Application of ordinal logistic to pregnancy outcomes

This research aimed at modelling a categorial response i.e. pregnancy outcome in terms of some predictors and determine the goodness of fit of the model and thereby proferring useful suggestions and recommendations. Ordinal logistic regression was used as a tool to model the pregnancy outcome(i.e live birth, still birth and abortion) with respect to maternal ages, health status, marital status, literacy level, parity, antenatal care, cesarean section,previous surgery and fetal weight. The data of 100 preganant women were gotten from Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado Ekiti. The study showed that pregnancy outcomes are greatly affected by antenatal care, previous surgery and fetal weight. The study showed that the estimated odd is 19.2 times in favour of individuals that attended Antenatal (i.e. they are 19 times more likely to have livebirth compared to those who did not attend antenatal care). Keyworks: Pregnancy,ordinal logistic regression, probability, catagorical data.

Application of ordinal logistic to pregnancy outcomes

This research aimed at modelling a categorial response i.e. pregnancy outcome in terms of some predictors and determine the goodness of fit of the model and thereby proferring useful suggestions and recommendations. Ordinal logistic regression was used as a tool to model the pregnancy outcome(i.e live birth, still birth and abortion) with respect to maternal ages, health status, marital status, literacy level, parity, antenatal care, cesarean section,previous surgery and fetal weight. The data of 100 preganant women were gotten from Ekiti State University Teaching Hospital, Ado Ekiti. The study showed that pregnancy outcomes are greatly affected by antenatal care, previous surgery and fetal weight. The study showed that the estimated odd is 19.2 times in favour of individuals that attended Antenatal (i.e. they are 19 times more likely to have livebirth compared to those who did not attend antenatal care). Keyworks: Pregnancy,ordinal logistic regression, probability, catagorical data.

Medicinal plants with anti-SARS-CoV activity repurposing for treatment of COVID-19 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The novel SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) has emerged as a significant threat to public health with startling drawbacks in all sectors globally. This study investigates the practicality of some medicinal plants for SARS-CoV-2 therapy using a systematic review and meta-analysis of their reported SARS-CoV-1 inhibitory potencies. Relevant data were systematically gathered from three databases, viz., Web of Science, PubMed and Scopus. The information obtained included botanical information, extraction method and extracts concentrations, as well as the proposed mechanisms. Fourteen articles describing 30 different plants met our eligibility criteria. Random effects model and subgroup analysis were applied to investigate heterogeneity. According to subgroup analysis, the substantial heterogeneity of the estimated mean based on the IC50 values reporting the most potent anti-SARS-CoV 3C-like protease (3CLpro) inhibitors (10.07 %, p < 0.0001), was significantly higher compared to the most active anti-SARS-CoV papain-like protease (PLpro) inhibitors (6.12 %, p < 0.0001). More importantly, the literature analysis revealed that fruit extracts of Rheum palmatum Linn. and the compound cryptotanshinone isolated from the root of Salvia miltiorrhiza (IC50 = of 0.8 ± 0.2 µmol L–1) were excellent candidates for anti-SARS-CoV targeting PLpro. Meanwhile, iguesterin (IC50 = 2.6 ± 0.6 µmol L–1) isolated from the bark of Tripterygium regelii emerged as the most excellent candidate for anti-SARS-CoV targeting 3CLpro. The present systematic review and meta-analysis provide valuable and comprehensive information about potential medicinal plants for SARS-CoV-2 inhibition. The chemotypes identified herein can be adopted as a starting point for developing new drugs to contain the novel virus

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

A Bibliometric Analysis of the Literature on Norovirus Disease from 1991&ndash;2021

