Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase

Enhanced warming over the global subtropical western boundary currents

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2011. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature Climate Change 2 (2012): 161-166, doi:10.1038/nclimate1353.Subtropical western boundary currents are warm, fast flowing currents that form on the western side of ocean basins. They carry warm tropical water to the mid-latitudes and vent large amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere along their paths, affecting atmospheric jet streams and mid-latitude storms, as well as ocean carbon uptake. The possibility that these highly energetic and nonlinear currents might change under greenhouse gas forcing has raised significant concerns, but detecting such changes is challenging owing to limited observations. Here, using reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and newly developed century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean warming rate. The accelerated warming is associated with a synchronous poleward shift and/or intensification of global subtropical western boundary currents in conjunction with a systematic change in winds over both hemispheres. This enhanced warming may reduce ocean's ability to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide over these regions. However, uncertainties in detection and attribution of these warming trends remain, pointing to a need for a long-term monitoring network of the global western boundary currents and their extensions.This work is supported by China National Key Basic Research Project (2007CB411800) and National Natural Science Foundation Projects (40788002, 40921004). WC is supported by the Australian Climate Change Science program and the Southeast Australia Climate Initiative. HN is supported in part by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology through Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas #2205 and by the Japanese Ministry of Environment through Global Environment Research Fund (S-5). MJM is supported by NOAA’s Climate Program Office.2012-07-2

Ocean and land forcing of the record-breaking Dust Bowl heat waves across central United States

International audienceThe severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socioeconomic and ecological disaster over North America's Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the widespread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world

Quantitative promoter methylation analysis of multiple cancer-related genes in renal cell tumors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Aberrant promoter hypermethylation of cancer-associated genes occurs frequently during carcinogenesis and may serve as a cancer biomarker. In this study we aimed at defining a quantitative gene promoter methylation panel that might identify the most prevalent types of renal cell tumors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A panel of 18 gene promoters was assessed by quantitative methylation-specific PCR (QMSP) in 85 primarily resected renal tumors representing the four major histologic subtypes (52 clear cell (ccRCC), 13 papillary (pRCC), 10 chromophobe (chRCC), and 10 oncocytomas) and 62 paired normal tissue samples. After genomic DNA isolation and sodium bisulfite modification, methylation levels were determined and correlated with standard clinicopathological parameters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant differences in methylation levels among the four subtypes of renal tumors were found for <it>CDH1 </it>(<it>p </it>= 0.0007), <it>PTGS2 </it>(<it>p </it>= 0.002), and <it>RASSF1A </it>(<it>p </it>= 0.0001). <it>CDH1 </it>hypermethylation levels were significantly higher in ccRCC compared to chRCC and oncocytoma (<it>p </it>= 0.00016 and <it>p </it>= 0.0034, respectively), whereas <it>PTGS2 </it>methylation levels were significantly higher in ccRCC compared to pRCC (<it>p </it>= 0.004). <it>RASSF1A </it>methylation levels were significantly higher in pRCC than in normal tissue (<it>p </it>= 0.035). In pRCC, <it>CDH1 </it>and <it>RASSF1A </it>methylation levels were inversely correlated with tumor stage (<it>p </it>= 0.031) and nuclear grade (<it>p </it>= 0.022), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The major subtypes of renal epithelial neoplasms display differential aberrant <it>CDH1</it>, <it>PTGS2</it>, and <it>RASSF1A </it>promoter methylation levels. This gene panel might contribute to a more accurate discrimination among common renal tumors, improving preoperative assessment and therapeutic decision-making in patients harboring suspicious renal masses.</p

Hydroclimatic Contrasts Over Asian Monsoon Areas and Linkages to Tropical Pacific SSTs

Knowledge of spatial and temporal hydroclimatic differences is critical in understanding climatic mechanisms. Here we show striking hydroclimatic contrasts between northern and southern parts of the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and those between East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) areas during the past ~2,000 years. During the Medieval Period, and the last 100 to 200 years, the southern ETP (S-ETP) area was generally dry (on average), while the northern ETP (N-ETP) area was wet. During the Little Ice Age (LIA), hydroclimate over S-ETP areas was wet, while that over N-ETP area was dry (on average). Such hydroclimatic contrasts can be broadly extended to ISM and EASM areas. We contend that changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Pacific Ocean could have played important roles in producing these hydroclimatic contrasts, by forcing the north-south movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and intensification/slowdown of Walker circulation. The results of sensitivity experiments also support such a proposition

Ecoregional Analysis of Nearshore Sea-Surface Temperature in the North Pacific

The quantification and description of sea surface temperature (SST) is critically important because it can influence the distribution, migration, and invasion of marine species; furthermore, SSTs are expected to be affected by climate change. To better understand present temperature regimes, we assembled a 29-year nearshore time series of mean monthly SSTs along the North Pacific coastline using remotely-sensed satellite data collected with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument. We then used the dataset to describe nearshore (<20 km offshore) SST patterns of 16 North Pacific ecoregions delineated by the Marine Ecoregions of the World (MEOW) hierarchical schema. Annual mean temperature varied from 3.8°C along the Kamchatka ecoregion to 24.8°C in the Cortezian ecoregion. There are smaller annual ranges and less variability in SST in the Northeast Pacific relative to the Northwest Pacific. Within the 16 ecoregions, 31–94% of the variance in SST is explained by the annual cycle, with the annual cycle explaining the least variation in the Northern California ecoregion and the most variation in the Yellow Sea ecoregion. Clustering on mean monthly SSTs of each ecoregion showed a clear break between the ecoregions within the Warm and Cold Temperate provinces of the MEOW schema, though several of the ecoregions contained within the provinces did not show a significant difference in mean seasonal temperature patterns. Comparison of these temperature patterns shared some similarities and differences with previous biogeographic classifications and the Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs). Finally, we provide a web link to the processed data for use by other researchers