UK Housing Market: Time Series Processes with Independent and Identically Distributed Residuals

The paper examines whether a univariate data generating process can be identified which explains the data by having residuals that are independent and identically distributed, as verified by the BDS test. The stationary first differenced natural log quarterly house price index is regressed, initially with a constant variance and then with a conditional variance. The only regression function that produces independent and identically distributed standardised residuals is a mean process based on a pure random walk format with Exponential GARCH in mean for the conditional variance. There is an indication of an asymmetric volatility feedback effect but higher frequency data is required to confirm this. There could be scope for forecasting the index but this is tempered by the reduction in the power of the BDS test if there is a non-linear conditional variance process

Determinación paramétrica de los ejes de rotación de las articulaciones interfalángicas de los dedos

Comunicación presentada en el XXI Congreso Nacional de Ingeniería Mecánica, celebrado en Elche en Noviembre de 2016.Los ejes de rotación de las articulaciones interfalángicas de los dedos son aproximadamente paralelos a los pliegues de flexión. Sin embargo, los modelos biomecánicos y ergonómicos existentes suelen considerar ejes de rotación paralelos entre sí y perpendiculares a los ejes longitudinales de las falanges. Recientemente se han utilizado técnicas de resonancia magnética para determinar su ubicación, pero su uso de forma extensiva supone riesgos, y no está disponible en todos los laboratorios. En este trabajo se estudia el uso de marcadores reflectantes sobre la piel para localizar los ejes de rotación de las articulaciones interfalángicas de los dedos, y se estudia su posible presentación paramétrica. Para ello, se localizaron los ejes de rotación de 30 sujetos con tamaños de mano representativos de la población española, mediante el seguimiento de 12 marcadores (3 de referencia y 9 de seguimiento) sobre cada dedo. En cada articulación se definieron los sistemas de coordenadas en los segmentos proximal y distal a partir de los marcadores de referencia. La localización de los ejes de rotación se describió mediante las coordenadas de la intersección del eje con el plano sagital (Px y Py) y las inclinaciones con respecto de los planos frontal y transversal ( f y t) de cada dedo. Estos 4 parámetros se obtuvieron de comparar, mediante un método evolutivo de optimización, las matrices de transformación experimentales entre los segmentos proximal y distal, con las analíticas, en un registro dinámico de flexión/extensión. Los valores medios obtenidos para las inclinaciones con los planos frontal y transversal resultaron ser menores de 11 y 4 grados, respectivamente, con una dispersión (8 y 4 grados) que, aun siendo moderada, no permitió obtener datos con suficiente precisión para la mejora de los modelos biomecánicos existentes. Mediante análisis jerárquicos se comprobó que esta dispersión se debe en parte a la variabilidad anatómica entre sujetos. Los resultados en cuanto a localización fueron más fiables, habiendo identificado correlación de Pearson significativa de la profundidad a la que se encuentra el eje con el grosor de la articulación (43% a 52% del grosor), y correspondiendo el posicionamiento longitudinal con el de los marcadores utilizados

Nonlinear resonance reflection from and transmission through a dense glassy system built up of oriented linear Frenkel chains: two-level models

A theoretical study of the resonance optical response of assemblies of oriented short (as compared to an optical wavelength) linear Frenkel chains is carried out using a two-level model. We show that both transmittivity and reflectivity of the film may behave in a bistable fashion and analyze how the effects found depend on the film thickness and on the inhomogeneous width of the exciton optical transition.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figure

Radiocarbon dates for the late Pleistocene and Early Holocene occupations of Cova Rosa (Ribadesella, Asturias, Spain)

Four excavations have been performed at the archaeological site of Cova Rosa (Asturias, Cantabrian Spain): three of them in the second half of last century and the other in this decade. Although little of the archaeological material found in those excavations has been published, here we attempt the stratigraphic correlation of sections revealed by the different excavations and we present 22 new radiocarbon dates for bones and marine shells, built in a Bayesian statistical model. This has enabled the documentation of occupations that mainly took place during the Last Glacial period, in the Solutrean (middle and upper phases) and Magdalenian (archaic, lower, and upper phases), and also in the early Holocene (Mesolithic). These occupations are compared with the record at other sites in Cantabrian Spain in general and in Asturias, in particular.Introduction Cova Rosa Cave - Geographical and Geological Setting - History of Research - Stratigraphy Radiocarbon dates at Cova Rosa - Method - Validity Analysis - Results and Critical Assessment - Solutrean - Magdalenian - Mesolithic Discussion: 14C chronology of Cova Rosa Conclusion

A computational framework to emulate the human perspective in flow cytometric data analysis

Background: In recent years, intense research efforts have focused on developing methods for automated flow cytometric data analysis. However, while designing such applications, little or no attention has been paid to the human perspective that is absolutely central to the manual gating process of identifying and characterizing cell populations. In particular, the assumption of many common techniques that cell populations could be modeled reliably with pre-specified distributions may not hold true in real-life samples, which can have populations of arbitrary shapes and considerable inter-sample variation. <p/>Results: To address this, we developed a new framework flowScape for emulating certain key aspects of the human perspective in analyzing flow data, which we implemented in multiple steps. First, flowScape begins with creating a mathematically rigorous map of the high-dimensional flow data landscape based on dense and sparse regions defined by relative concentrations of events around modes. In the second step, these modal clusters are connected with a global hierarchical structure. This representation allows flowScape to perform ridgeline analysis for both traversing the landscape and isolating cell populations at different levels of resolution. Finally, we extended manual gating with a new capacity for constructing templates that can identify target populations in terms of their relative parameters, as opposed to the more commonly used absolute or physical parameters. This allows flowScape to apply such templates in batch mode for detecting the corresponding populations in a flexible, sample-specific manner. We also demonstrated different applications of our framework to flow data analysis and show its superiority over other analytical methods. <p/>Conclusions: The human perspective, built on top of intuition and experience, is a very important component of flow cytometric data analysis. By emulating some of its approaches and extending these with automation and rigor, flowScape provides a flexible and robust framework for computational cytomics

