Widening Access to Bayesian Problem Solving

Bayesian reasoning and decision making is widely considered normative because it minimizes prediction error in a coherent way. However, it is often difficult to apply Bayesian principles to complex real world problems, which typically have many unknowns and interconnected variables. Bayesian network modeling techniques make it possible to model such problems and obtain precise predictions about the causal impact that changing the value of one variable may have on the values of other variables connected to it. But Bayesian modeling is itself complex, and has until now remained largely inaccessible to lay people. In a large scale lab experiment, we provide proof of principle that a Bayesian network modeling tool, adapted to provide basic training and guidance on the modeling process to beginners without requiring knowledge of the mathematical machinery working behind the scenes, significantly helps lay people find normative Bayesian solutions to complex problems, compared to generic training on probabilistic reasoning. We discuss the implications of this finding for the use of Bayesian network software tools in applied contexts such as security, medical, forensic, economic or environmental decision making

Design and Characterization of a Flexible Wideband Antenna Using Polydimethylsiloxane Composite Substrate

The design and characterization of a simple, flexible wideband antenna using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) composite are presented. Conductive fibers are used to construct the metallic parts on a PDMS composite. To characterize the performance, two identical antennas are designed, one using the PDMS composite while the other on conventional dielectric materials. It was observed that both antennas behave well in terms of the matched bandwidth; however, the radiation towards the broadside direction is reduced when using the PDMS composite as substrate, particularly at higher frequencies. The antenna exhibits a matched bandwidth of 59.9%, ranging from 3.43 to 11.1 GHz. Moreover, the bending analysis carried out for different scenarios show that the wideband behavior of the antenna is well preserved and the variation reaches a maximum of 1% variation

Influence of real-world characteristics on outcomes for patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcal skin and soft tissue infections:a multi-country medical chart review in Europe

BACKGROUND: Patient-related (demographic/disease) and treatment-related (drug/clinician/hospital) characteristics were evaluated as potential predictors of healthcare resource use and opportunities for early switch (ES) from intravenous (IV)-to-oral methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)-active antibiotic therapy and early hospital discharge (ED). METHODS: This retrospective observational medical chart study analyzed patients (across 12 European countries) with microbiologically confirmed MRSA complicated skin and soft tissue infections (cSSTI), ≥3 days of IV anti-MRSA antibiotics during hospitalization (July 1, 2010-June 30, 2011), and discharged alive by July 31, 2011. Logistic/linear regression models evaluated characteristics potentially associated with actual resource use (length of IV therapy, length of hospital stay [LOS], IV-to-oral antibiotic switch), and ES and ED (using literature-based and expert-verified criteria) outcomes. RESULTS: 1542 patients (mean ± SD age 60.8 ± 16.5 years; 61.5% males) were assessed with 81.0% hospitalized for MRSA cSSTI as the primary reason. Several patient demographic, infection, complication, treatment, and hospital characteristics were predictive of length of IV therapy, LOS, IV-to-oral antibiotic switch, or ES and ED opportunities. Outcomes and ES and ED opportunities varied across countries. Length of IV therapy and LOS (r = 0.66, p < 0.0001) and eligibilities for ES and ED (r = 0.44, p < 0.0001) showed relatively strong correlations. IV-to-oral antibiotic switch patients had significantly shorter length of IV therapy (−5.19 days, p < 0.001) and non-significantly shorter LOS (−1.86 days, p > 0.05). Certain patient and treatment characteristics were associated with increased odds of ES (healthcare-associated/ hospital-acquired infection) and ED (patient living arrangements, healthcare-associated/ hospital-acquired infection, initiating MRSA-active treatment 1–2 days post cSSTI index date, existing ED protocol), while other factors decreased the odds of ES (no documented MRSA culture, ≥4 days from admission to cSSTI index date, IV-to-oral switch, IV line infection) and ED (dementia, no documented MRSA culture, initiating MRSA-active treatment ≥3 days post cSSTI index date, existing ES protocol). CONCLUSIONS: Practice patterns and opportunity for further ES and ED were affected by several infection, treatment, hospital, and geographical characteristics, which should be considered in identifying ES and ED opportunities and designing interventions for MRSA cSSTI to reduce IV days and LOS while maintaining the quality of care. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-476) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Cataract surgery by appointment – a pilot study

