A Predictive Algorithm For Wetlands In Deep Time Paleoclimate Models

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas produced in wetland environments via microbial action in anaerobic conditions. If the location and extent of wetlands are unknown, such as for the Earth many millions of years in the past, a model of wetland fraction is required in order to calculate methane emissions and thus help reduce uncertainty in the understanding of past warm greenhouse climates. Here we present an algorithm for predicting inundated wetland fraction for use in calculating wetland methane emission fluxes in deep time paleoclimate simulations. The algorithm determines, for each grid cell in a given paleoclimate simulation, the wetland fraction predicted by a nearest neighbours search of modern day data in a space described by a set of environmental, climate and vegetation variables. To explore this approach, we first test it for a modern day climate with variables obtained from observations and then for an Eocene climate with variables derived from a fully coupled global climate model (HadCM3BL-M2.2). Two independent dynamic vegetation models were used to provide two sets of equivalent vegetation variables which yielded two different wetland predictions. As a first test the method, using both vegetation models, satisfactorily reproduces modern data wetland fraction at a course grid resolution, similar to those used in paleoclimate simulations. We then applied the method to an early Eocene climate, testing its outputs against the locations of Eocene coal deposits. We predict global mean monthly wetland fraction area for the early Eocene of 8 to 10 × 106km2 with corresponding total annual methane flux of 656 to 909 Tg, depending on which of two different dynamic global vegetation models are used to model wetland fraction and methane emission rates. Both values are significantly higher than estimates for the modern-day of 4 × 106km2 and around 190Tg (Poulter et. al. 2017, Melton et. al., 2013

Determining how atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have changed during the history of the Earth

The reconstruction of ancient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is essential to understanding the history of the Earth and life. It is also an important guide to identifying the sensitivity of the Earth system to this greenhouse gas and, therefore, constraining its future impact on climate. However, determining the concentration of CO2 in ancient atmospheres is a challenging endeavour requiring the application of state-of-the-art analytical chemistry to geological materials, underpinned by an understanding of photosynthesis and biochemistry. It is truly an interdisciplinary challenge

Immediate effects of microclimate modification enhance native shrub encroachment

Shrubs have become more dense and expanded beyond their range all over the world for a variety of reasons including increased temperatures, overgrazing, and alteration of historical fire regime. Native shrubs have been encroaching on Virginia barrier island grasslands for over half a century for unknown reasons. Species composition, soil nutrients, leaf area index (LAI), and ground and air temperature were recorded across the shrub to grass transition and at free-standing shrubs in a coastal grassland in order to determine the effect of shrub encroachment on plant community and microclimate. Species richness was significantly lower inside shrub thickets. Soil water content, organic matter, nitrogen (N), carbon (C), and LAI were higher in shrub thickets and free-standing shrubs compared to grasslands. Summer and fall maximum temperatures were lower and more moderate where shrubs were present. Fall and winter minimum temperatures were highest inside shrub thickets. Native shrubs impact microclimate and species composition immediately upon encroachment. These shrubs lower overall species composition, increase soil nutrients and moisture, moderate summer temperature, and increase winter temperature, which has consequences on a larger scale. As barrier islands are critical for protecting marsh and mainland habitats, understanding this mechanism for shrub expansion is important to predict future encroachment of shrubs and displacement of grassland habitat

Loop amplitudes in gauge theories: modern analytic approaches

This article reviews on-shell methods for analytic computation of loop amplitudes, emphasizing techniques based on unitarity cuts. Unitarity techniques are formulated generally but have been especially useful for calculating one-loop amplitudes in massless theories such as Yang-Mills theory, QCD, and QED.Comment: 34 pages. Invited review for a special issue of Journal of Physics A devoted to "Scattering Amplitudes in Gauge Theories." v2: typesetting macro error fixe

NLO Higgs boson production plus one and two jets using the POWHEG BOX, MadGraph4 and MCFM

We present a next-to-leading order calculation of Higgs boson production plus one and two jets via gluon fusion interfaced to shower Monte Carlo programs, implemented according to the POWHEG method. For this implementation we have used a new interface of the POWHEG BOX with MadGraph4, that generates the codes for generic Born and real processes automatically. The virtual corrections have been taken from the MCFM code. We carry out a simple phenomenological study of our generators, comparing them among each other and with fixed next-to-leading order results.Comment: 27 pages, 21 figure

Multigluon tree amplitudes with a pair of massive fermions

We consider the calculation of n-point multigluon tree amplitudes with a pair of massive fermions in QCD. We give the explicit transformation rules of this kind of massive fermion-pair amplitudes with respect to different reference momenta and check the correctness of them by SUSY Ward identities. Using these rules and onshell BCFW recursion relation, we calculate the analytic results of several n-point multigluon amplitudes.Comment: 15page

Relative performance of antimicrobial susceptibility assays on clinical Escherichia coli isolates from animals

The assessment of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria derived from animals is often performed using the disc diffusion assay. However broth-microdilution is the preferred assay for national antimicrobial resistance surveillance programs. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of disc diffusion relative to broth-microdilution across a panel of 12 antimicrobials using data from a collection of 994 clinical Escherichia coli isolates from animals. Disc diffusion performance was evaluated by diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio pairs and receive-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Data was dichotomised using CLSI susceptible and resistant clinical breakpoints. In addition, disc diffusion breakpoints produced using diffusion Breakpoint Estimation Testing Software (dBETS) were evaluated. Analysis revealed considerable variability in performance estimates for disc diffusion susceptible and resistant breakpoints (AUC ranges: 0.78–0.99 and 0.92–1.0, respectively) across the panel of antimicrobials. Ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and ampicillin estimates were robust across both breakpoints, whereas estimates for several antimicrobials including amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, cefoxitin and gentamicin were less favourable using susceptible breakpoints. Overall performance estimates were moderately improved when dBETS susceptible breakpoints were applied. For most antimicrobials, disc diffusion was accurate at predicting resistance of clinical E. coli from animals that could otherwise be determined by broth-microdilution. While disc diffusion is suboptimal for assessing the proportion of fully susceptible isolates for some drugs, sensitivity and specificity estimates provided here allow for the use of standard formula to correct this. For this reason, disc diffusion has applicability in national surveillance provided the performance of the assay is taken into account

A direct proof of the CSW rules

Using recursion methods similar to those of Britto, Cachazo, Feng and Witten (BCFW) a direct proof of the CSW rules for computing tree-level gluon amplitudes is given.Comment: 11 pages, uses axodraw.st

Automated analysis of atrial late gadolinium enhancement imaging that correlates with endocardial voltage and clinical outcomes: A 2-center study

This work was supported by the British Heart Foundation PG/10/37/28347, RG/10/11/28457, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre funding, and the ElectroCardioMaths Programme of the Imperial BHF Centre of Research Excellence

SAGA: A project to automate the management of software production systems

The project to automate the management of software production systems is described. The SAGA system is a software environment that is designed to support most of the software development activities that occur in a software lifecycle. The system can be configured to support specific software development applications using given programming languages, tools, and methodologies. Meta-tools are provided to ease configuration. Several major components of the SAGA system are completed to prototype form. The construction methods are described