Climate simulations of large scale conditions associated with the genesis of medicanes

Póster elaborado para la European Conference on Severe Storms celebrada en Palma de Mallorca del 3 al 7 de octubre de 2011Project Medicanes (GCL2008-01271/CLI) from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain)

Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance

International audienceThe HYDROPTIMET case studies 9-10/06/2000 Catalogne, 8-9/09/2002 Cévennes and 24-26/11/2002 Piémont encompass prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean, attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rains, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low levels. Being aware of the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance and the necessity to cope with it within the operational context when attempting to issue short to mid-range numerical weather predictions of these high impact weather events, a systematic exploration of the predictability of the three selected case studies, subject to uncertainties in the representation of the upper-level precursor disturbance, is carried out in this paper by means of numerical simulations

Predictability of prototype flash flood events in the Western Mediterranean under uncertainties of the precursor upper-level disturbance: the HYDROPTIMET case studies

International audienceThe HYDROPTIMET case studies (9?10 June 2000 Catalogne, 8?9 September 2002 Cévennes and 24?26 November 2002 Piémont) appear to encompass a sort of prototype flash-flood situations in the western Mediterranean attending to the relevant synoptic and mesoscale signatures identified on the meteorological charts. In Catalogne, the convective event was driven by a low-pressure system of relatively small dimensions developed over the mediterranean coast of Spain that moved into southern France. For Cévennes, the main circulation pattern was a synoptic-scale Atlantic low which induced a persistent southerly low-level jet (LLJ) over the western Mediterranean, strengthened by the Alps along its western flank, which guaranteed continuous moisture supply towards southern France where the long-lived, quasistationary convective system developed. The long Piémont episode, very representative of the most severe alpine flash flood events, shares some similarities with the Cévennes situation during its first stage in that it was controlled by a southerly moist LLJ associated with a large-scale disturbance located to the west. However, these circulation features were transient aspects and during the second half of the episode the situation was dominated by a cyclogenesis process over the Mediterranean which gave place to a mesoscale-size depression at surface that acted to force new heavy rain over the slopes of the Alps and maritime areas. That is, the Piémont episode can be catalogued as of mixed type with regard to the responsible surface disturbance, evolving from a large-scale pattern with remote action (like Cévennes) to a mesoscale pattern with local action (like Catalogne). A prominent mid-tropospheric trough or cut-off low can be identified in all events prior and during the period of heavy rain, which clearly served as the precursor agent for the onset of the flash-flood conditions and the cyclogenesis at low-levels. Being aware of the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance and the necessity to cope with it within the operational context when attempting to issue short to mid-range numerical weather predictions of these high impact weather events, a systematic exploration of the predictability of the three selected case studies subject to uncertainties in the representation of the upper-level precursor disturbance is carried out in this paper. The study is based on an ensemble of mesoscale numerical simulations of each event with the MM5 non-hydrostatic model after perturbing in a systematic way the upper-level disturbance, in the sense of displacing slightly this disturbance upstream/downstream along the zonal direction and intensifying/weakening its amplitude. These perturbations are guided by a previous application of the MM5-adjoint model, which consistently shows high sensitivities of the dynamical control of the heavy rain to the flow configuration about the upper-level disturbance on the day before, thus confirming the precursor characteristics of this agent. The perturbations are introduced to the initial conditions by applying a potential vorticity (PV) inversion procedure to the positive PV anomaly associated with the upper-level disturbance, and then using the inverted fields (wind, temperature and geopotential) to modify under a physically consistent balance the model initial fields. The results generally show that the events dominated by mesoscale low-level disturbances (Catalogne and last stage of the Piémont episode) are very sensitive to the initial uncertainties, such that the heavy rain location and magnitude are in some of the experiments strongly changed in response to the "forecast errors" of the cyclone trajectory, intensity, shape and translational speed. In contrast, the other situations (Cévennes and initial stage of the Piémont episode), dominated by a larger scale system wich basically acts to guarantee the establishment and persistence of the southerly LLJ towards the southern France-north Italy orography, exhibit much higher predictability. That is, the slight modifications in the LLJ direction and intensity encompassed by the ensemble of perturbed forecasts are less critical with respect to the heavy precipitation potential and affected area

