Methodical approach to foresight-research at definition of trends in Green IT development

The problem of determining the Green IT development strategy using decision support tools is described in the article. Technology Green IT is a typical result of the advanced technologies convergence, especially information and knowledge. The expediency of the foresight technology applying for the Green IT development perspective directions evaluating is shown. It is indicated that the most critical, in this case, is the stage of forming the initial list of directions. The technology of retrospective analysis of the Green IT development based on the parametric synthesis of the predictive model of exponential smoothing under the conditions of data uncertainty is presented. For the implementation of the parametric analysis of Brown’s predictive model, or exponential smoothing, is used the exponential average value of the stationary time series to evaluate its value at the next time point. The applying of the developed technology provides experts with additional volumes of information about the perspectives for the Green IT development. An example of a retrospective analysis of the Green IT development directions is given. The initial data for the retrospective analysis used the number of scientific publications for the period from 2010 to 2015 in Ukraine, which characterizes the Green IT direction development. The following directions were assessed: green software engineering, software ecosystem, energy-saving green software and green telecommunications. As a result, the most promising direction is green software engineering. The results of the analysis are one of the sources of information for assessing the perspectives for the Green IT development directions by expert

The Technology of Calculating the Optimal Modes of the Disk Heating (Ball)

The paper considers the problem of optimal control of the process of thermal conductivity of a homogeneous disk (ball). An optimization problem is posed for a one-dimensional parabolic type equation with a mixed-type boundary condition. The goal of the control is to bring the temperature distribution in the disk (ball) to a given distribution in a finite time. To solve this problem, an algorithm is proposed that is based on the gradient method. The object of the study is the optimal control problem for a parabolic boundary value problem. Using the discretization of the original continuous differential problem, difference equations are obtained for which a numerical solution algorithm is proposed. Difference approximation of a differential problem is performed using an implicit scheme, which allows to increase the speed of calculations and provides the specified accuracy of calculation for a smaller number of iterations. An approximate solution of a parabolic equation is constructed using the one-dimensional sweep method. Using differentiation of the functional, an expression for the gradient of the objective functional is obtained. In this paper, it was possible to reduce the multidimensional heat conduction problem to a one-dimensional one, due to the assumption that the desired solution is symmetric. A formula is obtained for calculating the variation of a quadratic functional that characterizes the deviation of the current temperature distribution from the given one. The flowcharts and implementations of the algorithm are presented in the form of Matlab scripts, which clearly demonstrate the process of thermal conductivity and show the computation and application of optimal control in dynamics

Online-keskkonnas valitsevad riskid ja nende teadvustamine 9-12-aastaste laste seas

The main objective of this paper was to map the knowledge and attitudes about internet risks among 9-12 year old Estonian children. The empirical and theoretical part of this study gives an overview of theoretical basis of generational gap as well as childrens attitudes and beliefs about internet risks, also classifies online-risks and possibilities and at the end gives latest research results of parents concerns and attitudes towards childrens internet use. A qualitative study was conducted among 11 Tallinn´s 9-12 year old children to find answers to research questions. Results of this study are described in the second part of the paper. 93% of the 6-17 year old children in Estonia use internet. Also parents of estonian children are very frequent internet users compared to rest of the countries in EU. 91% of the parents use internet and 71% of them does it every day. Besides the fact that estonian children are very frequent users of internet they also spend a significant amount of time online each time. Little bit less than one third (28%) of the children spend every day more than 3 hours online, other third (30%) spends online nearly 3 hours, 1- 2 hours in a day spend online also almost 30% of the children. Only one tenth of the children spend less than an hour a day on the web. The more opportunities children experience online, the more risks they are likely to encounter. Research shows that very many children and adults have come accross disturbing content of the internet and usually they lack of knowledge, how to handle the emotional stress it causes. Also parents don´t know how to recognize possible threat to their children, how to intervene and how to help. Comparing estonian studies to the studies conducted in the rest of the Europe it is evident, that Estonia has high risk potential when internet risks are in concern. Even though Estonian children have high risk potential, their parents are not giving them much support. Estonian parents don´t have a habit of talking to their children about internet risks. Also they use a lot less strategies of parental control over their childrens internet use than other parents in Europe. According to international research group EU Kids Online high risk countries like Estonia need desperatly rise of awareness about internet risks. Next a review of findings of interviews conducted with 9-12 year old children. Research question no 1. What internet risks do 9-12 year old children know and consider to be problematic? Children in researched age group are quite aware of the risks they might come across in internet. Mainly they use internet for playing games, communicating and listening and downloading music. Within these possibilities they could name risks involved rather well. They were aware of the viruses and adware, giving personal information to strangers, cyberbullying, illegal file downloads, harrasment and disturbing content of the internet. However it is important to mention that children did not find these risks to be much of a threat to them. Research question no 2. What kinds of risks have children experienced themselves? Almost all the children have experienced viruses in their computer and some other technical problems. There were some contacts of risks causing possible emotional distress like cyberbullying, sexual harrasment etc. Some were experienced by interviewd children themselves, others by their friends. Research question no 3. Where do they get information about internet risks? If they get any information at all it comes from their parents or peers, some amount also from the internet itself. Although majority of children could not remember any case of some adult giving them advice about internet risks. They knew about risks but couldn´t rembember how it had reached their knowledge. Research question no 4. Do children sense parental concern and control? Direct control is present mostly when younger children are involved and those children who do not have personal computer in their room, but instead use family computer in family area of their home. Children, who have personal computer in their room said usually that they can use internet as they please and parents don´t intervene. Research question no 5. Where do children turn for support if they encounter problems on the internet? Children ask help from their parents when technical problems occur. Since they had not felt emotionally disturbed by any incident they had come accross on the internet they never had asked their parents help or advice in matters concerning bullying, harrasment or grooming. Research question no 6. Do they find their parents to be competent advisors about internet? Even though interviewed children were rather young, several of them felt that they were more competent in computing than their parents. Some children mentioned that they cannot think of any issues in what parents could help them or where they would ask for help.http://www.ester.ee/record=b4014855~S1*es

