Essays on climate change, wheat production, and adaptation strategies in Pakistan

Doctor of PhilosophyDepartment of Agricultural EconomicsAndrew P BarkleyPakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change and sustainable growth in its wheat supply holds one key to food security. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between weather and wheat production in Pakistan and assess the adaptation possibility. The first paper, using district-level agricultural data spanning 37 years and covering more than 80% of wheat production in the country, provides estimates of the overall and intra-seasonal impacts of extreme temperature exposure. It finds that the impact of temperature extremes varies across different seasons such that the freezing temperatures in the fall season and warming of the winter season are found to be the biggest drivers of yield loss, with 16.7% and 8.8% yield reduction respectively. The future warming scenarios suggest overall mild gains in wheat yields. The second paper utilizes a richer farm-level dataset with 33,621 plot-year observations to estimate the warming impacts across irrigation status and explore heterogeneities across wheat varieties. It finds that warming temperatures are particularly harmful in rainfed conditions and irrigation provides significant protection against heat stress. estimating a 70% smaller yield reduction. Moreover, the paper examines the heterogeneity of temperature effects across wheat varieties and finds that newer varieties are associated with higher yields and more heat resistance. Further, variety selection is also found to have significant potential in mitigating the adverse impact of warming temperatures. The research aims to inform future research on the relationship between weather and wheat yields in Pakistan by providing evidence of the impact of temperature on wheat yields and measuring the effectiveness of possible adaptation measures

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

CellMap: An Automated Multielectrode Array Cell Culture Analysis System Based on Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy

The objective of this research is to develop fundamental understanding of cell-substrate (CS) and cell-cell (CC) interactions in the culture space for time evolving cell cultures. Space resolved CC and CS interactions are important indicators of cell-density distribution, localized cellular behavior, and multiple cell-layers which are differentiators of normal and abnormal cell behavior. In this research, CS and CC interactions and the variations therein due to a) Cell growth, 2) cell-drug interaction, and 3) effect of Cytotoxin were studied using multielectrode, multi-frequency Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS). Contemporary impedance based methods sense either CC or CS interaction as a space averaged macroscopic quantity. A major contribution of this research is that, both CC and CS interactions are recorded and analyzed with spatio-temporal resolution. This research led to the development of an automated cell culture monitoring system, namely, CellMap. A planar eight electrode sensor was fabricated on a glass substrate and interfaced with a switching circuit. The switching circuit sequentially selects consecutive electrodes upon input of a 5V trigger pulse which is generated by the frequency response analyzer at the end of each frequency scan, thereby facilitating automated switching and recording of multielectrode dataset. Calibration standards and protocols were developed to null the channel parasitics of individual channels. A set of eight impedance measurements for eight electrodes constitutes a frame . Frames are recorded at regular time intervals over the desired course of time. Impedance mapping of adhesion, spreading, motility and detachment of OvCa429 ovarian cancer cells was performed over a period of 70 hours. The cell-layer resistance, which indicates cell-cell contact, increased as a function of time until confluence, and decreased thereafter due to cell death and detachment. This was also confirmed by optical microscopy observations. Similarly, the cell layer Constant Phase Element (CPE) parameters, which were found to correlate well with cell density distribution, also increased as a function of time until confluence and decreased thereafter. Additionally, the cell-growth mapping revealed that the CellMap system is able to resolve non-uniform cell distributions in the culture space, which may be useful in differentiating between normal and pathological cells

Impedance spectroscopy-based cellular analysis device

An electrical impedance sensing device which integrates multielectrode automated impedance spectroscopy capability with automatic parameter extraction and data analysis to create an automated cell behavior monitoring system. The device comprises radial electrodes and an out-of-plane counter electrode. Quantitative impedance data provided information on cell adhesion, spreading, proliferation and detachment due to cell cycle processes as well as cell-drug interaction, with spatio-temporal resolution. The resulting dataset is processed for impedance distribution and used to characterize cellular motion, morphology, electrochemical and dielectric properties. Also, a method is described for studying cell-cell and cell-matrix interactions, determining electrical characteristics of cell layers, and identifying specific impedance parameters for cancer screening, drug screening, bacterial growth monitoring, organ transplant compatibility, and cell-drug interaction among other applications

Wet etching process

The present invention illustrates a bulk silicon etching technique that yields straight sidewalls, through wafer structures in very short times using standard silicon wet etching techniques. The method of the present invention employs selective porous silicon formation and dissolution to create high aspect ratio structures with straight sidewalls for through wafer MEMS processing

3D numerical simulation of a Coulter counter array with analysis of electrokinetic forces

Coulter counters have played an important role in biological cell assays since their introduction decades ago. Several types of high throughput micro-Coulter counters based on lab-on-chip devices have been commercialized recently. In this paper, we propose a highly integrated micro-Coulter counter array working under low DC voltage. The real-time electrical current change, including the pulse amplitude and width, of the micro-Coulter counter with novel structure is systematically investigated numerically. The major types of forces exerted on the particle in the micro-Coulter counter, including hydrodynamic force and electrokinetic force are quantitatively analyzed. The simulation in this study shows the pulse profile, such as width and amplitude, is affected by both particle size and the flow condition. The special cases of multiple particle aggregation and cross-talk between neighboring channels are also considered for their effects on the electric current pulses. This simulation provides critical insight and guidance for developing next new generations of micro-Coulter counter

Wet etching process

The present invention illustrates a bulk silicon etching technique that yields straight sidewalls, through wafer structures in very short times using standard silicon wet etching techniques. The method of the present invention employs selective porous silicon formation and dissolution to create high aspect ratio structures with straight sidewalls for through wafer MEMS processing

Size based sorting and patterning of microbeads by evaporation driven flow in a 3D micro-traps array

We present a three-dimensional (3D) micro-traps array for size selective sorting and patterning of microbeads via evaporation-driven capillary flow. The interconnected micro-traps array was manufactured by silicon micromachining. Microliters of aqueous solution containing particle mixtures of different sized (0.2 to 20 μm diameter) beads were dispensed onto the micro-traps substrate. The smaller particles spontaneously wicked towards the periphery of the chip, while the larger beads were orderly docked within the micro-traps array.ASTAR (Agency for Sci., Tech. and Research, S’pore

Rapid quantification of live cell receptors using bioluminescence in a flow-based microfluidic device

10.1002/smll.201401674Small118943-95