Diagnosis of bronchial hyperresponsiveness in sport by PC20 value

En este trabajo se exponen los criterios de positividad del Comité Olímpico Internacional versus a la Sociedad Española de Neumología y Cirugía Torácica. Participaron en este estudio ochenta deportistas de alto rendimiento, realizando una historia clínica, una espirometría de reposo y un test de metacolina. Se analiza la sensibilidad y especificidad del test de metacolina mediante curvas ROC. El comité Internacional antidopaje (WADA) requiere que la disminución sea con un PC20 < a 4mg/ml, mientras que para la práctica clínica este descenso debe presentar un PC20 < 8mg/ml. Los resultados fueron: 25% tuvieron un PC20 > de 8mg/ml; el 61% obtuvieron un PC20 < 4mg/ml y un 14% presentaron un PC20 entre 4 y 8mg/ml, correspondiendo el mejor punto de corte a PC20 de 7,6mg/ml con especificidad de 98,3 y sensibilidad de 100%. Se tendría que determinar los mismos criterios para el diagnóstico de los deportistas y los que no lo son.In this work criteria of the International Olympic Committee versus the Spanish Society of Pneumology and Thoracic Surgery are exposed. A study was conducted in eighty high performance athletes of several sports . Who underwent a medical history, resting spirometry and a methacholine challenge test. You get the sensitivity and specificity of methacholine challenge test using Receiver Operating Curves (ROC curves). International anti-doping Committee requires that the decline is a PC20 < 4mg/ml, while clinical practice this fall must submit a PC20 < 8mg/ml. Twenty five percent of those studied had a PC20 > of 8mg/ml, 61% had a PC20 < 4mg/ml and 14% had a 4 to 8mg/ml PC20. The best cutoff point was found for a PC20 of 7.6 mg/ml with a specificity of 98.3 and a sensitivity of 100%. It would have to determine the same criteria for positive diagnosis of athletes and those who are not

A hydrometeorological model intercomparison as a tool to quantify the forecast uncertainty in a medium size basin

Abstract. In the framework of AMPHORE, an INTERREG III B EU project devoted to the hydrometeorological modeling study of heavy precipitation episodes resulting in flood events and the improvement of the operational hydrometeorological forecasts for the prediction and prevention of flood risks in the Western Mediterranean area, a hydrometeorological model intercomparison has been carried out, in order to estimate the uncertainties associated with the discharge predictions. The analysis is performed for an intense precipitation event selected as a case study within the project, which affected northern Italy and caused a flood event in the upper Reno river basin, a medium size catchment in the Emilia-Romagna Region. Two different hydrological models have been implemented over the basin: HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI which are driven in two ways. Firstly, stream-flow simulations obtained by using precipitation observations as input data are evaluated, in order to be aware of the performance of the two hydrological models. Secondly, the rainfall-runoff models have been forced with rainfall forecast fields provided by mesoscale atmospheric model simulations in order to evaluate the reliability of the discharge forecasts resulting by the one-way coupling. The quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) are provided by the numerical mesoscale models COSMO and MM5. Furthermore, different configurations of COSMO and MM5 have been adopted, trying to improve the description of the phenomena determining the precipitation amounts. In particular, the impacts of using different initial and boundary conditions, different mesoscale models and of increasing the horizontal model resolutions are investigated. The accuracy of QPFs is assessed in a threefold procedure. First, these are checked against the observed spatial rainfall accumulations over northern Italy. Second, the spatial and temporal simulated distributions are also examined over the catchment of interest. And finally, the discharge simulations resulting from the one-way coupling with HEC-HMS and TOPKAPI are evaluated against the rain-gauge driven simulated flows, thus employing the hydrological models as a validation tool. The different scenarios of the simulated river flows – provided by an independent implementation of the two hydrological models each one forced with both COSMO and MM5 – enable a quantification of the uncertainties of the precipitation outputs, and therefore, of the discharge simulations. Results permit to highlight some hydrological and meteorological modeling factors which could help to enhance the hydrometeorological modeling of such hazardous events. Main conclusions are: (1) deficiencies in precipitation forecasts have a major impact on flood forecasts; (2) large-scale shift errors in precipitation patterns are not improved by only enhancing the mesoscale model resolution; and (3) weak differences in flood forecasting performance are found by using either a distributed continuous or a semi-distributed event-based hydrological model for this catchment

