Likelihood informed dimension reduction for inverse problems in remote sensing of atmospheric constituent profiles

We use likelihood informed dimension reduction (LIS) (T. Cui et al. 2014) for inverting vertical profile information of atmospheric methane from ground based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements at Sodankyl\"a, Northern Finland. The measurements belong to the word wide TCCON network for greenhouse gas measurements and, in addition to providing accurate greenhouse gas measurements, they are important for validating satellite observations. LIS allows construction of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm that explores only a reduced dimensional space but still produces a good approximation of the original full dimensional Bayesian posterior distribution. This in effect makes the statistical estimation problem independent of the discretization of the inverse problem. In addition, we compare LIS to a dimension reduction method based on prior covariance matrix truncation used earlier (S. Tukiainen et al. 2016)

The water vapour distribution in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere during the LAUTLOS campaign and related transport processes including stratosphere-troposphere exchange

International audienceBalloon-borne water vapour measurements during January and February 2004, which were obtained as part of the LAUTLOS campaign at Sodankylä, Finland, 67° N, were used to analyse the water vapour distribution in the wintertime Arctic lowermost stratosphere. A 2.5 km thick layer (or 30 K in the potential temperature scale) above the tropopause is characterized by a significant water vapour variability on a synoptic timescale with values between stratospheric and tropospheric, which is in good agreement with previously reported measurements. A cross-correlation analysis of ozone and water vapour confirms that this layer contains a mixture of stratospheric and tropospheric air masses. Some of the flights sampled laminae of enhanced water vapour above the tropopause. Meteorological analyses and backward trajectory calculations show that these features were related to filaments that had developed along the flanks of cut-off anticyclones, which had been active at this time over the Northern Atlantic. The role of the filaments was however not to transport water vapour from the troposphere to the stratosphere but rather to transport it within the stratosphere away from regions where intensive two-way stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) was identified. Intensive STE occurred around cut-off anticyclones in regions of strong winds, where calculations suggest the presence of clear-air turbulence (CAT). Evidences that CAT contributes to the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport (TST) are presented. However, statistically, relation between TST and CAT during the studied period is weak

The water vapour distribution in the Arctic lowermost stratosphere during LAUTLOS campaign and related transport processes including stratosphere-troposphere exchange

International audienceBalloon-borne water vapour measurements during January and February 2004, which were obtained as part of the LAUTLOS campaign at Sodankylä, Finland, 67° N, were used to analyse the water vapour distribution in the wintertime Arctic lowermost stratosphere. A 2.5 km thick layer (or 30 K in the potential temperature scale) above the local tropopause is characterized by a significant water vapour variability on a synoptic timescale with values between stratospheric and tropospheric, which is in good agreement with previously reported measurements. A cross-correlation analysis of ozone and water vapour confirms that this layer contains a mixture of stratospheric and tropospheric air masses. Some of the flights sampled laminae of enhanced water vapour above the tropopause. Meteorological analyses and backward trajectory calculations show that these features are related to filaments that had developed along the flanks of cut-off anticyclones, which had been active at this time over the Northern Atlantic. Cross-tropopause mass fluxes calculated following the Wei method are used to identify regions and processes that are important for stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) in high-latitudes. Intensive STE occurs around cut-off anticyclones in regions of strong winds, where calculations suggest the presence of developed clear-air turbulence. The decay of the filaments is also shown to be important for STE

Development of a data-assimilation system to forecast agricultural systems: A case study of constraining soil water and soil nitrogen dynamics in the APSIM model

As we face today\u27s large-scale agricultural issues, the need for robust methods of agricultural forecasting has never been clearer. Yet, the accuracy and precision of our forecasts remains limited by current tools and methods. To overcome the limitations of process-based models and observed data, we iteratively designed and tested a generalizable and robust data-assimilation system that systematically constrains state variables in the APSIM model to improve forecast accuracy and precision. Our final novel system utilizes the Ensemble Kalman Filter to constrain model states and update model parameters at observed time steps and incorporates an algorithm that improves system performance through the joint estimation of system error matrices. We tested this system at the Energy Farm, a well-monitored research site in central Illinois, where we assimilated observed in situ soil moisture at daily time steps for two years and evaluated how assimilation impacted model forecasts of soil moisture, yield, leaf area index, tile flow, and nitrate leaching by comparing estimates with in situ observations. The system improved the accuracy and precision of soil moisture estimates for the assimilation layers by an average of 42% and 48%, respectively, when compared to the free model. Such improvements led to changes in the model\u27s soil water and nitrogen processes and, on average, increased accuracy in forecasts of annual tile flow by 43% and annual nitrate loads by 10%. Forecasts of aboveground measures did not dramatically change with assimilation, a fact which highlights the limited potential of soil moisture as a constraint for a site with no water stress. Extending the scope of previous work, our results demonstrate the power of data assimilation to constrain important model estimates beyond the assimilated state variable, such as nitrate leaching. Replication of this study is necessary to further define the limitations and opportunities of the developed system

Matching radiative transfer models and radiosonde data from the EPS/Metop Sodankylä campaign to IASI measurements