Специализированные платформы анализа математических моделей в экономике

Evaluation of the effectiveness of the mathematical model in the economic field is one of the pressing problems at the present time. A number of parameters can often be neglected when simplifying the model; however, it is difficult to assess how adequate the model will remain. In order to get this estimate, it became necessary to determine how the behavior of the model has changed, how the data and their nature have changed. Comparative and statistical analyzes help to find answers to the questions posed. A platform that can evaluate the impact of changes made to the model by some criteria and compare the changed model with its original version using statistical analysis methods was implemented to study this problem.La evaluación de la efectividad del modelo matemático en el campo económico es uno de los problemas apremiantes en la actualidad. Una serie de parámetros a menudo se pueden descuidar al simplificar el modelo; sin embargo, es difícil evaluar qué tan adecuado seguirá siendo el modelo. Para obtener esta estimación, se hizo necesario determinar cómo ha cambiado el comportamiento del modelo, cómo han cambiado los datos y su naturaleza. Los análisis comparativos y estadísticos ayudan a encontrar respuestas a las preguntas planteadas. Para implementar este problema, se implementó una plataforma que puede evaluar el impacto de los cambios realizados en el modelo mediante algunos criterios y comparar el modelo modificado con su versión original utilizando métodos de análisis estadístico.Оценка эффективности работы математической модели в экономической области является одной из актуальных проблем в настоящее время. Часто при упрощении модели рядом параметров можно пренебречь, однако достаточно трудно оценить, насколько адекватной она останется. Для того, чтобы получить данную оценку, возникла необходимость определить, насколько изменилось поведение модели, как поменялись данные и их характер. Найти ответы на поставленные вопросы позволяют сравнительный и статистический анализы. Для исследования этой проблемы была реализована платформа, которая может по некоторым признакам оценить влияние внесенных изменений в модель и сравнить с помощью методов статистического анализа измененную модель с ее исходной версией

The method for ranking quasi-optimal alternatives in interval game models against nature

The task of selecting the optimal strategy in the interval game with nature is considered; in particular, the situation when in the interactive dialogue of an analyst and decision support system there are cases of objective ambiguity caused, on the one hand, by interval uncertainty of data, and on the other hand – by the chosen model of the task formalization. The method for ranking quasioptimal alternatives in interval game models against nature is proposed, which enables comparing interval alternatives in cases of classical interval ambiguity. In this case, the function of the analyst preferences is used with respect to the values of the criterion that help determine the indicators for the quantitative ranking of alternatives. By selecting a specific type of the preference function, the researcher artificially converts the primary uncertainty of the data into the uncertainty of the preference function form, which nevertheless enables avoiding the ambiguity in the "fuzzy" areas of quasi-optimal alternatives

Робастне оцінювання області адекватності прогнозної однопараметричної моделі експоненціального згладжування

