Dynamics of fully coupled rotators with unimodal and bimodal frequency distribution

We analyze the synchronization transition of a globally coupled network of N phase oscillators with inertia (rotators) whose natural frequencies are unimodally or bimodally distributed. In the unimodal case, the system exhibits a discontinuous hysteretic transition from an incoherent to a partially synchronized (PS) state. For sufficiently large inertia, the system reveals the coexistence of a PS state and of a standing wave (SW) solution. In the bimodal case, the hysteretic synchronization transition involves several states. Namely, the system becomes coherent passing through traveling waves (TWs), SWs and finally arriving to a PS regime. The transition to the PS state from the SW occurs always at the same coupling, independently of the system size, while its value increases linearly with the inertia. On the other hand the critical coupling required to observe TWs and SWs increases with N suggesting that in the thermodynamic limit the transition from incoherence to PS will occur without any intermediate states. Finally a linear stability analysis reveals that the system is hysteretic not only at the level of macroscopic indicators, but also microscopically as verified by measuring the maximal Lyapunov exponent.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, contribution for the book: Control of Self-Organizing Nonlinear Systems, Springer Series in Energetics, eds E. Schoell, S.H.L. Klapp, P. Hoeve

Use of automatic radiosonde launchers to measure temperature and humidity profiles from the GRUAN perspective

In the last two decades, technological progress has not only seen improvements to the quality of atmospheric upper-air observations but also provided the opportunity to design and implement automated systems able to replace measurement procedures typically performed manually. Radiosoundings, which remain one of the primary data sources for weather and climate applications, are still largely performed around the world manually, although increasingly fully automated upper-air observations are used, from urban areas to the remotest locations, which minimize operating costs and challenges in performing radiosounding launches. This analysis presents a first step to demonstrating the reliability of the automatic radiosonde launchers (ARLs) provided by Vaisala, Meteomodem and Meisei. The metadata and datasets collected by a few existing ARLs operated by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) certified or candidate sites (Sodankylä, Payerne, Trappes, Potenza) have been investigated and a comparative analysis of the technical performance (i.e. manual versus ARL) is reported. The performance of ARLs is evaluated as being similar or superior to those achieved with the traditional manual launches in terms of percentage of successful launches, balloon burst and ascent speed. For both temperature and relative humidity, the ground-check comparisons showed a negative bias of a few tenths of a degree and % RH, respectively. Two datasets of parallel soundings between manual and ARL-based measurements, using identical sonde models, provided by Sodankylä and Faa'a stations, showed mean differences between the ARL and manual launches smaller than ±0.2 K up to 10 hPa for the temperature profiles. For relative humidity, differences were smaller than 1 % RH for the Sodankylä dataset up to 300 hPa, while they were smaller than 0.7 % RH for Faa'a station. Finally, the observation-minus-background (O–B) mean and root mean square (rms) statistics for German RS92 and RS41 stations, which operate a mix of manual and ARL launch protocols, calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast model, are very similar, although RS41 shows larger rms(O–B) differences for ARL stations, in particular for temperature and wind. A discussion of the potential next steps proposed by GRUAN community and other parties is provided, with the aim to lay the basis for the elaboration of a strategy to fully demonstrate the value of ARLs and guarantee that the provided products are traceable and suitable for the creation of GRUAN data products

Exotic states in a simple network of nanoelectromechanical oscillators.

Synchronization of oscillators, a phenomenon found in a wide variety of natural and engineered systems, is typically understood through a reduction to a first-order phase model with simplified dynamics. Here, by exploiting the precision and flexibility of nanoelectromechanical systems, we examined the dynamics of a ring of quasi-sinusoidal oscillators at and beyond first order. Beyond first order, we found exotic states of synchronization with highly complex dynamics, including weak chimeras, decoupled states, traveling waves, and inhomogeneous synchronized states. Through theory and experiment, we show that these exotic states rely on complex interactions emerging out of networks with simple linear nearest-neighbor coupling. This work provides insight into the dynamical richness of complex systems with weak nonlinearities and local interactions

Meningeal dissemination in primary CNS lymphoma: prospective evaluation of 282 patients

