Confound-leakage: confound removal in machine learning leads to leakage

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) approaches are a crucial component of modern data analysis in many fields, including epidemiology and medicine. Nonlinear ML methods often achieve accurate predictions, for instance, in personalized medicine, as they are capable of modeling complex relationships between features and the target. Problematically, ML models and their predictions can be biased by confounding information present in the features. To remove this spurious signal, researchers often employ featurewise linear confound regression (CR). While this is considered a standard approach for dealing with confounding, possible pitfalls of using CR in ML pipelines are not fully understood. RESULTS: We provide new evidence that, contrary to general expectations, linear confound regression can increase the risk of confounding when combined with nonlinear ML approaches. Using a simple framework that uses the target as a confound, we show that information leaked via CR can increase null or moderate effects to near-perfect prediction. By shuffling the features, we provide evidence that this increase is indeed due to confound-leakage and not due to revealing of information. We then demonstrate the danger of confound-leakage in a real-world clinical application where the accuracy of predicting attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder is overestimated using speech-derived features when using depression as a confound. CONCLUSIONS: Mishandling or even amplifying confounding effects when building ML models due to confound-leakage, as shown, can lead to untrustworthy, biased, and unfair predictions. Our expose of the confound-leakage pitfall and provided guidelines for dealing with it can help create more robust and trustworthy ML models

Characterization and Generation of Male Courtship Song in Cotesia congregata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)

Background Male parasitic wasps attract females with a courtship song produced by rapid wing fanning. Songs have been described for several parasitic wasp species; however, beyond association with wing fanning, the mechanism of sound generation has not been examined. We characterized the male courtship song of Cotesia congregata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) and investigated the biomechanics of sound production. Methods and Principal Findings Courtship songs were recorded using high-speed videography (2,000 fps) and audio recordings. The song consists of a long duration amplitude-modulated “buzz” followed by a series of pulsatile higher amplitude “boings,” each decaying into a terminal buzz followed by a short inter-boing pause while wings are stationary. Boings have higher amplitude and lower frequency than buzz components. The lower frequency of the boing sound is due to greater wing displacement. The power spectrum is a harmonic series dominated by wing repetition rate ~220 Hz, but the sound waveform indicates a higher frequency resonance ~5 kHz. Sound is not generated by the wings contacting each other, the substrate, or the abdomen. The abdomen is elevated during the first several wing cycles of the boing, but its position is unrelated to sound amplitude. Unlike most sounds generated by volume velocity, the boing is generated at the termination of the wing down stroke when displacement is maximal and wing velocity is zero. Calculation indicates a low Reynolds number of ~1000. Conclusions and Significance Acoustic pressure is proportional to velocity for typical sound sources. Our finding that the boing sound was generated at maximal wing displacement coincident with cessation of wing motion indicates that it is caused by acceleration of the wing tips, consistent with a dipole source. The low Reynolds number requires a high wing flap rate for flight and predisposes wings of small insects for sound production

Differential overexpression of SERPINA3 in human prion diseases

Prion diseases are fatal neurodegenerative disorders with sporadic, genetic or acquired etiologies. The molecular alterations leading to the onset and the spreading of these diseases are still unknown. In a previous work we identified a five-gene signature able to distinguish intracranially BSE-infected macaques from healthy ones, with SERPINA3 showing the most prominent dysregulation. We analyzed 128 suitable frontal cortex samples, from prion-affected patients (variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) n = 20, iatrogenic CJD (iCJD) n = 11, sporadic CJD (sCJD) n = 23, familial CJD (gCJD) n = 17, fatal familial insomnia (FFI) n = 9, Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker syndrome (GSS)) n = 4), patients with Alzheimer disease (AD, n = 14) and age-matched controls (n = 30). Real Time-quantitative PCR was performed for SERPINA3 transcript, and ACTB, RPL19, GAPDH and B2M were used as reference genes. We report SERPINA3 to be strongly up-regulated in the brain of all human prion diseases, with only a mild up-regulation in AD. We show that this striking up-regulation, both at the mRNA and at the protein level, is present in all types of human prion diseases analyzed, although to a different extent for each specific disorder. Our data suggest that SERPINA3 may be involved in the pathogenesis and the progression of prion diseases, representing a valid tool for distinguishing different forms of these disorders in humans

Fiber Mediated Receptor Masking in Non-Infected Bystander Cells Restricts Adenovirus Cell Killing Effect but Promotes Adenovirus Host Co-Existence

The basic concept of conditionally replicating adenoviruses (CRAD) as oncolytic agents is that progenies generated from each round of infection will disperse, infect and kill new cancer cells. However, CRAD has only inhibited, but not eradicated tumor growth in xenograft tumor therapy, and CRAD therapy has had only marginal clinical benefit to cancer patients. Here, we found that CRAD propagation and cancer cell survival co-existed for long periods of time when infection was initiated at low multiplicity of infection (MOI), and cancer cell killing was inefficient and slow compared to the assumed cell killing effect upon infection at high MOI. Excessive production of fiber molecules from initial CRAD infection of only 1 to 2% cancer cells and their release prior to the viral particle itself caused a tropism-specific receptor masking in both infected and non-infected bystander cells. Consequently, the non-infected bystander cells were inefficiently bound and infected by CRAD progenies. Further, fiber overproduction with concomitant restriction of adenovirus spread was observed in xenograft cancer therapy models. Besides the CAR-binding Ad4, Ad5, and Ad37, infection with CD46-binding Ad35 and Ad11 also caused receptor masking. Fiber overproduction and its resulting receptor masking thus play a key role in limiting CRAD functionality, but potentially promote adenovirus and host cell co-existence. These findings also give important clues for understanding mechanisms underlying the natural infection course of various adenoviruses

