Pacific circulation response to eastern Arctic sea ice reduction in seasonal forecast simulations

Recent studies point to the sensitivity of mid-latitude winter climate to Arctic sea ice variability. However, there remain contradictory results in terms of character and timing of Northern Hemisphere large-scale circulation features to Arctic sea ice changes. This study assesses the impact of realistic late autumn eastern Arctic sea ice anomalies on atmospheric wintertime circulation at mid-latitudes, pointing to a hidden potential for seasonal predictability. ​Using a dynamical seasonal prediction system, an ensemble of seasonal forecast simulations of 23 historical winter seasons is run with reduced November sea ice cover in the Barents-Kara Seas, and is compared to the respective control seasonal hindcast simulations set. ​A non energy-conserving approach is adopted for achieving the desired sea ice loss, with artificial heat being added conditionally to the ocean surface heat fluxes so as to inhibit the formation of sea ice during November. Our results point to a robust atmospheric circulation response in the North Pacific sector, similar to previous findings on the multidecadal timescale. Specifically, an anticyclonic anomaly at upper and lower levels is identified over the eastern midlatitude North Pacific, leading to dry conditions over the North American southwest coast. The responses are related to a re-organization (weakening) of west-Pacific tropical convection and interactions with the tropical Hadley circulation. ​A possible interaction of the poleward-shifted Pacific eddy-driven jet stream and the Hadley cell is discussed​. ​The winter circulation response in the Euro-Atlantic sector is ephemeral in character and statistically significant in January only, corroborating previous findings of an intermittent and non-stationary Arctic sea ice-NAO link during boreal winter. These results ​aid our understanding of the seasonal impacts of reduced eastern Arctic sea ice on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation with implications for seasonal predictability in wintertime

Privredni ribolov na Dunavu u Srbiji

U radu se daje pregled slatkovodnog ribarstva sa aspekta upravljanja, ekspolatacije ribljih resursa, tržišta ribom, legislative koja uređuje delatnost ribarstva, kao i problemi sektora ribarstva u Srbiji. Istraživanje i analiza privrednog ribolova na Dunavu kroz Srbiju (588 km toka) sprovedeno je prikupljanjem podataka ribarske statistike za period od 1948. do 2010. godine, njihovim unošenjem u elektronsku bazu i analiziranjem uz korišćenje različitih metoda. Statistički podaci uključuju ukupan ulov, ulov rekreativnog i privrednog ribolova, ulov privredno značajnih vrsta i alohtonih vrsta. Korišćenjem anketnog upitnika za ribare dobijeni su podaci o demografskoj strukturi ribara koji se bave ribarenjem kao osnovnom delatnošću, o sastavu ulova, koliko je ribarstvo perspektivna privredna grana i koji su problemi i potencijalna rešenja. Većina ribara pripada starosnoj grupi koja je u opsegu od 45 do 50 godina. Privredni ribolov je važna ekonomska delatnost i predstavlja osnovni izvor prihoda za većinu ribara. Tržište slatkovodnom ribom je neuređena oblast koja zavisi od ličnog zalaganja i odgovornosti pojedinca koji ima interes u prodaji ribe. Ribarstvo na Dunavu u Srbiji je već dugi niz godina u procesu tranzicije ka tržišnoj ekonomiji. Dugoročne fluktuacije hidroloških podataka (vodostaj) upoređivane su sa fluktuacijama godišnjeg ulova ribe iz Dunava kako bi se uočila eventualna međusobna zavisnost i uporedili njihovi trendovi. Rezultati ovog istraživanja treba da posluže kao pregled stanja sektora sa svim postojećim nedostacima koje treba ispraviti u cilju što uspešnijeg upravljanja ribarstvom na Dunavu i ostalim rekama u Srbiji gde je zastupljen privredni ribolov

Can energy fluxes be used to interpret glacial/interglacial precipitation changes in the Tropics?

Recent theoretical advances in the relationship between heat transport and the position of the inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) present an elegant framework through which to interpret past changes in tropical precipitation patterns. Using a very large ensemble of climate model simulations we investigate whether it is possible to use this framework to interpret changes in the position of the ITCZ in response to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions. We find that the centroid of tropical precipitation, which represents the evolution of precipitation in the whole tropics, is best correlated with heat transport changes. We find that the response of the annual mean ITCZ to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions is quite different to the response of the climatological annual cycle of the ITCZ to the seasonal cycle of insolation. We show that the reason for this is that while the Hadley Circulation plays a dominant role in transporting heat over the seasonal cycle, in the annual mean response to forcing, the Hadley Circulation is not dominant. When we look regionally, rather than at the zonal mean, we find that local precipitation is poorly related to either the zonal mean ITCZ or to meridional heat transport. We demonstrate that precipitation is spatially highly variable even when the zonal mean ITCZ is in the same location. This suggests only limited use for heat transport in explaining local precipitation records, thus there is limited scope for using heat transport changes to explain individual paleo-precipitation records

