Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture-recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5-10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19-1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density - rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOAS610 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Spatial capture–recapture analysis of artificial cover board survey data reveals small scale spatial variation in slow-worm Anguis fragilis density

Vague and/or ad hoc definitions of the area sampled in monitoring efforts are common, and estimates of ecological state variables (e.g. distribution and abundance) can be sensitive to such specifications. The uncertainty in population metrics due to data deficiencies, vague definitions of space and lack of standardized protocols is a major challenge for monitoring, managing and conserving amphibian and reptile populations globally. This is especially true for the slow-worm (Anguis fragilis), a cryptic and fossorial legless lizard; uncertainty about spatial variation in density has hindered conservation efforts (e.g. in translocation projects). Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) methods can be used to estimate density while simultaneously and explicitly accounting for space and individual movement. We use SCR to analyse mark–recapture data of the slow-worm that were collected using artificial cover objects (ACO). Detectability varied among ACO grids and through the season. Estimates of slow-worm density varied across ACO grids (13, 45 and 46 individuals ha−1, respectively). The estimated 95% home range size of slow-worms was 0.38 ha. Our estimates provide valuable information about slow-worm spatial ecology that can be used to inform future conservation management

Counting Bears, P’s And Q’s: An Efficient Sample Design for a Spatial Capture Recapture Hair Snag Study of Grizzly Bears

Accurate assessment of abundance can be expensive and managers often seek to minimize costs. Because spatial capture recapture (SCR) methods explicitly account for variation in trap effort in space and time and permit the use of covariates to explain abundance, substantial flexibility in design and thus reduction in costs may be possible. Estimates of grizzly bear (Usus arctos) densities and abundances in 4 management units in Alberta were very low  (superpopulation n =  47-133) in the latest studies occurring from 2004-2008. Since these first provincial population estimates were obtained, management, landscape, and habitat conditions have changed. Managers would like updated abundance information but also seek to reduce the costs of acquiring these data. We assessed 1) the behavior of SCR models across several general sample designs and 2) whether we could eliminate sampling in helicopter-access-only areas in the Yellowhead management unit while maintaining accurate estimates. We used a combination of retrospective subsampling of existing data from a 2004 sampling effort and simulations to evaluate several designs. Placing sampling arrays in areas with high densities of bears decreased variance, while the fine-scale configuration of traps did not greatly influence estimates. Simulations of designs for Alberta with more intensive sampling of only the areas accessible by road and no sampling of more expensive helicopter-access-only areas provided robust estimates with little loss in precision. We will describe the framework and assumptions of SCR models with covariates for abundance in comparison with traditional capture recapture models

The diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance spectroscopy and enhanced magnetic resonance imaging techniques in aiding the localisation of prostate abnormalities for biopsy : a systematic review and economic evaluation

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Marketing a tourism industry in late stage decline: The case of the Isle of Man

Qualitative interviews in the Isle of Man uncovered local perceptions of a tourism industry in late stage decline. Social impacts of decline are pronounced including facilities loss, cultural changes and a heightening of perceived peripherality: which taken together undermine local identity. Tourists are welcomed as they help to affirm the pride residents have in their island in creating a more active atmosphere, provide social interaction opportunities and to combat negative stereotyping. Thus findings emphasise the diverse, unique and persistent benefits of tourism in the Isle of Man, despite its decline. Destination marketing recommendations are therefore made to better address the experiences and desires of communities experiencing decline

Balancing precision and risk: Should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against those risks. The analysis framework presented here will be useful for other species exhibiting heterogeneity by detection method

Influence of thickening of the inner skull table on intracranial volume measurement in older people

INTRODUCTION: It is generally assumed that intracranial volume (ICV) remains constant after peaking in early adulthood. Thus ICV is used as a ‘proxy’ for original brain size when trying to estimate brain atrophy in older people in neuroimaging studies. However, physiological changes in the skull, such as thickening of the frontal inner table, are relatively common in older age and will reduce ICV. The potential influence that inner table skull thickening may have on ICV measurement in old age has yet to be investigated. METHODS: We selected 60 (31 males, 29 females) representative older adults aged 71.1–74.3 years from a community-dwelling ageing cohort, the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936. A semi-automatically derived current ICV measurement obtained from high resolution T1-weighted volume scans was compared to the estimated original ICV by excluding inner skull table thickening using expert manual image processing. RESULTS: Inner table skull thickening reduced ICV from an estimated original 1480.0 ml to a current 1409.1 ml, a median decrease of 7.3% (Z = − 6.334; p < 0.001), and this reduction was more prominent in women than men (median decrease 114.6 vs. 101.9 ml respectively). This led to potential significant underestimations of brain atrophy in this sample by 5.3% (p < 0.001) and obscured potential gender differences. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of skull thickening are important to consider when conducting research in ageing, as they can obscure gender differences and result in underestimation of brain atrophy. Research into reliable methods of determining the estimated original ICV is required for research into brain ageing

Quantifying the contribution of immigration to population dynamics : a review of methods, evidence and perspectives in birds and mammals

© 2019 Cambridge Philosophical Society.Peer reviewedPostprin

A different appetite for sovereignty? Independence movements in subnational island jurisdictions

Local autonomy in a subnational jurisdiction is more likely to be gained, secured or enhanced where there are palpable movements or political parties agitating for independence in these smaller territories. A closer look at the fortunes, operations and dynamics of independence parties from subnational island jurisdictions can offer some interesting insights on the appetite for sovereignty and independence, but also the lack thereof, in the twenty-first century.peer-reviewe