Tug-of-war between corrugation and binding energy: revealing the formation of multiple moiré patterns on a strongly interacting graphene-metal system

The formation of multidomain epitaxial graphene on Rh(111) under ultra-high vacuum (UHV) conditions has been characterized by scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) measurements and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. At variance with the accepted view for strongly interacting graphene-metal systems, we clearly demonstrate the formation of different rotational domains leading to multiple moiré structures with a wide distribution of surface periodicities. Experiments reveal a correlation between the STM apparent corrugation and the lattice parameter of the moiré unit cell, with corrugations of just 30-40 pm for the smallest moirés. DFT calculations for a relevant selection of these moiré patterns show much larger height differences and a non-monotonic behaviour with the moiré size. Simulations based on non-equilibrium Green's function (NEGF) methods reproduce quantitatively the experimental trend and provide a detailed understanding of the interplay between electronic and geometric contributions in the STM contrast of graphene systems. Our study sheds light on the subtle energy balance among strain, corrugation and binding that drives the formation of the moiré patterns in all graphene/metal systems and suggests an explanation for the success of an effective model only based on the lattice mismatch. Although low values of the strain energy are a necessary condition, it is the ability of graphene to corrugate in order to maximize the areas of favourable graphene-metal interactions that finally selects the stable configurationsWe acknowledge financial support from Spanish grants MAT2013-41636-P, MAT2011-23627, MAT2011-26534, CSD2010-00024 (MINECO, Spain) and S2009/MAT-1467 (CAM, Spain). A.J.M.G. was supported by a Marie Curie action under the Seventh Framework Programme. P.P. was supported by the Ramón y Cajal Progra

Morphological identification and DNA barcoding of a new species of Parabrachiella (Siphonostomatoida: Lernaeopodidae) with aspects of their intraspecific variation

We present a detailed morphological description and a DNA barcoding of Parabrachiella platensis n. sp. collected from Mugil liza Valenciennes in Samborombon Bay (Buenos Aires, Argentina). This new species was compared with two Parabrachiella species parasitic on mugilids: Parabrachiella exilis (Shiino, 1956) and Parabrachiella mugilis (Kabata, Raibaut et Ben Hassine, 1971). Parabrachiella platensis n. sp. differs from those species in the shape of posterior processes, the anal slit with two pairs of bipartite papillae, the size of cephalothorax, the trunk, the maxilla, the microhabitat on the host, and the lack of caudal rami. On the host, the new species was in the nostrils (a new site for a species of the genus Parabrachiella) and in the fins base. Some minor morphological differences were observed in relation to the locations on the host. The molecular analysis conducted based on mtDNA-COI between specimens of the new species on the fins and nostrils showed a genetic similarity of 99.8%. This percentage supports that the specimens found in nostrils and fins base could represent a single species. New studies on P. platensis n. sp., including infection of the same fish with the two forms, could bring some new information. Anyway according to the genetic information provided and the minimal morphological differences spotted we conclude that the two forms are a single specie. The differences observed are possibly influenced by the place of the host where the two forms of copepods were found, nostrils and fins. The new species was also molecularly compared to other five species of Parabrachiella including P. exilis (parasitizing mugilid from Chile), Parabrachiella anisotremis, Parabrachiella auriculata, Parabrachiella merluccii, and P. hugu (the last two sequences were taken from the GenBank). The genetic distance of 9% among P. platensis n. sp. and P. exilis, which is the close morphological related species, allow to states that these two copepods on mugilids belong to different species and then validating the morphological differences found between them.Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectore

