Finite Sample Properties of Parameterized Expectations Algorithm Solutions; Is the Length So Determinant?

The solution of the Parameterized Expectations Algorithm (PEA) is well defined based on asymptotic properties. In practice, it depends on the specific replication of the exogenous shock(s) used for the resolution process. Typically, this problem is reduced when a sufficiently long replication is considered. In this paper, we suggest an alternative approach which consists of using several, shorter replications. A centrality measure (the median) is used then to discriminate among the different solutions using two different criteria, which differ in the information used. On the one hand, the distance to the vector composed by median values of PEA coefficients is minimized. On the other hand, distances to the median impulse response is minimized. Finally, we explore the impact of considering alternative approaches in an empirical illustration

Fertility as a variable for tackling the demographic challenge, is having children in Spain an unfulfilled desire?

In this article, we examine the maternity gap for the case of Spain. This is a phenomenon of great social and economic relevance that presents challenges for analysis, including adequate delimitation of the concept and the acquisition of quality quantitative data that enables dependable empirical measurement. We have drawn data from the three waves of the Fertility Survey conducted by Spain’s National Institute of Statistics (1985, 1999, and 2018) and find that, while the desire for maternity in Spain is not relatively low, the number of actual births is significantly lower. First, we propose alternative theoretical approaches that contribute to a comprehensive vision of this complex phenomenon. Next, we analyze the perceived barriers to maternity in Spain for each period, identifying the factors that influence them. Results indicate that women with higher levels of education are associated with larger gaps between the numbers of children desired and actual children, and that the maintenance of stable relationships and access to good health services contribute to reductions in the maternity gap. Finally, in a differentiated analysis for men and women using data collected in the 2018 wave, we find that the main results are similar for the two sexes, although distinct profiles do emerge depending on the professional status of a woman (when unemployed or inactive) and with respect to the importance of declared reasons for not having children, such as work and reconciliation with maternity (by women) and lacking a suitable partner (by men).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mathematical Visions: The Pursuit of Geometry in Victorian England (Book Review)

Reviewed Title: Joan L. Richards. Mathematical Visions: The Pursuit of Geometry in Victorian England. xiii + 266 pp., illus., figs., bibl., index. Boston/New York: Academic Press, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988

Is there a signalling role for public wages? : evidence for the euro area based on macro data

Do public sector wages exert presures on private sector wages, or has private sector a leadership role in wage setting?. This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity, institutions) for the main euro area economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the periods 1980-2007 and 1991-2007. It exploits avilable quarterly information not yet used in the literature, and combine different data sources in the framework of mixedfrecuencies time series models. The quarterly frequency of our data allows us to check the existence of strong evidence of public wages’ leadership, either in conjunction with bidirectional links from the private sector (Germany and Spain) or pure public wage leadership (France in the sample 1991-2007, Italy for within-the-year linkages)

A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance

En este trabajo presentamos una herramienta para el seguimiento en tiempo real de la ejecución presupuestaria de las Administraciones Públicas en España. La herramienta incorpora un conjunto amplio de modelos estadísticos, con diferentes niveles de agregación entre partidas presupuestarias y subsectores de las Administraciones Públicas, que permiten procesar de manera efi ciente la sustancial información mensual y trimestral publicada actualmente por las autoridades estadísticas en España. La principal utilidad de la herramienta es complementar el análisis habitualmente realizado para detectar de manera anticipada posibles riesgos de desviación con respecto a los objetivos fi scales ofi cialesIn this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system of use for the real-time monitoring of the Spanish government’s borrowing requirement. Spain has been at the centre of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures in meeting public defi cit targets. The system comprises a suite of models, with different levels of disaggregation (bottom-up vs top-downgeneral government vs sub-sectors), which are suitable for the automatic processing of the large amount of monthly/quarterly fi scal data currently published by the Spanish statistical authorities. Our tools are instrumental in the ex-ante detection of risks to offi cial projections, and can thus help reduce the ex-post reputational costs of budgetary slippage. On the basis of our results, we discuss how offi cial monitoring bodies could expand, on one hand, their toolkit to evaluate regular adherence to targets (moving beyond a legalistic approach) and, on the other, their communication policies as regards sources of risks to (ex-ante) compliance with budgetary target

Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path

To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, missing a relevant piece of economic drivers. We analyse jointly these interdependencies by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate ”causality path” excluding redundant relationships. Thus, we combine recent developments introduced to estimate the Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels and graphical models searching iteratively for the existing dependencies between a multivariate set of information. Our results provide novel empirical evidence suggesting that monetary policy variables play a leading role in the resulting complex economic system. Furthermore, we do find evidence supporting the role of Total Expenditure as a driver of fiscal policy.Sánchez-Fuentes acknowledges the financial support of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (project PID2019-105517RB-I00)

Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path.