Phase IV open-label study of the efficacy and safety of deferasirox after allogeneic stem cell transplantation

This is the first prospective study of deferasirox in adult allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients with transfusional iron overload in hematologic malignancies. Patients at least six months post transplant were treated with deferasirox at a starting dose of 10 mg/kg/day for 52 weeks or until serum ferritin was less than 400 ng/mL on two consecutive occasions. Thirty patients were enrolled and 22 completed the study. A significant reduction from baseline in median serum ferritin and in liver iron concentration at 52 weeks was observed in the overall population: from 1440 to 755.5 ng/mL (P=0.002) and from 14.5 to 4.6 mg Fe/g dw (P=0.0007), respectively. Reduction in serum ferritin in patients who did not discontinue deferasirox therapy was significantly greater than that found in those who prematurely discontinued the treatment (from 1541 to 581 ng/mL vs. from 1416 to 1486 ng/mL; P=0.008). Drug-related adverse events, reported in 17 patients (56.7%), were mostly mild to moderate in severity. There were no drug-related serious adverse events. Twelve patients (40.0%) showed an increase of over 33% in serum creatinine compared to baseline and greater than the upper limit of normal on two consecutive visits. Two patients (6.7%) with active graft-versus-host disease showed an increase in alanine aminotransferase exceeding 10 times upper limit of normal; both resolved. In this prospective study, deferasirox provided a significant reduction in serum ferritin and liver iron concentration over one year of treatment in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients with iron overload. In addition, the majority of adverse events related to deferasirox were mild or moderate in severity. (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01335035)

Cellular Immunity to Predict the Risk of Cytomegalovirus Infection in Kidney Transplantation: A Prospective, Interventional, Multicenter Clinical Trial

Background: Improving cytomegalovirus (CMV) immune-risk stratification in kidney transplantation is highly needed to establish guided preventive strategies. Methods: This prospective, interventional, multicenter clinical trial assessed the value of monitoring pretransplant CMV-specific cell-mediated immunity (CMI) using an interferon-γrelease assay to predict CMV infection in kidney transplantation. One hundred sixty donor/recipient CMV-seropositive (D+/R+) patients, stratified by their baseline CMV (immediate-early protein 1)-specific CMI risk, were randomized to receive either preemptive or 3-month antiviral prophylaxis. Also, 15-day posttransplant CMI risk stratification and CMI specific to the 65 kDa phosphoprotein (pp65) CMV antigen were investigated. Immunosuppression consisted of basiliximab, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and corticosteroids in 80% of patients, whereas 20% received thymoglobulin induction therapy. Results: Patients at high risk for CMV based on pretransplant CMI developed significantly higher CMV infection rates than those deemed to be at low risk with both preemptive (73.3% vs 44.4%; odds ratio [OR], 3.44 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.30-9.08]) and prophylaxis (33.3% vs 4.1%; OR, 11.75 [95% CI, 2.31-59.71]) approaches. The predictive capacity for CMV-specific CMI was only found in basiliximab-treated patients for both preemptive and prophylaxis therapy. Fifteen-day CMI risk stratification better predicted CMV infection (81.3% vs 9.1%; OR, 43.33 [95% CI, 7.89-237.96]). Conclusions: Pretransplant CMV-specific CMI identifies D+/R+ kidney recipients at high risk of developing CMV infection if not receiving T-cell-depleting antibodies. Monitoring CMV-specific CMI soon after transplantation further defines the CMV infection prediction risk. Monitoring CMV-specific CMI may guide decision making regarding the type of CMV preventive strategy in kidney transplantation. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02550639

La Cuevona de Avín (Avín, Asturias, North Spain): A new Late Pleistocene site in the lower valley of the River Güeña

The archaeological investigations carried out in the last twenty years in the Lower Valley of the River Güeña (Asturias, central part of northern Spain) have documented different prehistoric sites, particularly with Middle and Upper Palaeolithic occupations. This paper presents the first results of the archaeological excavation carried out in the cave of La Cuevona de Avín. From the systematic study of the biotic and abiotic remains, a total of three occupation phases (Phases 1 to 3) have been determined, dated in the Late Pleistocene. The lithic studies indicate the use of local raw materials (mainly quartzite), but also regional ones (different types of flint) in the whole sequence. Retouched implements are typologically representative only during the Upper Magdalenian (Phase II) and use-wear analysis indicates the manufacture and use of artefacts in situ during this phase. Archaeozoological studies reveal continuity in subsistence strategies throughout the sequence, noting specialization in red deer hunting during the Azilian (Phase I), and more diversified prey in the older phases of the sequence. © 2022 The Author(s

Artículos publicados en el diario El País sobre Antonio Fernández Alba

Artículos publicados sobre Antonio Fernández Alba en el diario El Paí