BACKGROUND: "Cataract Surgery by Appointment" is a new method of delivery of cataract surgery that reduces the time a patient spends in hospital by their direct arrival at the operating theatre, having self-prepared for surgery, thus avoiding admission to the ward or time spent in the Day Case Unit. The patient can stay as little as 20 minutes from their arrival to going home. We describe the process in detail, and seek to evaluate the visual outcome, safety and patient satisfaction of same. METHODS: Visual outcome and safety data were obtained from patients' medical records, prospectively. Patients were also surveyed by a questionnaire to determine their satisfaction with the service and viability as a prospect for providing a more efficient cataract surgery service. RESULTS: In 2002, fifty-one eyes of 39 consecutive patients underwent "Cataract Surgery by Appointment". There were 16 male and 23 female. The pre-operative best-corrected visual acuity was 6/9 or better in 17 (33%) eyes. The post-operative best-corrected visual acuity was 6/9 or better in 44 (86%) eyes. There were no per-operative complications. Post-operative complications occurred in 3 (6%) eyes. The average number of days from surgery to final discharge was 14.5 days. Twenty-eight (72%) completed questionnaires were returned. The results show that the majority of patients were satisfied with their overall experience of this mode of delivery for cataract surgery. CONCLUSION: "Cataract Surgery by Appointment" performed under local anaesthesia by a skilled ophthalmic surgeon appears to be safe and effective for highly selected cases. This method of delivery gave a high level of patient satisfaction, and is the ultimate form of day case cataract surgery. The method may gain widespread use should per-operative intracameral pupil dilatation prove to be effective and acceptable. Attention should be paid to risk-stratification, so complex cases are allocated more time on the operating list

Nested Sets and Natural Frequencies

Is the nested sets approach to improving accuracy on Bayesian word problems simply a way of prompting a natural frequencies solution, as its critics claim? Conversely, is it in fact, as its advocates claim, a more fundamental explanation of why the natural frequency approach itself works? Following recent calls, we use a process-focused approach to contribute to answering these long-debated questions. We also argue for a third, pragmatic way of looking at these two approaches and argue that they reveal different truths about human Bayesian reasoning. Using a think aloud methodology we show that while the nested sets approach does appear in part to work via the mechanisms theorised by advocates (by encouraging a nested sets representation), it also encourages conversion of the problem to frequencies, as its critics claim. The ramifications of these findings, as well as ways to further enhance the nested sets approach and train individuals to deal with standard probability problems are discussed

Revision and Update of the Consensus Definitions of Invasive Fungal Disease From the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer and the Mycoses Study Group Education and Research Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal diseases (IFDs) remain important causes of morbidity and mortality. The consensus definitions of the Infectious Diseases Group of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer and the Mycoses Study Group have been of immense value to researchers who conduct clinical trials of antifungals, assess diagnostic tests, and undertake epidemiologic studies. However, their utility has not extended beyond patients with cancer or recipients of stem cell or solid organ transplants. With newer diagnostic techniques available, it was clear that an update of these definitions was essential. METHODS: To achieve this, 10 working groups looked closely at imaging, laboratory diagnosis, and special populations at risk of IFD. A final version of the manuscript was agreed upon after the groups' findings were presented at a scientific symposium and after a 3-month period for public comment. There were several rounds of discussion before a final version of the manuscript was approved. RESULTS: There is no change in the classifications of "proven," "probable," and "possible" IFD, although the definition of "probable" has been expanded and the scope of the category "possible" has been diminished. The category of proven IFD can apply to any patient, regardless of whether the patient is immunocompromised. The probable and possible categories are proposed for immunocompromised patients only, except for endemic mycoses. CONCLUSIONS: These updated definitions of IFDs should prove applicable in clinical, diagnostic, and epidemiologic research of a broader range of patients at high-risk

Cluster-randomised non-inferiority trial comparing DVD-assisted and traditional genetic counselling in systematic population testing for BRCA1/2 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Newer approaches to genetic counselling are required for population-based testing. We compare traditional face-to-face genetic counselling with a DVD-assisted approach for population-based BRCA1/2 testing. METHODS: A cluster-randomised non-inferiority trial in the London Ashkenazi Jewish population. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Ashkenazi Jewish men/women >18 years; exclusion criteria: (a) known BRCA1/2 mutation, (b) previous BRCA1/2 testing and (c) first-degree relative of BRCA1/2 carrier. Ashkenazi Jewish men/women underwent pre-test genetic counselling prior to BRCA1/2 testing in the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial (ISRCTN73338115). Genetic counselling clinics (clusters) were randomised to traditional counselling (TC) and DVD-based counselling (DVD-C) approaches. DVD-C involved a DVD presentation followed by shorter face-to-face genetic counselling. Outcome measures included genetic testing uptake, cancer risk perception, increase in knowledge, counselling time and satisfaction (Genetic Counselling Satisfaction Scale). Random-effects models adjusted for covariates compared outcomes between TC and DVD-C groups. One-sided 97.5% CI was used to determine non-inferiority. SECONDARY OUTCOMES: relevance, satisfaction, adequacy, emotional impact and improved understanding with the DVD; cost-minimisation analysis for TC and DVD-C approaches. RESULTS: 936 individuals (clusters=256, mean-size=3.6) were randomised to TC (n=527, clusters=134) and DVD-C (n=409, clusters=122) approaches. Groups were similar at baseline, mean age=53.9 (SD=15) years, women=66.8%, men=33.2%. DVD-C was non-inferior to TC for increase in knowledge (d=-0.07; lower 97.5% CI=-0.41), counselling satisfaction (d=-0.38, 97.5% CI=1.2) and risk perception (d=0.08; upper 97.5% CI=3.1). Group differences and CIs did not cross non-inferiority margins. DVD-C was equivalent to TC for uptake of genetic testing (d=-3%; lower/upper 97.5% CI -7.9%/1.7%) and superior for counselling time (20.4 (CI 18.7 to 22.2) min reduction (p<0.005)). 98% people found the DVD length and information satisfactory. 85-89% felt it improved their understanding of risks/benefits/implications/purpose of genetic testing. 95% would recommend it to others. The cost of genetic counselling for DVD-C=£7787 and TC=£17 307. DVD-C resulted in cost savings=£9520 (£14/volunteer). CONCLUSIONS: DVD-C is an effective, acceptable, non-inferior, time-saving and cost-efficient alternative to TC. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN 73338115