Norovirus (NoV) is one of the oldest recognized diseases and the leading causal pathogen for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) worldwide. Though numerous studies have been reported on NoV disease, limited research has explored the publication trends in this area. As a result, the objective of this work was to fill the void by conducting a bibliometric study in publication trends on NoV studies as well as discovering the hotspots. The Web of Science central assemblage database was hunted for publications from 1991 to 2021 with &ldquo;norovirus&rdquo; in the heading. Microsoft Excel 2016, VOSviewer, R Bibliometrix, and Biblioshiny packages were deployed for the statistical analysis of published research articles. A total of 6021 published documents were identified in the Web of Science database for this thirty-year study period (1991&ndash;2021). The analyses disclosed that the Journal of Medical Virology was the leading journal in publications on norovirus studies with a total of 215 published articles, the Journal of Virology was the most cited document with 11,185 total citations. The United States of America (USA) has the most significant productivity in norovirus publications and is the leading country with the highest international collaboration. Analysis of top germane authors discovered that X. Jiang (135) and J. Vinje (119) were the two top relevant authors of norovirus publications. The commonly recognized funders were US and EU-based, with the US emerging as a top funder. This study reveals trends in scientific findings and academic collaborations and serves as a leading-edge model to reveal trends in global research in the field of norovirus research. This study points out the progress status and trends on NoV research. It can help researchers in the medical profession obtain a comprehensive understanding of the state of the art of NoV. It also has reference values for the research and application of the NoV visualization methods. Further, the research map on AGE obtained by our analysis is expected to help researchers efficiently and effectively explore the NoV field

Mapping Scientific Productivity Trends and Hotspots in Remdesivir Research Publications: A Bibliometric Study from 2016 to 2021

In response to global efforts to control and exterminate infectious diseases, this study aims to provide insight into the productivity of remdesivir research and highlight future directions. To achieve this, there is a need to summarize and curate evidence from the literature. As a result, this study carried out comprehensive scientific research to detect trends in published articles related to remdesivir using a bibliometric analysis. Keywords associated with remdesivir were used to access pertinent published articles using the Scopus database. A total of 5321 research documents were retrieved, primarily as novel research articles (n = 2440; 46%). The number of publications increased exponentially from 2020 up to the present. The papers published by the top 12 institutions focusing on remdesivir accounted for 25.69% of the overall number of articles. The USA ranked as the most productive country, with 906 documents (37.1%), equivalent to one-third of the global publications in this field. The most productive institution was Icahn School of Medicine, Mount Sinai, in the USA (103 publications). The New England Journal of Medicine was the most cited, with an h-index of 13. The publication of research on remdesivir has gained momentum in the past year. The importance of remdesivir suggests that it needs continued research to help global health organizations detect areas requiring instant action to implement suitable measures. Furthermore, this study offers evolving hotspots and valuable insights into the scientific advances in this field and provides scaling-up analysis and evidence diffusion on remdesivir

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000&ndash;2021

Malaria is one of the most significant causes of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. It harmfully disturbs the public&rsquo;s health and the economic growth of many developing countries. Despite the massive effect of malaria transmission, the overall pooled proportion of malaria positivity rate in Southern Africa is still elusive. Therefore, the objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to pool estimates of the incidence of the malaria positivity rate, which is the first of its kind in South African countries. A literature search is performed to identify all published articles reporting the incidence of malaria positivity in Southern Africa. Out of the 3359 articles identified, 17 studies meet the inclusion for systematic review and meta-analysis. In addition, because substantial heterogeneity is expected due to the studies being extracted from the universal population, random-effects meta-analyses are carried out to pool the incidence of the malaria positivity rate from diverse diagnostic methods. The result reveals that between-study variability is high (&tau;2 = 0.003; heterogeneity I2 = 99.91% with heterogeneity chi-square &chi;2 = 18,143.95, degree of freedom = 16 and a p-value &lt; 0.0001) with the overall random pooled incidence of 10% (95%CI: 8&ndash;13%, I2 = 99.91%) in the malaria positivity rate. According to the diagnostic method called pooled incidence estimate, the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the leading diagnostic method (17%, 95%CI: 11&ndash;24%, I2 = 99.95%), followed by RDT and qPCR and RDT and loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), respectively, found to be (3%, 95%CI: 2&ndash;3%, I2 = 0%) and (2%, 95%CI: 1&ndash;3%, I2 = 97.94%).Findings of the present study suggest high malaria positive incidence in the region. This implies that malaria control and elimination programmes towards malaria elimination could be negatively impacted and cause delays in actualising malaria elimination set dates. Further studies consisting of larger samples and continuous evaluation of malaria control programmes are recommended

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990–2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories. Methods: We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Findings: In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9–24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89–1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8–28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48–1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1–75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1–612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2–123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4–52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1–85·2) of anaemia YLDs. Interpretation: Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation