Net precipitation over the Baltic Sea for one year using several methods

Precipitation and evaporation over the Baltic Sea are calculated for a one-year period from September 1998 to August 1999 by four different tools, the two atmospheric regional models HIRLAM and REMO, the oceanographic model PROBE-Baltic in combination with the SMHI (1 × 1)° database and Interpolated Fields, based essentially on ship measurements. The investigated period is slightly warmer and wetter than the climatological mean. Correlation coefficients of the differently calculated latent heat fluxes vary between 0.81 (HIRLAM and REMO) and 0.56 (SMHI/PROBE-Baltic and Interpolated Fields), while the correlation coefficients between model fluxes and measured fluxes range from 0.61 and 0.78. Deviations of simulated and interpolated monthly precipitation over the Baltic Sea are less than ±5 mm in the southern Baltic and up to 20 mm near the Finnish coast for the one-year period. The methods simulate the annual cycle of precipitation and evaporation of the Baltic Proper in a similar manner with a broad maximum of net precipitation in spring and early summer and a minimum in late summer. The annual averages of net precipitation of the Baltic Proper range from 57 mm (REMO) to 262 mm (HIRLAM) and for the Baltic Sea from 96 mm (SMHI/PROBE-Baltic) to 209 mm (HIRLAM). This range is considered to give the uncertainty of present-day determination of the net precipitation over the Baltic Sea

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.Peer reviewe

Regional precipitation estimations in Central America using the Weather Research and Forecast model

Using the regional climate model WRF, and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project data as boundary and initial conditions. regional precipitation for Central America was estimated by means of the dynamical downscaling technique for two selected periods: January 2000 and September 2007. Four-nested domains, d01, d02. d03 and d04 with a grid-resolution of 90 km, 30 km, 10 km. and 3.3 km respectively. were configured over this region. The runs were reinitialized every 5 days with 6 h of spin-up time for adjustment of the model. A total of eight experiments (four per month) were tested in order to study: a) two important Cumulus Parameterization Schemes (CPS): Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD); and b) the physical interaction between nested domains (one- and two-way nesting), during each simulated month. The modeled precipitation was in agreement with observations for January 2000, and also captured the mean climate features of rainfall concerning magnitude, and spatial distribution, such as the particular precipitation contrast between the Pacific and the Caribbean coast. Outputs of the coarse domains (d01, d02, and d03) for September 2007 revealed differences between experiments within the domains when a visual comparison of the spatial distribution was made. However, for the inner grid (d04), all the experiments, showed a similar spatial distribution and magnitude estimation, mainly in those runs using one-way nesting configuration. The results for the month of September differed substantially with the observations, which could be related to associated deficiencies in the boundary condition that do not reproduce well the transition periods from warm to cold ENSO episodes for the selected periods of study. In all the experiments, the KF scheme calculated more precipitation than the GD scheme and it was associated to the ability of the GD scheme to reproduce spotty but intense rainfall, and apparently, this scheme was reluctant to activate, showing frequent events of low intensity rain. However, when rainfall did develop, it was very intense. Also, the time series did not replicate specific precipitation events. Thus, the 5-days integration period used in this study was not enough to reproduce short-period precipitation events. Finally, physical interaction issues between the nested domains were reflected in discontinuities in the precipitation field, which have been associated with mass field adjustment in the CPS

Regional precipitation estimations in Central America using the Weather Research and Forecast model

