The 2014 Victorian State Election

Victoria is earning a reputation for producing surprising election results. According to political commentators and the opinion polls, the 1999 election was expected to return the Coalition Government and the 2010 election was expected to return the Labor Government, yet neither did. Even though the polls had long placed Labor ahead of the Coalition, the party’s election to office at the 2014 election was still regarded as a significant outcome. This was because of the removal of the Coalition Government after only one term in power, when history has shown us that governments in Victoria are often likely to consolidate their position at their first return to the ballot box. It had been more than half a century since Victoria experienced a single term government, in 1952-55, and it was a casualty of the split of the Australian Labor Party. It should be noted however, that the close numbers in the Legislative Assembly in the last Parliament — 44 Coalition, 43 Labor and one Independent, and the redistribution of the state’s electoral boundaries, meant that Labor required a notional uniform swing of only around 1 per cent to gain government. The election result was that Labor secured government by obtaining a total of 47 seats in the 88 seat Parliament with a swing of 3.6 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This election is also historic for the election of two representatives of the Greens Party into the Legislative Assembly: the first time the party has won seats in the Lower House in Victoria. Also, notable, was the election of an Independent in what had been a very safe National Party seat (Shepparton). The make-up of the Legislative Council after the election was also significantly changed. Neither of the major parties won a majority in the Upper House, and the Greens and four other minor parties won ten seats between them. As stated earlier, this paper provides a description and analysis of the results the 2014 Victorian state election, set out in three main sections. Part A of the paper provides some context to the outcome of the election by examining the redistribution of Victoria’s state electoral boundaries, and key issues during the life of the 57th Parliament. Part B of the paper provides an overview of the election campaign, the leaders’ debate, preference deals, social media, key policies, and polls data in the lead up to, and during the campaign. This section also includes a brief overview of the minor parties. Part C of the paper examines the outcomes of the election in both houses and how the parties fared. It also contains a short section on women MPs, new and departing MPs, voter turnout, and the number of candidates contesting the election. Part C also provides statistical tables for each district and region and additional tables and information on relevant voter statistics

Prolonged Symptoms of Cultural Anxiety: The Persistance of Narratives of Asian Invasion within Multicultural Australia

Prolonged Symptoms of Cultural Anxiety: The Persistance of Narratives of Asian Invasion within Multicultural Australi

Developing lithium chemistry of 1,2-dihydropyridines : from kinetic intermediates to isolable characterized compounds

Generally considered kinetic intermediates in addition reactions of alkyllithiums to pyridine, 1-lithio-2-alkyl-1,2-dihydropyridines have been rarely isolated or characterized. This study develops their "isolated" chemistry. By a unique stoichiometric (that is 1:1, alkyllithium:pyridine ratios) synthetic approach using tridentate donors we show it is possible to stabilize and hence crystallize monomeric complexes where alkyl is tert-butyl. Theoretical calculations probing the donor-free parent tert-butyl species reveal 12 energetically similar stereoisomers in two distinct cyclotrimeric (LiN)3 conformations. NMR studies (including DOSY spectra) and thermal volatility analysis compare new sec-butyl and iso-butyl isomers showing the former is a hexane soluble efficient hydrolithiation agent converting benzophenone to lithium diphenylmethoxide. Emphasizing the criticalness of stoichiometry, reaction of nBuLi/Me6TREN with two equivalents of pyridine results in non-alkylated 1-lithio-1,4-dihydropyridine·Me6TREN and 2-n-butylpyridine, implying mechanistically the kinetic 1,2-n-butyl intermediate hydrolithiates the second pyridine

NHS Tayside : Child Weight Management [Final Report]