Interventions to facilitate shared decision-making using decision aids with patients in Primary Health Care: A systematic review

BACKGROUND: Shared decision making (SDM) is a process within the physician-patient relationship applicable to any clinical action, whether diagnostic, therapeutic, or preventive in nature. It has been defined as a process of mutual respect and participation between the doctor and the patient. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of decision aids (DA) in primary care based on changes in adherence to treatments, knowledge, and awareness of the disease, conflict with decisions, and patients'' and health professionals'' satisfaction with the intervention. METHODS: A systematic review following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines was conducted in Medline, CINAHL, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database. The inclusion criteria were randomized clinical trials as study design; use of SDM with DA as an intervention; primary care as clinical context; written in English, Spanish, and Portuguese; and published between January 2007 and January 2019. The risk of bias of the included studies in this review was assessed according to the Cochrane Collaboration''s tool. RESULTS: Twenty four studies were selected out of the 201 references initially identified. With the use of DA, the use of antibiotics was reduced in cases of acute respiratory infection and decisional conflict was decreased when dealing with the treatment choice for atrial fibrillation and osteoporosis. The rate of determination of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in the prostate cancer screening decreased and colorectal cancer screening increased. Both professionals and patients increased their knowledge about depression, type 2 diabetes, and the perception of risk of acute myocardial infarction at 10 years without statins and with statins. The satisfaction was greater with the use of DA in choosing the treatment for depression, in cardiovascular risk management, in the treatment of low back pain, and in the use of statin therapy in diabetes. Blinding of outcomes assessment was the most common bias. CONCLUSIONS: DA used in primary care are effective to reduce decisional conflict and improve knowledge on the disease and treatment options, awareness of risk, and satisfaction with the decisions made. More studies are needed to assess the impact of shared decision making in primary care

(1′S,2R,3R)-(−)-2-Hydr­oxy-3-morpholino-3-phenyl-N-(1′-phenyl­ethyl)propion­amide

In the title compound, C21H26N2O3, the morpholine ring has a chair conformation and the dihedral angle between the two phenyl rings is 59.0 (3)°. The crystal packing is stabilized by inter­molecular O—H⋯O hydrogen bonds, generating a ribbon structure along the a axis. An intra­molecular N—H⋯O contact is also present

First identification of Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis sheep strain in Argentina

We here identified for the first time the presence of Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis (MAP) sheep (S) strain in Argentina. IS900 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was positive. The S strain was compared with MAP cattle (C) strains by using IS1311 PCR-restriction endonuclease analysis (PCR-REA), multiplex PCR and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis.Fil: Traveria, Gabriel. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Departamento de Clinica. Centro de Diagnostico E Investigaciones Veterinarias; ArgentinaFil: Zumárraga, Martín José. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Centro de Investigación de Ciencias Veterinarias y Agronómicas. Instituto de Biotecnología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Etchechoury, Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Centro de Investigación de Ciencias Veterinarias y Agronómicas. Instituto de Biotecnología; ArgentinaFil: Romano, Maria Isabel. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Centro de Investigación de Ciencias Veterinarias y Agronómicas. Instituto de Biotecnología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Cataldi, Angel Adrian. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Agropecuarias. Centro de Investigación de Ciencias Veterinarias y Agronómicas. Instituto de Biotecnología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Alvarado Pinedo, M. F.. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Departamento de Clinica. Centro de Diagnostico E Investigaciones Veterinarias; ArgentinaFil: Pavlik, I.. Veterinary Research Institute; República ChecaFil: Pribylova, R.. Veterinary Research Institute; República ChecaFil: Romero, J. R.. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias. Departamento de Clinica. Centro de Diagnostico E Investigaciones Veterinarias; Argentin