe, so that these SNe have been called `Hypernovae'. We first describe how the basic properties of hypernovae can be derived from observations and modeling. These hypernovae seem to come from rather massive stars, thus forming black holes. On the other hand, there are some examples of massive SNe with only a small kinetic energy. We suggest that stars with non-rotating black holes are likely to collapse "quietly" ejecting a small amount of heavy elements (Faint supernovae). In contrast, stars with rotating black holes are likely to give rise to very energetic supernovae (Hypernovae). We present distinct nucleosynthesis features of these two types of "black-hole-forming" supernovae. Hypernova nucleosynthesis is characterized by larger abundance ratios (Zn,Co,V,Ti)/Fe and smaller (Mn,Cr)/Fe. Nucleosynthesis in Faint supernovae is characterized by a large amount of fall-back. We show that the abundance pattern of the most Fe deficient star, HE0107-5240, and other extremely metal-poor carbon-rich stars are in good accord with those of black-hole-forming supernovae, but not pair-instability supernovae. This suggests that black-hole-forming supernovae made important contributions to the early Galactic (and cosmic) chemical evolution.Comment: 49 pages, to be published in "Stellar Collapse" (Astrophysics and Space Science; Kluwer) ed. C. L. Fryer (2003

PubMed related articles: a probabilistic topic-based model for content similarity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We present a probabilistic topic-based model for content similarity called <it>pmra </it>that underlies the related article search feature in PubMed. Whether or not a document is about a particular topic is computed from term frequencies, modeled as Poisson distributions. Unlike previous probabilistic retrieval models, we do not attempt to estimate relevance–but rather our focus is "relatedness", the probability that a user would want to examine a particular document given known interest in another. We also describe a novel technique for estimating parameters that does not require human relevance judgments; instead, the process is based on the existence of MeSH ^®in MEDLINE ^®.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The <it>pmra </it>retrieval model was compared against <it>bm25</it>, a competitive probabilistic model that shares theoretical similarities. Experiments using the test collection from the TREC 2005 genomics track shows a small but statistically significant improvement of <it>pmra </it>over <it>bm25 </it>in terms of precision.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our experiments suggest that the <it>pmra </it>model provides an effective ranking algorithm for related article search.</p

Collateral Quality and Loan Default Risk: The Case of Vietnam

In the transition economy of Vietnam, financial market is dominated by banking sector but commercial banks heavily rely on collateral-based lending. While the relationship between collateral and implied credit risk is still in debate, this paper provides additional empirical evidence regarding the heterogeneous effects and transmission channels of collateral characteristics on loan delinquency. Applying instrumental variable probit analysis on a unique dataset of 2295 internal loan accounts in Vietnam, we find the significantly negative impact of collateral quality on the probability of default of consumer loans, supporting the dominance of borrower selection and risk-shifting over lender selection effects. The finding implies that high-quality collateral not only signals more credible borrower but also fosters good behavior in using loan, enabling bank to mitigate adverse selection and moral hazard problems