NHS Tayside are in the process of reviewing the Child Healthy Weight Service (CHWS) offered by the board and have commissioned the Digital Health and Care Innovation Centre to map the current offering and carry out engagement to explore current challenges and possible service innovations. All engagement was moved from the initial intention of face to face to virtual with interviews and a workshop and focus group being successfully carried out over MS Teams with a a broad range of stakeholders involved. It was obvious from the level of engagement that both the professionals involved in the service and partners working with children in different roles see this work as vitally important for the future. The need for prevention and early intervention was consistently highlighted by stakeholders together with the lack of weight measurement data in children and the challenge of evidencing success. In addition a number of themes emerged which fell into the three broad categories of the Referrals process, the Service itself and suggested overarching improvements. Referral: Several challenge areas around the referral to CHWS process were highlighted including the complexity involved in individuals with multiple referrals and the challenge of sharing information between those services. The challenge of having conversations around healthy weight and the importance of the family’s readiness and family environment were all noted as areas which could be focused on. There was also discussion around eligibility for the service (Tier 2 and 3). Service: Three main areas were discussed in the delivery of the service. These included the need to better coordinate interdepartmental relationships and pathways, the need for a family based interventions and focus on prevention and early identification of unhealthy weight. Improvements: The improvements discussed included additional materials and support for allied organisations prior to referral. This could be used in some cases instead of a referral to the service. Clear consistent messaging would support this activity and ensure a unified coordinated approach. An agreement on fuller information on a child’s story prior to referral would help CHWS once the referral has been made. DHI are currently working on digital solutions for weight management in general and would be open to collaboration and sharing of findings with NHS Tayside going forward

The Microevolution and Epidemiology of Staphylococcus aureus Colonization during Atopic Eczema Disease Flare.

Staphylococcus aureus is an opportunistic pathogen and variable component of the human microbiota. A characteristic of atopic eczema (AE) is colonization by S. aureus, with exacerbations associated with an increased bacterial burden of the organism. Despite this, the origins and genetic diversity of S. aureus colonizing individual patients during AE disease flares is poorly understood. To examine the microevolution of S. aureus colonization, we deep sequenced S. aureus populations from nine children with moderate to severe AE and 18 non-atopic children asymptomatically carrying S. aureus nasally. Colonization by clonal S. aureus populations was observed in both AE patients and control participants, with all but one of the individuals carrying colonies belonging to a single sequence type. Phylogenetic analysis showed that disease flares were associated with the clonal expansion of the S. aureus population, occurring over a period of weeks to months. There was a significant difference in the genetic backgrounds of S. aureus colonizing AE cases versus controls (Fisher exact test, P = 0.03). Examination of intra-host genetic heterogeneity of the colonizing S. aureus populations identified evidence of within-host selection in the AE patients, with AE variants being potentially selectively advantageous for intracellular persistence and treatment resistance.CPH was supported by Wellcome Trust (grant number 104241/z/14/z). MTGH, KAP, and KO were supported by the Scottish Infection Research Network and Chief Scientist Office through the Scottish Healthcare Associated Infection Prevention Institute consortium funding (CSO reference: SIRN10). Bioinformatics and computational biology analyses were supported by the University of St Andrews Bioinformatics Unit that is funded by a Wellcome Trust ISSF award (grant 097831/Z/11/Z). JP and MTGH were supported by Wellcome Trust grant 098051. AEM is supported by Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council grant BB/M014088/1. SJB is supported by a Wellcome Trust Senior Research Fellowship in Clinical Science (106865/Z/15/Z)

Climate emergency summit III:nature-based solutions report

An RSGS & SNH report from the Climate Summit held in April 2020"The Climate Emergency is the result of burning fossils fuels and changes in the way we use the land that short-circuit global carbon and nitrogen cycles. To remain within safe climate limits (1.5-2°C), the remaining carbon budget for all people, and for all time, is now so small that stopping fossil fuel use, while essential, will not by itself address the problem. Changing the way we use the land and sea is now essential. Nature-based solutions are vital to creating a safe operating space for humanity. "Extract from the foreword by Dr Clive Mitchell, Outcome Manager: People and Nature, Scottish Natural Heritage. The report has 45 contributors for a variety of institutions

