Estimating interregional trade flows in Andalusia (Spain)

Perhaps, one of the most relevant issues in constructing regional input-output tables is the estimation of interregional trade flows. Hence, the Regional Statistical Office of Andalusia (Spain) is promoting new research on survey-based estimates of trade flows between the own region and the rest of Spain. Especially, survey approach has been seen to result more reliable outcomes (Eding & Nijmeijer, 1998) than non-survey constructs. This paper will focus on survey design features, sample methods, treatment of sampling and non-sampling errors and others aspects concerning data collection and processing in the case of Andalusia (Spain).

Linking cross-impact probabilistic scenarios to input-output models

Forecast, World Economy;Input-Output Models

The choice of type of input-output table revisited: moving towards the use of supply-use tables in impact analysis

The construction of symmetric input-output tables (SIOTs) is a controversial issue as regards the choice of model to construct both product-by-product and industry-by-industry SIOTs, especially the former ones. However, there has been little attention paid so far by the UN and the Eurostat Systems of National Accounts on the choice of type of SIOT to carry out impact analyses let alone other input-output applications. Concerning the price and quantity models in input-output analysis, this paper identifies severe problems in the correct interpretation of the meaning of their results and proposes the use of supply and use tables instead of SIOTs to solve these problems.JRC.J.6-Sustainable production and consumptio

The problem of negatives in input-output analysis: a review of the solutions

The main models to construct technical coefficients are the industry technology model and the commodity technology model. The former yields nonnegative coefficients and the latter fulfills nice theoretical properties, such as price invariance. Although the models are very different, this paper presents a flexible formula that encompasses both of them. Various solutions to the problem of negatives of the commodity technology model-including replacements by industry technology based coefficients-are reviewed in our framework.Input-output analysis; technical coefficients; use and make matrices

How to Estimate Unbiased and Consistent input-output Multipliers on the Basis of use and Make Matrices

In the literature, the construction of technical coefficients is linked to flow data (use and make matrices), but stochastics are imposed on the coefficients when multipliers are calculated, by means of the Leontief inverse. Due the nonlinearity of this operation, the multiplier estimates are biased (it is generally argued that the Leontief inverse underestimates input-output multipliers). By going back to the flow data, this paper provides unbiased and consistent employment and output multipliers estimates for the Andalusian economy. Rectangular use and make matrices are accommodated and technical coefficients, the Leontief inverse, and associated problems (such as negative coefficients) are circumvented.Stochastic input-output analysis, employment multipliers, output multipliers, use and make matrices.

A note on the use of supply-use tables in impact analyses

Little attention has so far been paid to the problems inherent in interpreting the meaning of results from standard impact analyses using symmetric input-output tables. Impacts as well as drivers of these impacts must be either of the product type or of the industry type. Interestingly, since supply-use tables distinguish products and industries, they can cope with product impacts driven by changes in industries, and vice versa. This paper contributes in two ways. Firstly, the demanddriven Leontief quantity model, both for industry-by-industry as well as for product-by-product tables, is formalised on the basis of supply-use tables, thus leading to impact multipliers, both for industries and products. Secondly, we demonstrate how the supply-use formulation can improve the incorporation of disparate satellite data into input-output models, by offering both industry and product representation. Supply-use blocks can accept any mix of industry and product satellite data, as long as these are not overlapping

A use-side trade margins matrix for the Andalusian economy

According to the National Accounting Systems proposed by United Nations (1993) and Eurostat (1996), use and make (or supply) matrices should be measured before goods and services are conveyed to the markets (basic values). Actually, the make table is defined in basic values (excluding trade and transport margins and net commodity taxes) whereas the use table is in purchasers' values (including them). This paper shows how these margins and taxes can be removed from the use table with the purpose of entering both of them in the so-called material balance equation. With respect to trade margins, our approach is based on the use-side procedure from the ESA-95 Input-Output Manual (Eurostat, 2002) and is also being applied to the forthcoming 2000 Andalusian Input-Output Framework.Input-output analysis, use and make matrices, trade margins, National Accounts

