Observation- and Model-Based Estimates of Particulate Dry Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans

© Author(s) 2017. This is an Open Access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License CC BY 3.0 ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ ). Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3−) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work,  ∼  2900 observations of aerosol NO3− and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995–2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes; however, these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux, are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here, the available observational data were averaged over a 5° × 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the Tracer Model 4 of the Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory (TM4): ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3− and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3− and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3− and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model–observation ratios (RA, n), weighted by grid-cell area and number of observations, were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 overestimates NO3− concentrations (RA, n =  1.4–2.9) and underestimates NH4+ concentrations (RA, n =  0.5–0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA, n =  0.6–2.6 for NO3−, 0.6–3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA, n for NHx CalDep–ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep–ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model–observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species' concentrations, and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Observation- and model-based estimates of particulate dry nitrogen deposition to the oceans

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) emissions to the atmosphere have increased significantly the deposition of nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) to the surface waters of the open ocean, with potential impacts on marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of the impacts of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce and validate models of nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition. In this work, ~2900 observations of aerosol NO3- and NH4+ concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, are used to assess the performance of modelled N concentration and deposition fields over the remote ocean. Three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) were selected, in which the density and distribution of observational data were considered sufficient to provide effective comparison to model products. All of these study regions are affected by transport and deposition of mineral dust, which alters the deposition of N, due to uptake of nitrogen oxides (NOx) on mineral surfaces. Assessment of the impacts of atmospheric N deposition on the ocean requires atmospheric chemical transport models to report deposition fluxes, however these fluxes cannot be measured over the ocean. Modelling studies such as the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), which only report deposition flux are therefore very difficult to validate for dry deposition. Here the available observational data were averaged over a 5° x 5° grid and compared to ACCMIP dry deposition fluxes (ModDep) of oxidised N (NOy) and reduced N (NHx) and to the following parameters from the TM4-ECPL (TM4) model: ModDep for NOy, NHx and particulate NO3- and NH4+, and surface-level particulate NO3- and NH4+ concentrations. As a model ensemble, ACCMIP can be expected to be more robust than TM4, while TM4 gives access to speciated parameters (NO3- and NH4+) that are more relevant to the observed parameters and which are not available in ACCMIP. Dry deposition fluxes (CalDep) were calculated from the observed concentrations using estimates of dry deposition velocities. Model – observation ratios, weighted by grid-cell area and numbers of observations, (RA,n) were used to assess the performance of the models. Comparison in the three study regions suggests that TM4 over-estimates NO3- concentrations (RA,n = 1.4 – 2.9) and under-estimates NH4+ concentrations (RA,n = 0.5 – 0.7), with spatial distributions in the tropical Atlantic and northern Indian Ocean not being reproduced by the model. In the case of NH4+ in the Indian Ocean, this discrepancy was probably due to seasonal biases in the sampling. Similar patterns were observed in the various comparisons of CalDep to ModDep (RA,n = 0.6 – 2.6 for NO3-, 0.6 – 3.1 for NH4+). Values of RA,n for NHx CalDep - ModDep comparisons were approximately double the corresponding values for NH4+ CalDep - ModDep comparisons due to the significant fraction of gas-phase NH3 deposition incorporated in the TM4 and ACCMIP NHx model products. All of the comparisons suffered due to the scarcity of observational data and the large uncertainty in dry deposition velocities used to derive deposition fluxes from concentrations. These uncertainties have been a major limitation on estimates of the flux of material to the oceans for several decades. Recommendations are made for improvements in N deposition estimation through changes in observations, modelling and model – observation comparison procedures. Validation of modelled dry deposition requires effective comparisons to observable aerosol-phase species concentrations and this cannot be achieved if model products only report dry deposition flux over the ocean

Management of Peripheral Arthritis in Patients With Psoriatic Arthritis: An Updated Literature Review Informing the 2021 GRAPPA Treatment Recommendations.

OBJECTIVE We aimed to compile evidence for the efficacy and safety of therapeutic options for the peripheral arthritis domain of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) for the revised 2021 Group in Research and Assessment of Psoriasis and Psoriatic Arthritis (GRAPPA) treatment recommendations. METHODS A working group consisting of clinicians and patient research partners was convened. We reviewed the evidence from new randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for PsA treatment from February 19, 2013, to August 28, 2020. We used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE)-informed approach to derive evidence for the classes of therapeutic options for 3 patient groups: (1) naïve to treatment, (2) inadequate response to conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs), and (3) inadequate response to biologic DMARDs (bDMARDs). Recommendations were derived through consensus meetings. RESULTS The evidence review included 69 RCTs. We derived GRADE evidence for each class of therapeutic options and achieved consensus for the recommendations. For patients naïve to treatment, the working group strongly recommends csDMARDs (methotrexate, sulfasalazine, leflunomide) and phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitors, and emphasizes regular assessment and early escalation to achieve treatment target. bDMARDs (tumor necrosis factor inhibitors [TNFi], interleukin 17 inhibitors [IL-17i], IL-12/23i, IL-23i) and Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) are also strongly recommended. For patients with inadequate response to csDMARDs, we strongly recommend TNFi, IL-17i, IL-12/23i, IL-23i, and JAKi. For those who had prior experience with bDMARDs, we strongly recommend a second TNFi, IL-17i, IL-23i, and JAKi. The evidence supporting nonpharmacological interventions was very low. An expert panel conditionally recommends adequate physical activity, smoking cessation, and diet to control weight gain. CONCLUSION Evidence supporting optimal therapy for the peripheral arthritis domain of PsA was compiled for the revised 2021 GRAPPA treatment recommendations

Large-scale, prospective, observational studies in patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis: A systematic and critical review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Observational studies, if conducted appropriately, play an important role in the decision-making process providing invaluable information on effectiveness, patient-reported outcomes and costs in a real-world environment. We conducted a systematic review of large-scale, prospective, cohort studies with the aim of (a) summarising design characteristics, the interventions or aspects of the disease studied and the outcomes measured and (b) investigating methodological quality.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included prospective, cohort studies which included at least 100 adults with psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis. Studies were identified through searches in electronic databases (Pubmed, Medline, Cochrane library, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination). Information on study characteristics were extracted and tabulated and quality assessment, using a checklist of 18 questions, was conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty five papers covering 16 cohorts met the inclusion criteria. There were ten treatment-related studies, only two of which provided a comparison between treatments, and six non-treatment studies which examined a number of characteristics of the disease including mortality, morbidity, cost of illness and health-related quality of life. All studies included a clinical outcome measure and 11 included patient-reported outcomes, however only two studies reported information on patient utilities and two on costs. The quality of the assessed studies varied widely. Studies did well on a number of quality assessment questions including having clear objectives, documenting selection criteria, providing a representative sample, defining interventions/characteristics under study, defining and using appropriate outcomes, describing results clearly and using appropriate statistical tests. The quality assessment criteria least adhered to involved questions regarding sample size calculations, describing potential selection bias, defining and adjusting for confounders and losses to follow-up, and defining and describing a comparison group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The review highlights the need for well designed prospective observational studies on the effectiveness, patient-reported outcomes and economic impact of treatment regimes for patients with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis in a real-world environment.</p