Using the regional climate model WRF, and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project data as boundary and initial conditions. regional precipitation for Central America was estimated by means of the dynamical downscaling technique for two selected periods: January 2000 and September 2007. Four-nested domains, d01, d02. d03 and d04 with a grid-resolution of 90 km, 30 km, 10 km. and 3.3 km respectively. were configured over this region. The runs were reinitialized every 5 days with 6 h of spin-up time for adjustment of the model. A total of eight experiments (four per month) were tested in order to study: a) two important Cumulus Parameterization Schemes (CPS): Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Grell-Devenyi (GD); and b) the physical interaction between nested domains (one- and two-way nesting), during each simulated month. The modeled precipitation was in agreement with observations for January 2000, and also captured the mean climate features of rainfall concerning magnitude, and spatial distribution, such as the particular precipitation contrast between the Pacific and the Caribbean coast. Outputs of the coarse domains (d01, d02, and d03) for September 2007 revealed differences between experiments within the domains when a visual comparison of the spatial distribution was made. However, for the inner grid (d04), all the experiments, showed a similar spatial distribution and magnitude estimation, mainly in those runs using one-way nesting configuration. The results for the month of September differed substantially with the observations, which could be related to associated deficiencies in the boundary condition that do not reproduce well the transition periods from warm to cold ENSO episodes for the selected periods of study. In all the experiments, the KF scheme calculated more precipitation than the GD scheme and it was associated to the ability of the GD scheme to reproduce spotty but intense rainfall, and apparently, this scheme was reluctant to activate, showing frequent events of low intensity rain. However, when rainfall did develop, it was very intense. Also, the time series did not replicate specific precipitation events. Thus, the 5-days integration period used in this study was not enough to reproduce short-period precipitation events. Finally, physical interaction issues between the nested domains were reflected in discontinuities in the precipitation field, which have been associated with mass field adjustment in the CPS

Progress in physical oceanography of the Baltic Sea during the 2003-2014 period

We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere-land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003-2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. The importance of surface waves in air-sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. The Baltic Sea's various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. Modelling of the Baltic Sea-North Sea system, including the development of coupled land-sea-atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water-sediment interactions are needed. There is also a need for new climate projections and simulations with improved atmospheric and oceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context.

Precipitation and Evaporation Budgets over the Baltic Proper: Observations and Modelling

Precipitation and evaporation budgets over the Baltic Sea were studied in a concerted project called PEP in BALTEX (Pilot study of Evaporation and Precipitation in the Baltic Sea), combining extensive field measurements and modelling efforts. Eddy-correlation-measurements of turbulent heat flux were made on a semi-continuous basis for a 12 month period at four well-exposed coastal sites in the Baltic Proper (the main basin of the Baltic Sea). Precipitation was measured at land-based sites with standard gauges and on four merchant ships travelling between Germany and Finland with the aid of specially designed ship rain gauges (SRGs). The evaporation and precipitation regime of the Baltic Sea was modelled for a 12 month period by applying a wide range of numerical models: the operational atmospheric High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM, Swedish and Finnish versions), the German atmospheric REgional-scale MOdel, REMO, the operational German Europe Model (only precipitation), the oceanographic model PROBE-Baltic, and two models that use interpolation of ground-based data, the Swedish MESAN model of SMHI and a German model of IFM-GEOMAR Kiel. Modelled precipitation was compared with SRG measurements on board the ships. A reasonable correlation was obtained, but the regional-scale models and MESAN gave some 20% higher precipitation over the sea than is measured. Bulk parameterisation schemes for evaporation were evaluated against measurements. A constant value of C HN and C EN with wind speed, underestimated large fluxes of both sensible and latent heat flux. The limited area models do not resolve the influence of the height of the marine boundary layer in coastal zones and the entrainment (on the surface fluxes), which may explain the observed low correlations between modelled and measured latent heat fluxes. Estimates of evaporation, E, and precipitation, P, for the entire Baltic Proper were made with several models for a 12 month period. While the annual variation was well represented by all predictions, there are still important differences in the annual means. Evaporation ranges from 509 to 625 mm year−1 and precipitation between 624 and 805 mm year−1 for this particular 12 month period. Taking the results of model verification from the present study into account, the best estimate of P–E is about 100 ± 50 mm for this particular 12 month period. But the annual mean of P–E varies considerably from year to year. This is reflected in simulations with the PROBE-Baltic model for an 18 year period, which gave 95 mm year−1 for the 12 month period studied here and 32 mm year−1 as an average for 18 years