Lateral Transfer of a Lectin-Like Antifreeze Protein Gene in Fishes

Fishes living in icy seawater are usually protected from freezing by endogenous antifreeze proteins (AFPs) that bind to ice crystals and stop them from growing. The scattered distribution of five highly diverse AFP types across phylogenetically disparate fish species is puzzling. The appearance of radically different AFPs in closely related species has been attributed to the rapid, independent evolution of these proteins in response to natural selection caused by sea level glaciations within the last 20 million years. In at least one instance the same type of simple repetitive AFP has independently originated in two distant species by convergent evolution. But, the isolated occurrence of three very similar type II AFPs in three distantly related species (herring, smelt and sea raven) cannot be explained by this mechanism. These globular, lectin-like AFPs have a unique disulfide-bonding pattern, and share up to 85% identity in their amino acid sequences, with regions of even higher identity in their genes. A thorough search of current databases failed to find a homolog in any other species with greater than 40% amino acid sequence identity. Consistent with this result, genomic Southern blots showed the lectin-like AFP gene was absent from all other fish species tested. The remarkable conservation of both intron and exon sequences, the lack of correlation between evolutionary distance and mutation rate, and the pattern of silent vs non-silent codon changes make it unlikely that the gene for this AFP pre-existed but was lost from most branches of the teleost radiation. We propose instead that lateral gene transfer has resulted in the occurrence of the type II AFPs in herring, smelt and sea raven and allowed these species to survive in an otherwise lethal niche

Large-Scale Selective Sweep among Segregation Distorter Chromosomes in African Populations of Drosophila melanogaster

Segregation Distorter (SD) is a selfish, coadapted gene complex on chromosome 2 of Drosophila melanogaster that strongly distorts Mendelian transmission; heterozygous SD/SD+ males sire almost exclusively SD-bearing progeny. Fifty years of genetic, molecular, and theory work have made SD one of the best-characterized meiotic drive systems, but surprisingly the details of its evolutionary origins and population dynamics remain unclear. Earlier analyses suggested that the SD system arose recently in the Mediterranean basin and then spread to a low, stable equilibrium frequency (1–5%) in most natural populations worldwide. In this report, we show, first, that SD chromosomes occur in populations in sub-Saharan Africa, the ancestral range of D. melanogaster, at a similarly low frequency (∼2%), providing evidence for the robustness of its equilibrium frequency but raising doubts about the Mediterranean-origins hypothesis. Second, our genetic analyses reveal two kinds of SD chromosomes in Africa: inversion-free SD chromosomes with little or no transmission advantage; and an African-endemic inversion-bearing SD chromosome, SD-Mal, with a perfect transmission advantage. Third, our population genetic analyses show that SD-Mal chromosomes swept across the African continent very recently, causing linkage disequilibrium and an absence of variability over 39% of the length of the second chromosome. Thus, despite a seemingly stable equilibrium frequency, SD chromosomes continue to evolve, to compete with one another, or evade suppressors in the genome

Towards reconciling structure and function in the nuclear pore complex

The spatial separation between the cytoplasm and the cell nucleus necessitates the continuous exchange of macromolecular cargo across the double-membraned nuclear envelope. Being the only passageway in and out of the nucleus, the nuclear pore complex (NPC) has the principal function of regulating the high throughput of nucleocytoplasmic transport in a highly selective manner so as to maintain cellular order and function. Here, we present a retrospective review of the evidence that has led to the current understanding of both NPC structure and function. Looking towards the future, we contemplate on how various outstanding effects and nanoscopic characteristics ought to be addressed, with the goal of reconciling structure and function into a single unified picture of the NPC

Metabolic Rift or Metabolic Shift? Dialectics, Nature, and the World-Historical Method

Abstract In the flowering of Red-Green Thought over the past two decades, metabolic rift thinking is surely one of its most colorful varieties. The metabolic rift has captured the imagination of critical environmental scholars, becoming a shorthand for capitalism’s troubled relations in the web of life. This article pursues an entwined critique and reconstruction: of metabolic rift thinking and the possibilities for a post-Cartesian perspective on historical change, the world-ecology conversation. Far from dismissing metabolic rift thinking, my intention is to affirm its dialectical core. At stake is not merely the mode of explanation within environmental sociology. The impasse of metabolic rift thinking is suggestive of wider problems across the environmental social sciences, now confronted by a double challenge. One of course is the widespread—and reasonable—sense of urgency to evolve modes of thought appropriate to an era of deepening biospheric instability. The second is the widely recognized—but inadequately internalized—understanding that humans are part of nature