The problem of parameter synthesis of a forecasting one-parameter model of exponential smoothing for predictive estimation of indicators of the organizational and technical system is considered. To select intervals of a given quality in the range of admissible values of the internal parameter, the criterion of absolute error of multiple forecasts is selected. It allowed the formation of an analytical retrospective model with «soft» constraints. As a result, a method of robust estimation of the adequacy area of the forecasting one-parameter exponential smoothing model is developed, which allows one to analytically evaluate the limits of the adequacy area of the forecasting model depending on the requirements for its retrospective accuracy. The proposed method allows the user to specify a set of permissible retrospective errors depending on the requirements of forecasting specifications. The proposed method can be used for parameter adjustment of one-parameter forecasting models and serves as a decision support tool in the forecasting process. The simulation results are interval estimates, which are preferable to point ones in the process of parameter synthesis. Unlike search methods, the analytical form of retrospective dependencies allows you to obtain a solution with high accuracy and, if necessary, provides the analyst with the opportunity for graphical analysis of the adequacy area of the model. The example shows the fragment of estimating the dynamics of the time series in a retrospective analysis with a depth of three values and specified limit relative errors of 1–4 %. Under such conditions, the area for a reasonable selection of the adjustment parameter is determined by the combined intervals of a width of about 20 % of the initial range of acceptable values.Рассмотрена задача параметрического синтеза прогнозной однопараметрической модели экспоненциального сглаживания для предиктивного оценивания значений показателей организационно-технической системы. Для выделения интервалов заданного качества на области допустимых значений внутреннего параметра выбран критерий абсолютной ошибки множественного прогноза. Его использование позволило сформировать аналитическую ретроспективную модель с «мягкими» ограничениями. В результате разработан метод робастного оценивания области адекватности прогнозной однопараметрической модели экспоненциального сглаживания, который позволяет аналитически оценивать границы области адекватности прогнозной модели в зависимости от требований к ее ретроспективной точности. Предложенный метод дает возможность пользователю задавать набор допустимых ретроспективных ошибок в зависимости от требований технического задания на прогнозирование. Предложенный метод может быть использован для параметрической настройки однопараметрических прогнозных моделей и служит инструментом поддержки принятия решений в процессе прогнозирования. Результаты моделирования представляют собой интервальные оценки, использование которых в процессе параметрического синтеза предпочтительнее точечных. В отличие от поисковых методов, аналитическая форма ретроспективных зависимостей позволяет получать решение с высокой точностью и при необходимости предоставляет аналитику возможности для графического анализа области адекватности модели. На примере показан фрагмент оценивания динамики временного ряда при ретроспективном анализе глубиной в три значения и заданных предельных относительных ошибках в 1–4 %. При таких условиях область для обоснованного выбора настроечного параметра определяется объединенными интервалами шириной около 20 % от начальной области допустимых значенийРозглянуто задачу параметричного синтезу прогнозної однопараметричної моделі експоненціального згладжування для предиктивного оцінювання значень показників організаційно-технічної системи. Для виділення інтервалів заданої якості на області допустимих значень внутрішнього параметра обраний критерій абсолютної похибки множинного прогнозу. Його використання дозволило сформувати аналітичну ретроспективну модель з «м'якими» обмеженнями. В результаті розроблений метод робастного оцінювання області адекватності прогнозної однопараметричної моделі експоненціального згладжування, який дозволяє аналітично оцінювати межі області адекватності прогнозної моделі в залежності від вимог до її ретроспективної точності. Запропонований метод дає можливість користувачеві задавати набір допустимих ретроспективних похибок в залежності від вимог технічного завдання на прогнозування. Запропонований метод може бути використаний для параметричного налаштування однопараметричних прогнозних моделей і служить інструментом підтримки прийняття рішень в процесі прогнозування. Результати моделювання являють собою інтервальні оцінки, використання яких в процесі параметричного синтезу краще точкових. На відміну від пошукових методів, аналітична форма ретроспективних залежностей дозволяє отримувати рішення з високою точністю і при необхідності надає аналітику можливості для графічного аналізу області адекватності моделі. На прикладі показаний фрагмент оцінювання динаміки часового ряду при ретроспективному аналізі глибиною в три значення і заданих граничних відносних похибках в 1–4 %. За таких умов область для обґрунтованого вибору настроювального параметра визначається об'єднаними інтервалами шириною близько 20 % від початкової області допустимих значен