The role of sexually transmitted infections in male circumcision effectiveness against HIV – insights from clinical trial simulation

BACKGROUND: A landmark randomised trial of male circumcision (MC) in Orange Farm, South Africa recently showed a large and significant reduction in risk of HIV infection, reporting MC effectiveness of 61% (95% CI: 34%–77%). Additionally, two further randomised trials of MC in Kisumu, Kenya and Rakai, Uganda were recently stopped early to report 53% and 48% effectiveness, respectively. Since MC may protect against both HIV and certain sexually transmitted infections (STI), which are themselves cofactors of HIV infection, an important question is the extent to which this estimated effectiveness against HIV is mediated by the protective effect of circumcision against STI. The answer lies in the trial data if the appropriate statistical analyses can be identified to estimate the separate efficacies against HIV and STI, which combine to determine overall effectiveness. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Focusing on the MC trial in Kisumu, we used a stochastic prevention trial simulator (1) to determine whether statistical analyses can validly estimate efficacy, (2) to determine whether MC efficacy against STI alone can produce large effectiveness against HIV and (3) to estimate the fraction of all HIV infections prevented that are attributable to efficacy against STI when both efficacies combine. RESULTS: Valid estimation of separate efficacies against HIV and STI as well as MC effectiveness is feasible with available STI and HIV trial data, under Kisumu trial conditions. Under our parameter assumptions, high overall effectiveness of MC against HIV was observed only with a high MC efficacy against HIV and was not possible on the basis of MC efficacy against STI alone. The fraction of all HIV infections prevented which were attributable to MC efficacy against STI was small, except when efficacy of MC specifically against HIV was very low. In the three MC trials which reported between 48% and 61% effectiveness (combining STI and HIV efficacies), the fraction of HIV infections prevented in circumcised males which were attributable to STI was unlikely to be more than 10% to 20%. CONCLUSION: Estimation of efficacy, attributable fraction and effectiveness leads to improved understanding of trial results, gives trial results greater external validity and is essential to determine the broader public health impact of circumcision to men and women

Glucocorticoid Effects on the Programming of AT1b Angiotensin Receptor Gene Methylation and Expression in the Rat

Adverse events in pregnancy may ‘programme’ offspring for the later development of cardiovascular disease and hypertension. Previously, using a rodent model of programmed hypertension we have demonstrated the role of the renin-angiotensin system in this process. More recently we showed that a maternal low protein diet resulted in undermethylation of the At1b angiotensin receptor promoter and the early overexpression of this gene in the adrenal of offspring. Here, we investigate the hypothesis that maternal glucocorticoid modulates this effect on fetal DNA methylation and gene expression. We investigated whether treatment of rat dams with the 11β-hydroxylase inhibitor metyrapone, could prevent the epigenetic and gene expression changes we observed. Offspring of mothers subjected to a low protein diet in pregnancy showed reduced adrenal Agtr1b methylation and increased adrenal gene expression as we observed previously. Treatment of mothers with metyrapone for the first 14 days of pregnancy reversed these changes and prevented the appearance of hypertension in the offspring at 4 weeks of age. As a control for non-specific effects of programmed hypertension we studied offspring of mothers treated with dexamethasone from day 15 of pregnancy and showed that, whilst they had raised blood pressure, they failed to show any evidence of Agtr1b methylation or increase in gene expression. We conclude that maternal glucocorticoid in early pregnancy may induce changes in methylation and expression of the Agtr1b gene as these are clearly reversed by an 11 beta-hydroxylase inhibitor. However in later pregnancy a converse effect with dexamethasone could not be demonstrated and this may reflect either an alternative mechanism of this glucocorticoid or a stage-specific influence