Factors affecting entrepreneurial intention levels

Entrepreneurship is becoming a very relevant instrument to promote economic growth and development in different regional and national economies. However, social scientists have not still agreed on the determinants of the decision to become an entrepreneur. Therefore, there is some concern that policies may not be sufficiently efficient in achieving this objective. From a psychological point of view, the intention to become an entrepreneur has been described as the single best predictor of actual behaviour (Ajzen, 1991; Kolvereid, 1996). Hence, some studies have started to analyse the entrepreneurial intention and its determinants (Krueger et al., 2000) but however, methodologies and research instruments used so far differ widely. Then, the availability of a validated instrument to measure abilities, attitudes and intentions towards entrepreneurship could be of much help. In this paper, we use an Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ), which has been recently validated, to measure entrepreneurial intentions in a sample of students from different Spanish universities. After a brief description of the characteristics and psychometric properties of the EIQ, most important results are discussed. In particular, we pay attention to the influence of different personal and family variables on the entrepreneurial intention level. These variables could be considered as belonging to the institutional environment of each territory. Differences in institutions -in a broad sense- may be a very relevant factor to explain divergent entrepreneurial activity levels. Results show how these external variables affect intention and, as a result actual entrepreneurial behaviour.

Modelos Input-Output y análisis probabilístico de impacto cruzado mediante escenarios

Desde la contribución pionera de W. Leontief en su discurso de la entrega de los premios Nobel en 1973 (Leontief, 1974), los modelos input-output se vienen asociando con modelos a nivel mundial que estiman los impactos medioambientales del crecimiento económico. Más tarde, en el proyecto de investigación de las Naciones Unidas en el que participó W. Leontief junto con Carter y Petri (Leontief, Carter y Petri, 1977) también introdujo el concepto de escenarios entendiendo como tales los posibles desarrollos futuros de la economía mundial y utilizando modelos input-output para evaluar los impactos medioambientales y sus consecuencias económicas en términos cuantitativos. Sin embargo, si el objetivo principal de la ciencia social consiste en mejorar los procesos de toma de decisiones relacionadas con aspectos sociales, necesitamos otros métodos que integren las opiniones de expertos sobre sistemas globales a través del conocimiento del modo de funcionar de unos subsistemas dados de la misma realidad. En este sentido, el análisis de impacto cruzado se convierte en un método embriónico de potencial interés. Este artículo se centra en diseñar y ofrecer una incipiente posibilidad de vincular los métodos de análisis de impacto cruzado para escenarios probabilísticos junto con un modelo input-output mundial de contabilidad social (incluyendo asimismo aspectos medioambientales). Sus principales objetivos son los de mejorar los procesos de toma de decisiones a nivel mundial hacia un desarrollo sostenible, así como hacia otros aspectos situados en el corazón de las preocupaciones de la sociedad en general, siendo capaz de adelantarse a los futuros sucesos y consecuencias de la actividad humana sobre la economía global y la sociedad en su conjunto. _______________________________________Since the pioneering contribution by W. Leontief in his 1973 Nobel Prize lecture (Leontief, 1974) input-output models have been often associated to world models attempting to estimate global environment impacts of economic growth. Leontief, Carter and Petri (1977) introduced also the concept of scenarios regarding possible future developments of the world economy, and used their input-output models to quantify the environmental impacts and related economic consequences. However, if a major objective of social science is to improve decision-making processes related to social issues, we need methods for integrating these expert opinions about the global systems with the knowledge of the functioning of given subsystems of the same reality. In this sense, cross-impact analysis becomes an embryonic method of potential interest. This paper is concentrated on the possibility of linking cross-impact methods for probabilistic scenarios with world social accounting models including environmental issues, with the main purposes of improving global decision-making processes towards sustainable development and other issues that are placed at the centre of society’s concerns, and of being capable to advance future events and future impacts of human activity on the global economy and society at large

The choice of type of input-output table revisited : moving towards the use of supply-use tables in impact analysis

The construction of symmetric input-output tables (SIOTs) is a controversial issue as regards the choice of model to construct both product-by-product and industry-by-industry SIOTs, especially the former ones. However, there has been little attention paid so far by the UN and the Eurostat Systems of National Accounts on the choice of type of SIOT to carry out impact analyses let alone other input-output applications. Concerning the price and quantity models in input-output analysis, this paper identifies severe problems in the correct interpretation of the meaning of their results and proposes the use of supply and use tables instead of SIOTs to solve these problems