ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ИНДИКАТОРЫ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ ОБЪЕМОВ ВЫСОКОТЕХНОЛОГИЧНЫХ ВИДОВ МЕДИЦИНСКОЙ ПОМОЩИ В СЛУЧАЯХ РАКА МОЛОЧНЫХ ЖЕЛЕЗ

Introduction. The diagnostic possibilities for breast cancer (BC) are expanding. The results of BC patients treatment are also improving. The 5-year survival rate in BC patients is increasing. The number of mastectomy (ME) in BC patients does  not decrease. Therefore, the BC epidemiological data analysis in the female population of Russia is in demand to predict the need of the volumes of the breast reconstruction after ME.Methods and materials. A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The information on BC cases in St. Petersburg residents in 2011–2018 yr. was analyzed. Statistical processing was carried out using the programs Statistica 12.0 for Windows, «Population cancer registry».Resalts and discussion. In 2017 yr., in St. Petersburg, the incidence of BC was 60.11 0/0000. The prevalence of BC in the analyzed period is higher than the national indicator by 19.3 %. In 2018 yr., women of working age were diagnosed with BC 16.6 % more often than in 2011. The frequency of the I–II stage BC verification in 2011 – 2018 yr. increased 1.2 times, reaching 72.2 % in 2018 yr. In 2018 yr., the 5-year survival rate in BC patients was 63.4 %.Conclusion. In connection with the annual increase in the number of BC patients undergoing ME, it is reasonable to expect an increase in potential needs for breast reconstruction, which will necessitate the expansion of the volume of hightech types of medical care provided to BC patients.Введение. Возможности диагностики рака молочных желез (РМолЖ) расширяются. Улучшаются результаты лечения больных злокачественными новообразованиями (ЗНО) молочных желез. Параметры 5-летней выживаемости больных РМолЖ увеличиваются. Число случаев проведения мастэктомии (МЭ) по поводу ЗНО МолЖ не снижается. Поэтому анализ эпидемиологических данных о наблюдениях ЗНО МолЖ у женского населения России востребован для прогнозирования необходимости оптимизации объемов восстановительного компонента оказания медицинской помощи (МП) пациенткам, подвергшимся МЭ.Методы и материалы. Проведено ретроспективное когортное исследование. Проанализированы сведения о случаях РМолЖ у жительниц Санкт-Петербурга в 2011–2018 гг. Статистическая обработка проведена с применением программ «Statistica 12,0» для Windows, «Популяционный раковый регистр».Результаты. В 2017 г. в Санкт-Петербурге заболеваемость РМолЖ зарегистрирована на уровне 60,11 0/0000. Распространенность ЗНО МолЖ за анализируемый период выше общероссийского показателя на 19,3 %. В 2018 г. РМолЖ у горожанок трудоспособного возраста диагностирован на 16,6 % чаще, чем в 2011 г. Удельный вес случаев верификации РМолЖ I–II стадии опухолевого процесса в 2011–2018 гг. возрос в 1,2 раза, достигнув 72,2 % в 2018 г. В 2018 г. параметр 5-летней выживаемости больных РМолЖ составил 63,4 %.Заключение. В связи с ежегодным увеличением численности больных РМолЖ, перенесших МЭ, допустимо ожидать рост потенциальных потребностей в протезировании МолЖ, что обусловит необходимость расширения объемов высокотехнологичных видов МП, оказываемой пациенткам с ЗНО МолЖ.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the 21st century

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include: warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land-use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large scale water withdrawals, land use and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that Integrated Assessment Models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts

Submesoscale Eddies in the White Sea Based on Satellite Radar Measurements

This paper presents the results of the analysis of the archive of radar images of Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) and Radarsat-1,2 for the warm period of 2009-2012. For the first time surface manifestations of submesoscale eddies are mapped in the White Sea.The areas of persistent eddy activity as well as eddy characteristics are determined using the statistical analysis. According to in situ observations some of the observed small eddies are generated due to a strong tidal flow around the underwater hills. A significant part of the observed eddies have been detected in the straits and near hydrological fronts, which indicates their important contribution to the processes of water exchange and mixing

Agricultural Landscapes: History, Status and Challenges

Agricultural landscapes (rural landscapes, agrolandscapes) are territories shaped by agricultural production. They have enabled the development of human civilizations and are a cultural achievement. Peasants, farmers and agricultural enterprises feed society. They have created agricultural landscapes for their business and habitats for their life. To understand transformation processes in agricultural landscapes, we analyse the history of agriculture with a special focus on Europe and Eurasia. Current agricultural landscapes in a crowded, globalized world are multifunctional, highly complex systems. They not only serve to produce food commodities and energy for the increasing and expanding urban population but also provide diverse ecosystem services and need to cater for the demands of the rural population. Current agriculture is highly productive in wealthy countries, but due to high inputs it is also responsible for environmental problems such as water pollution and loss of biodiversity. Industrial-style agriculture in large fields has resulted in increased productivity but simplified the structure of landscapes and eliminated elements of nature and rural culture. Major problems that urgently need to be addressed include trends towards disrupting natural cycles in agricultural production, soil and water degradation, ageing populations in villages and the breakdown of rural infrastructure. Agricultural landscape research provides analyses to understand these processes and helps elaborate sustainable scientific, technical and cultural solutions