Radiances observed from IASI are compared to calculated ones. Calculated radiances are obtained using several radiative transfer models (OSS, LBLRTM v11.3 and v11.6) on best estimates of the atmospheric state vectors. The atmospheric state vectors are derived from cryogenic frost point hygrometer and humidity dry bias corrected RS92 measurements flown on sondes launched 1 h and 5 min before IASI overpass time. The temperature and humidity best estimate profiles are obtained by interpolating or extrapolating these measurements to IASI overpass time. The IASI observed and calculated radiances match to within one sigma IASI instrument noise in the spectral region where water vapour is a strong absorber (wavenumber, ν, in the range of 1500 ≤ ν ≤ 1570 and 1615 ≤ ν ≤ 1800 cm<sup>−1</sup>)

Global physics-based database of injection-induced seismicity

Fluid injection into geological formations for energy resource development frequently induces (micro)seismicity. Moderate- to large-magnitude induced earthquakes may cause injuries and/or economic loss, with the consequence of jeopardizing the operation and future development of these geo-energy projects. To achieve an improved understanding of the mechanisms of induced seismicity, develop forecasting tools and manage the associated risks, it is necessary to carefully examine seismic data from reported cases of induced seismicity and the parameters controlling them. However, these data are challenging to gather together and are time-consuming to collate as they come from different disciplines and sources. Here, we present a publicly available, multi-physical database of injection-induced seismicity (Kivi et al., 2022a; https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/14813), sourced from an extensive review of published documents. Currently, it contains 158 datasets of induced seismicity caused by various subsurface energy-related applications worldwide. Each dataset covers a wide range of variables, delineating general site information, host rock properties, in situ geologic and tectonic conditions, fault characteristics, conducted field operations, and recorded seismic activities. We publish the database in flat-file formats (i.e., .xls and .csv tables) to facilitate its dissemination and utilization by geoscientists while keeping it directly readable by computer codes for convenient data manipulation. The multi-disciplinary content of this database adds unique value to databases focusing only on seismicity data. In particular, the collected data aim at facilitating the understanding of the spatiotemporal occurrence of induced earthquakes, the diagnosis of potential triggering mechanisms, and the development of scaling relations of maximum possible earthquake magnitudes and operational parameters. The database will boost research in seismic hazard forecasting and mitigation, paving the way for increasing contributions of geo-energy resources to meeting net-zero carbon emissions.</p

Arctic stratospheric dehydration – Part 2: Microphysical modeling

Large areas of synoptic-scale ice PSCs (polar stratospheric clouds) distinguished the Arctic winter 2009/2010 from other years and revealed unprecedented evidence of water redistribution in the stratosphere. A unique snapshot of water vapor repartitioning into ice particles was obtained under extremely cold Arctic conditions with temperatures around 183 K. Balloon-borne, aircraft and satellite-based measurements suggest that synoptic-scale ice PSCs and concurrent reductions and enhancements in water vapor are tightly linked with the observed de- and rehydration signatures, respectively. In a companion paper (Part 1), water vapor and aerosol backscatter measurements from the RECONCILE (Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions) and LAPBIAT-II (Lapland Atmosphere–Biosphere Facility) field campaigns have been analyzed in detail. This paper uses a column version of the Zurich Optical and Microphysical box Model (ZOMM) including newly developed NAT (nitric acid trihydrate) and ice nucleation parameterizations. Particle sedimentation is calculated in order to simulate the vertical redistribution of chemical species such as water and nitric acid. Despite limitations given by wind shear and uncertainties in the initial water vapor profile, the column modeling unequivocally shows that (1) accounting for small-scale temperature fluctuations along the trajectories is essential in order to reach agreement between simulated optical cloud properties and observations, and (2) the use of recently developed heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterizations allows the reproduction of the observed signatures of de- and rehydration. Conversely, the vertical redistribution of water measured cannot be explained in terms of homogeneous nucleation of ice clouds, whose particle radii remain too small to cause significant dehydration

Formation of solid particles in synoptic-scale Arctic PSCs in early winter 2002/2003

International audiencePolar stratospheric clouds (PSC) have been observed in early winter (December 2002) during the SOLVE II/Vintersol campaign, both from balloons carrying comprehensive instrumentation for measurements of chemical composition, size distributions, and optical properties of the particles, as well as from individual backscatter soundings from Esrange and Sodankylä. The observations are unique in the sense that the PSC particles seem to have formed in the early winter under synoptic temperature conditions and not being influenced by mountain lee waves. A sequence of measurements during a 5-days period shows a gradual change between liquid and solid type PSCs with the development of a well-known sandwich structure. It appears that all PSC observations show the presence of a background population of solid particles, occasionally mixed in with more optically dominating liquid particles. The measurements have been compared with results from a detailed microphysical and optical simulation of the formation processes. Calculated extinctions are in good agreement with SAGE-III measurements from the same period. Apparently the solid particles are controlled by the synoptic temperature history while the presence of liquid particles is controlled by the local temperatures at the time of observation. The temperature histories indicate that the solid particles are nucleated above the ice frost point, and a surface freezing mechanism for this is included in the model. Reducing the calculated freezing rates by a factor 10-20, the model is able to simulate the observed particle size distributions and reproduce observed HNO3 gas phase concentrations