The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond

Subregional DXA-derived vertebral bone mineral measures are stronger predictors of failure load in specimens with lower areal bone mineral density, compared to those with higher areal bone mineral density

Measurement of areal bone mineral density (aBMD) in intravertebral subregions may increase the diagnostic sensitivity of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived parameters for vertebral fragility. This study investigated whether DXA-derived bone parameters in vertebral subregions were better predictors of vertebral bone strength in specimens with low aBMD, compared to those with higher aBMD. Twenty-five lumbar vertebrae (15 embalmed and 10 fresh-frozen) were scanned with posteroanterior- (PA) and lateral-projection DXA, and then mechanically tested in compression to ultimate failure. Whole-vertebral aBMD and bone mineral content (BMC) were measured from the PA- and lateral-projection scans and within 6 intravertebral subregions. Multivariate regression was used to predict ultimate failure load by BMC, adjusted for vertebral size and specimen fixation status across the whole specimen set, and when subgrouped into specimens with low aBMD and high aBMD. Adjusted BMC explained a substantial proportion of variance in ultimate vertebral load, when measured over the whole vertebral area in lateral projection (adjusted R2 0.84) and across the six subregions (ROIs 2–7) (adjusted R2 range 0.58–0.78). The association between adjusted BMC, either measured subregionally or across the whole vertebral area, and vertebral failure load, was increased for the subgroup of specimens with identified ‘low aBMD’, compared to those with ‘high aBMD’, particularly in the anterior subregion where the adjusted R2 differed by 0.44. The relative contribution of BMC measured in vertebral subregions to ultimate failure load is greater among specimens with lower aBMD, compared to those with higher aBMD, particularly in the anterior subregion of the vertebral body

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Springer Nature via the DOI in this recordThe decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.J.A.S. and R.B. were funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P006760/1). C.D. acknowledges the National Science Foundation (NSF), which sponsors the National Center for Atmospheric Research. D.M.S. was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and the APPLICATE project, which is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme. X.Z. was supported by the NSF (ARC#1023592). P.J.K. and K.E.M. were supported by the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network, which is funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada. T.O. was funded by Environment and Climate Change Canada (GCXE17S038). L.S. was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office

Institutional investors and corporate governance

We provide a comprehensive overview of the role of institutional investors in corporate governance with three main components. First, we establish new stylized facts documenting the evolution and importance of institutional ownership. Second, we provide a detailed characterization of key aspects of the legal and regulatory setting within which institutional investors govern portfolio firms. Third, we synthesize the evolving response of the recent theoretical and empirical academic literature in finance to the emergence of institutional investors in corporate governance. We highlight how the defining aspect of institutional investors – the fact that they are financial intermediaries – differentiates them in their governance role from standard principal blockholders. Further, not all institutional investors are identical, and we pay close attention to heterogeneity amongst institutional investors as blockholders

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Data availability: All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the Supplementary Materials. Data were collected within the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available.Code availability: A sample of the analysis code is available from https://github.com/CHENlab-Yale/MCC_ProjAging_Temp .Supplementary information is available online at: https://link-springer-com.ezproxytest.brunel.ac.uk/article/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z#Sec15 .Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modeling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF. K.C. was supported by the Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant. A.G., A.S., and S.R. were supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion grant (820655). A.G. was also supported by the Medical Research Council UK grant (MR/V034162/1). J.M. received funding from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnlogia Grant (SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). A.T. was supported by the MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 grant (CEX2018-000794-S). A.U. and J.K. were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S). F.S. was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project 2023-2027 ReDS ‘Rethinking Data Science’ - Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications - University of Florence. MNM. was supported by the European Commission (H2020-MSCA-IF-2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. A.V.C. acknowledges the support of the Swiss National Foundation (TMSGI3_211626). V.H. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.: 101032087)

Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Data sharing: All data used in our study were obtained from the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data-sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Researchers can refer to collaborators of the Network, who are listed as coauthors of this Article (primary contact: Antonio Gasparrini, [email protected]), for information on accessing the data for each country. The R code is available on request, and a reproducible example is publicly available on the personal GitHub website of the first author (https://github.com/LinaMadaniyazi).For more on the MCC see https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002693#sec1 .Background: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.This study was primarily supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant number JPMEERF20231007) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. MH was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of the Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (grant number JPMJSC20E4). AG was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/V034162/1) and the EU's Horizon 2020 research project Exhaustion (grant number 820655). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project 22–24920S). JJKJ was supported by the Academy of Finland (grant number 310372; Global Health Risks Related to Atmospheric Composition and Weather Consortium). FS was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, Department of Excellence project 2023–2027, Rethinking Data Science—Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications—University of Florence