To assess the ultimate causal flow between monetary policy indicators, fiscal sustainability and economic growth has been deeply studied in the literature. However, this issue is still open to discussion due to mixed results and caveats/limitations of existing studies. Importantly, previous analyses mostly focus on bivariate/trivariate systems, missing a relevant piece of economic drivers. We analyze jointly these interdependencies by applying multivariate Granger Causality and determining an ultimate "causality path" excluding redundant relationships. Thus, we combine recent developments introduced to estimate the Granger causality procedure based on Meta-analysis in heterogeneous mixed panels and graphical models searching iteratively for the existing dependencies between a multivariate set of information. Our results provide novel empirical evidence suggesting that monetary policy variables play a leading role in the resulting complex economic system. Furthermore, we do find evidence supporting the role of Total Expenditure as a driver of fiscal policy.Instituto Complutense de Estudios InternacionalesTRUEMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO)inpres

Flood Risk Assessment in Housing under an Urban Development Scheme Simulating Water Flow in Plains

Floods are increasingly occurring around the world more often, this implies analysing the risks connected to both human health and the environment, and to infrastructure and properties. The objective is to establish areas susceptible to flooding and their impact on the population through the effects on the unit of analysis “housing”. To simulate the floods and map the affected areas, the FluBiDi 2D model was used. Two conditions for one urban zone analysed within the Mexico Valley were compared: (a) with the current hydraulic infrastructure and (b) with the application of rectification of channels. The available information was the discharge getting into the catchment and the total of homes in 2015. Projections for 20-year and 50-year planning horizon were considered, and for the 50 years, an evaluation of a non-structural measure was applied. Results show that under the current infrastructure, the flood simulated had a flow depth of 20 cm, decreasing to 5 cm average with rectification of channels, and a decrement of 45% of the cost of housing risk. Applying the both structural and non-structural measures, the cost of vulnerable housing was reduced until 94%, thus, this a trustworthy tool for decision-making in urban developments

Una Síntesis cuantitativa del cumplimiento de la Agenda 2030 de la Unión Europea

La Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible, aprobada en 2015 por la ONU, marca muchas de las decisiones políticas actuales. Esta Agenda es la sucesora de los Objetivos de Desarrollo del Milenio, iniciados en el año 2000. A través de de la misma, los países se acogen a unos compromisos que conciernen a acciones dirigidas a distintos objetivos. Para medir el desempeño en estos objetivos la ONU ha fijado 169 metas y 232 indicadores. Paralelamente a la creación de objetivos globales por parte de la ONU, Eurostat ha establecido 100 indicadores (muchos de ellos iguales o parecidos) centrados en los países de la Unión Europea para monitorizar la Agenda 2030. Este trabajo aspira a realizar un análisis de las fortalezas y debilidades de los países de la Unión Europea respecto a los objetivos planteados, analizando también así la convergencia o divergencia existente entre ellos. Para ello, se construyen índices sintéticos parciales para cada objetivo, combinando la información existente para los indicadores recogidos en Eurostat. En un segundo paso, estos índices parciales se combinan estos en un índice sintético dirigido a proporcionar una visión global de la situación (relativa) de cada país de la Unión Europea

Inequality and poverty in the European Union: In search of lost dynamics

This paper analyses the relationships between income inequality, monetary poverty and economic growth for a sample of 30 European economies over the period 2004-2020. To do so, we adopt a novel approach, based on a dynamic analysis that takes into account the variability that can occur in the evolution of these relationships over the period analysed. The proposed panel-VAR model allows us to perform a Granger causality analysis between the variables mentioned. In a second stage, we complete this analysis with the application of the iterative PC algorithm that allows us to interpret the results of the model by defining the corresponding causal graphs. For the empirical analysis we use micro-data from the EU-SILC database for the period 2004-2020. The results obtained show that, for the set of economies analysed, inequality has a positive effect on poverty. Moreover, we also find that this dynamic is reversed, with a double positive causality between these variables. In addition, we do not find evidence of a poverty or inequality reducing effect of economic growth. However, we find that these results differ across countries, depending on the type of welfare state in place