Effects of Explicit Convection on Future Projections of Mesoscale Circulations, Rainfall, and Rainfall Extremes over Eastern Africa

Eastern Africa’s fast-growing population is vulnerable to changing rainfall and extremes. Using the first pan-African climate change simulations that explicitly model the rainfall-generating convection, we investigate both the climate change response of key mesoscale drivers of eastern African rainfall, such as sea and lake breezes, and the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall responses. The explicit model shows widespread increases at the end of the century in mean (~40%) and extreme (~50%) rain rates, whereas the sign of changes in rainfall frequency has large spatial heterogeneity (from −50% to over +90%). In comparison, an equivalent parameterized simulation has greater moisture convergence and total rainfall increase over the eastern Congo and less over eastern Africa. The parameterized model also does not capture 1) the large heterogeneity of changes in rain frequency; 2) the widespread and large increases in extreme rainfall, which result from increased rainfall per humidity change; and 3) the response of rainfall to the changing sea breeze, even though the sea-breeze change is captured. Consequently, previous rainfall projections are likely inadequate for informing many climate-sensitive decisions—for example, for infrastructure in coastal cities. We consider the physics revealed here and its implications to be relevant for many other vulnerable tropical regions, especially those with coastal convection

Lime stabilisation for earthworks: a UK perspective

Lime stabilisation is a versatile technique applied during earthworks operations. Modern soil recycling units are much more efficient at pulverising fill material and intermixing the added binder/water than machinery available 20 years ago. While supplier innovation adds flexibility to the site working method, specifications have not been sufficiently updated to permit optimal application. This review paper details the physico-chemical changes instigated through the lime-clay soil reaction, updating previous reviews. It aims to assist scientific debate, current practitioners and future specification changes. For example, the application of the minimum 24 h mellowing periods (mandatory to UK specifications) with high reactivity, quicklime powders is concluded to cause increased air voids in the compacted fill. Increased air voids are associated with reduced long-term strength and potential volume change from water ingress, which is of particular concern for sulfate swelling. Shorter mellowing periods and/or use of hydrated lime may lesson this issue; however, a 'one size fits all' approach is discouraged in preference to site-specific methodologies refined to suit the fill material and project requirements. The discussion also summarises working methods which may lower the risk of sulfate swell and defines areas requiring further practical research

Implications of improved representation of convection for the East Africa water budget using a convection-permitting model

The precipitation and diabatic heating resulting from moist convection make it a key component of the atmospheric water budget in the tropics. With convective parametrisation being a known source of uncertainty in global models, convection-permitting (CP) models are increasingly being used to improve understanding of regional climate. Here, a new 10-year CP simulation is used to study the characteristics of rainfall and atmospheric water budget for East Africa and the Lake Victoria basin. The explicit representation of convection leads to a widespread improvement in the intensities and diurnal cycle of rainfall when compared with a parametrised simulation. Differences in large-scale moisture fluxes lead to a shift in the mean rainfall pattern from the Congo to Lake Victoria basin in the CP simulation - highlighting the important connection between local changes in the representation of convection and larger scale dynamics and rainfall. Stronger lake-land contrasts in buoyancy in the CP model lead to a stronger nocturnal land breeze over Lake Victoria, increasing evaporation and moisture flux convergence (MFC), and likely unrealistically high rainfall. However, for the mountains east of the lake, the CP model produces a diurnal rainfall cycle much more similar to satellite estimates, which is related to differences in the timing of MFC. Results here demonstrate that, whilst care is needed regarding lake forcings, a CP approach offers a more realistic representation of several rainfall characteristics through a more physically-based realisation of the atmospheric dynamics around the complex topography of East Africa

Prolonged post-faint hypotension can be reversed by dynamic tension

A severe variant of vasovagal syncope, observed during tilt tests and blood donation has recently been termed “prolonged post-faint hypotension” (PPFH). A 49-year-old male with a life-long history of severe fainting attacks underwent head-up tilt for 20 min, and developed syncope 2 min after nitroglycerine spray. He was unconscious for 40 s and asystolic for 22 s. For the first 2 min of recovery, BP and HR remained low (65/45 mmHg and 40 beats/min) despite passive leg-raising. Blood pressure (and symptoms) only improved following active bilateral leg flexion and extension (“dynamic tension”). During PPFH, when vagal activity is extreme, patients may require central stimulation as well as correction of venous return

Representation of precipitation and top-of-atmosphere radiation in a multi-model convection-permitting ensemble for the Lake Victoria Basin (East-Africa)

The CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study ELVIC (climate Extremes in the Lake VICtoria basin) was recently established to investigate how extreme weather events will evolve in this region of the world and to provide improved information for the climate impact community. Here we assess the added value of the convection-permitting scale simulations on the representation of moist convective systems over and around Lake Victoria. With this aim, 10 year present-day model simulations were carried out with five regional climate models at both PARameterized (PAR) scales (12–25 km) and Convection-Permitting (CP) scales (2.5–4.5 km), with COSMO-CLM, RegCM, AROME, WRF and UKMO. Most substantial systematic improvements were found in metrics related to deep convection. For example, the timing of the daily maximum in precipitation is systematically delayed in CP compared to PAR models, thereby improving the agreement with observations. The large overestimation in the total number of rainy events is alleviated in the CP models. Systematic improvements were found in the diurnal cycle in Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiation and in some metrics for precipitation intensity. No unanimous improvement nor deterioration was found in the representation of the spatial distribution of total rainfall and the seasonal cycle when going to the CP scale. Furthermore, some substantial biases in TOA upward radiative fluxes remain. Generally our analysis indicates that the representation of the convective systems is strongly improved in CP compared to PAR models, giving confidence that the models are valuable tools for studying how extreme precipitation events may evolve in the future in the Lake Victoria basin and its surroundings

Degradation of metalaxyl and folpet by filamentous fungi isolated from Portuguese (Alentejo) vineyard soils

Degradation of xenobiotics by microbial populations is a potential method to enhance the effectiveness of ex situ or in situ bioremediation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of repeated metalaxyl and folpet treatments on soil microbial communities and to select soil fungal strains able to degrade these fungicides. Results showed enhanced degradation of metalaxyl and folpet in vineyards soils submitted to repeated treatments with these fungicides. Indeed, the greatest degradation ability was observed in vineyard soil samples submitted to greater numbers of treatments. Respiration activities, as determined in the presence of selective antibiotics in soil suspensions amended with metalaxyl and folpet, showed that the fungal population was the microbiota community most active in the degradation process. Batch cultures performed with a progressive increase of fungicide concentrations allowed the selection of five tolerant fungal strains: Penicillium sp. 1 and Penicillium sp. 2, mycelia sterila 1 and 3, and Rhizopus stolonifer. Among these strains, mycelium sterila 3 and R. stolonifer presented only in vineyard soils treated with repeated application of these fungicides and showed tolerance >1,000 mg l−1 against commercial formulations of metalaxyl (10 %) plus folpet (40 %). Using specific methods for inducing sporulation, mycelium sterila 3 was identified as Gongronella sp. Because this fungus is rare, it was compared using csM13-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with the two known species, Gongronella butleri and G. lacrispora. The high tolerance to metalaxyl and folpet shown by Gongronella sp. and R. stolonifer might be correlated with their degradation ability. Our results point out that selected strains have potential for the bioremediation of metalaxyl and folpet in polluted soil sites

California Men's Health Study (CMHS): a multiethnic cohort in a managed care setting

BACKGROUND: We established a male, multiethnic cohort primarily to study prostate cancer etiology and secondarily to study the etiologies of other cancer and non-cancer conditions. METHODS/DESIGN: Eligible participants were 45-to-69 year old males who were members of a large, prepaid health plan in California. Participants completed two surveys on-line or on paper in 2002 – 2003. Survey content included demographics; family, medical, and cancer screening history; sexuality and sexual development; lifestyle (diet, physical activity, and smoking); prescription and non-prescription drugs; and herbal supplements. We linked study data with clinical data, including laboratory, hospitalization, and cancer data, from electronic health plan files. We recruited 84,170 participants, approximately 40% from minority populations and over 5,000 who identified themselves as other than heterosexual. We observed a wide range of education (53% completed less than college) and income. PSA testing rates (75% overall) were highest among black participants. Body mass index (BMI) (median 27.2) was highest for blacks and Latinos and lowest for Asians, and showed 80.6% agreement with BMI from clinical data sources. The sensitivity and specificity can be assessed by comparing self-reported data, such as PSA testing, diabetes, and history of cancer, to health plan data. We anticipate that nearly 1,500 prostate cancer diagnoses will occur within five years of cohort inception. DISCUSSION: A wide variety of epidemiologic, health services, and outcomes research utilizing a rich array of electronic, biological, and clinical resources is possible within this multiethnic cohort. The California Men's Health Study and other cohorts nested within comprehensive health delivery systems can make important contributions in the area of men's health

HCV+ Hepatocytes Induce Human Regulatory CD4+ T Cells through the Production of TGF-β

Background: Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is remarkably efficient at establishing persistent infection and is associated with the development of chronic liver disease. Impaired T cell responses facilitate and maintain persistent HCV infection. Importantly, CD4 + regulatory T cells (Tregs) act by dampening antiviral T cell responses in HCV infection. The mechanism for induction and/or expansion of Tregs in HCV is unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings: HCV-expressing hepatocytes were used to determine if hepatocytes are able to induce Tregs. The infected liver environment was modeled by establishing the co-culture of the human hepatoma cell line, Huh7.5, containing the full-length genome of HCV genotype 1a (Huh7.5-FL) with activated CD4 + T cells. The production of IFN-c was diminished following co-culture with Huh7.5-FL as compared to controls. Notably, CD4 + T cells in contact with Huh7.5-FL expressed an increased level of the Treg markers, CD25, Foxp3, CTLA-4 and LAP, and were able to suppress the proliferation of effector T cells. Importantly, HCV + hepatocytes upregulated the production of TGF-b and blockade of TGF-b abrogated Treg phenotype and function. Conclusions/Significance: These results demonstrate that HCV infected hepatocytes are capable of directly inducing Tregs development and may contribute to impaired host T cell responses