A future of extreme precipitation and droughts in the Peruvian Andes

Runoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change

Evaluating the Influence of Epidemiological Parameters and Host Ecology on the Spread of Phocine Distemper Virus through Populations of Harbour Seals

Catriona Harris was supported by a grant from the UK Natural Environment Research Council. The funders had no role in study design, data collections and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Background: Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics. Methodology and Principal Findings: We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers. Conclusions: Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Osteoarthritis Preoperative Package for care of Orthotics, Rehabilitation, Topical and oral agent Usage and Nutrition to Improve ouTcomes at a Year (OPPORTUNITY); a feasibility study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BackgroundPatients’ pre-operative health and physical function is known to influence their post-operative outcomes. In patients with knee osteoarthritis, pharmacological and non-pharmacological options are often not optimised prior to joint replacement. This results in some patients undergoing surgery when they are not as fit as they could be. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility and acceptability of a pre-operative package of non-operative care versus standard care prior to joint replacement.Methods/designThis is a multicentre, randomised controlled feasibility trial of patients undergoing primary total knee replacement for osteoarthritis. Sixty patients will be recruited and randomised (2:1) to intervention or standard care arms. Data will be collected at baseline (before the start of the intervention), around the end of the intervention period and a minimum of 90 days after the planned date of surgery. Adherence will be reviewed each week during the intervention period (by telephone or in person). Participants will be randomised to a pre-operative package of non-operative care or standard care. The non-operative care will consist of (1) a weight-loss programme, (2) a set of exercises, (3) provision of advice on analgesia use and (4) provision of insoles. The intervention will be started as soon as possible after patients have been added to the waiting list for joint replacement surgery to take advantage of the incentive for behavioural change that this will create. The primary outcomes of this study are feasibility outcomes which will indicate whether the intervention and study protocol is feasible and acceptable and whether a full-scale effectiveness trial is warranted.The following will be measured and used to inform study feasibility: rate of recruitment, rate of retention at 90-day follow-up review after planned surgery date, and adherence to the intervention estimated through review questionnaires and weight change (for those receiving the weight-loss aspect of intervention). In addition the following information will be assessed qualitatively: analysis of qualitative interviews exploring acceptability, feasibility, adherence and possible barriers to implementing the intervention, and acceptability of the different outcome measures.DiscussionThe aims of the study specifically relate to testing the feasibility and acceptability of the proposed effectiveness trial intervention and the feasibility of the trial methods.This study forms the important first step in developing and assessing whether the intervention has the potential to be assessed in a future fully powered effectiveness trial. The findings will also be used to refine the design of the effectiveness trial.Trial registrationISRCTN registry, ID: ISRCTN96684272. Registered on 18 April 2018

Genome-wide association study of corticobasal degeneration identifies risk variants shared with progressive supranuclear palsy

Corticobasal degeneration (CBD) is a neurodegenerative disorder affecting movement and cognition, definitively diagnosed only at autopsy. Here, we conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in CBD cases (n = 152) and 3, 311 controls, and 67 CBD cases and 439 controls in a replication stage. Associations with meta-analysis were 17q21 at MAPT (P = 1.42 x 10(-12)),8p12 at lnc-KIF13B-1, a long non-coding RNA (rs643472;P = 3.41 x 10(-8)),and 2p22 at SOS1 (rs963731;P = 1.76 x 10(-7)). Testing for association of CBD with top progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP) GWAS single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified associations at MOBP (3p22;rs1768208;P = 2.07 x 10(-7)) and MAPT H1c (17q21;rs242557;P = 7.91 x 10(-6)). We previously reported SNP/transcript level associations with rs8070723/MAPT, rs242557/MAPT, and rs1768208/MOBP and herein identified association with rs963731/SOS1. We identify new CBD susceptibility loci and show that CBD and PSP share a genetic risk factor other than MAPT at 3p22 MOBP (myelin-associated oligodendrocyte basic protein)