BACKGROUND: The impact of meningeal dissemination in primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) is debated, and the reported frequency varies. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic value of PCR in comparison with CSF cytomorphology and MRI for diagnosing meningeal dissemination in PCNSL. METHODS: We evaluated 282 patients from a multicenter therapy study for PCNSL for the presence of meningeal dissemination: 205 with CSF cytomorphology, 171 with PCR of the rearranged immunoglobulin heavy-chain genes in CSF, and 217 with cranial MRI. RESULTS: Meningeal dissemination was found in 33 of 205 patients (16%) by cytomorphology, in 19 of 171 (11%) patients evaluated by PCR, and in 8 of 217 patients (4%) by MRI. Considering either of these methods, the relative frequency of meningeal dissemination was 17.4% (49 of 282 patients). PCR was monoclonal in 6 of 19 (32%) samples with positive cytomorphology, 1 of 13 samples (8%) with suspicious cytology, and in 10 of 105 (10%) cytologically negative samples. In 11 samples with positive and 12 with suspicious cytology, PCR showed only a polyclonal pattern. The probability of meningeal dissemination detection was higher in cases with CSF pleocytosis (>5/microL) with an OR of 2.48 (95% CI 1.15-5.34, p = 0.018). CSF protein had no predictive value for meningeal dissemination detection. CONCLUSIONS: We found a low rate of meningeal dissemination in primary CNS lymphoma in this large prospective study. The rate of discordant PCR and cytomorphologic results was high. Thus, the methods should be regarded as complementary. CSF pleocytosis had predictive value for meningeal dissemination detection

Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Levy-stable laws and superstatistics

Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today’s frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids

Further investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years: a systematic review.

Background: Further investigation of confirmed UTI in children aims to prevent renal scarring and future complications. Methods: We conducted a systematic review to determine the most effective approach to the further investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection (UTI) in children under five years of age. Results: 73 studies were included. Many studies had methodological limitations or were poorly reported. Effectiveness of further investigations: One study found that routine imaging did not lead to a reduction in recurrent UTIs or renal scarring. Diagnostic accuracy: The studies do not support the use of less invasive tests such as ultrasound as an alternative to renal scintigraphy, either to rule out infection of the upper urinary tract (LR- = 0.57, 95%CI: 0.47, 0.68) and thus to exclude patients from further investigation or to detect renal scarring (LR+ = 3.5, 95% CI: 2.5, 4.8). None of the tests investigated can accurately predict the development of renal scarring. The available evidence supports the consideration of contrast-enhanced ultrasound techniques for detecting vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR), as an alternative to micturating cystourethrography (MCUG) (LR+ = 14.1, 95% CI: 9.5, 20.8; LR- = 0.20, 95%CI: 0.13, 0.29); these techniques have the advantage of not requiring exposure to ionising radiation. Conclusion: There is no evidence to support the clinical effectiveness of routine investigation of children with confirmed UTI. Primary research on the effectiveness, in terms of improved patient outcome, of testing at all stages in the investigation of confirmed urinary tract infection is urgently required

No role for quality scores in systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy studies

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of consensus regarding the use of quality scores in diagnostic systematic reviews. The objective of this study was to use different methods of weighting items included in a quality assessment tool for diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS) to produce an overall quality score, and to examine the effects of incorporating these into a systematic review. METHODS: We developed five schemes for weighting QUADAS to produce quality scores. We used three methods to investigate the effects of quality scores on test performance. We used a set of 28 studies that assessed the accuracy of ultrasound for the diagnosis of vesico-ureteral reflux in children. RESULTS: The different methods of weighting individual items from the same quality assessment tool produced different quality scores. The different scoring schemes ranked different studies in different orders; this was especially evident for the intermediate quality studies. Comparing the results of studies stratified as "high" and "low" quality based on quality scores resulted in different conclusions regarding the effects of quality on estimates of diagnostic accuracy depending on the method used to produce the quality score. A similar effect was observed when quality scores were included in meta-regression analysis as continuous variables, although the differences were less apparent. CONCLUSION: Quality scores should not be incorporated into diagnostic systematic reviews. Incorporation of the results of the quality assessment into the systematic review should involve investigation of the association of individual quality items with estimates of diagnostic accuracy, rather than using a combined quality score

How does study quality affect the results of a diagnostic meta-analysis?

Background: The use of systematic literature review to inform evidence based practice in diagnostics is rapidly expanding. Although the primary diagnostic literature is extensive, studies are often of low methodological quality or poorly reported. There has been no rigorously evaluated, evidence based tool to assess the methodological quality of diagnostic studies. The primary objective of this study was to determine the extent to which variations in the quality of primary studies impact the results of a diagnostic meta-analysis and whether this differs with diagnostic test type. A secondary objective was to contribute to the evaluation of QUADAS, an evidence-based tool for the assessment of quality in diagnostic accuracy studies. Methods: This study was conducted as part of large systematic review of tests used in the diagnosis and further investigation of urinary tract infection (UTI) in children. All studies included in this review were assessed using QUADAS, an evidence-based tool for the assessment of quality in systematic reviews of diagnostic accuracy studies. The impact of individual components of QUADAS on a summary measure of diagnostic accuracy was investigated using regression analysis. The review divided the diagnosis and further investigation of UTI into the following three clinical stages: diagnosis of UTI, localisation of infection, and further investigation of the UTI. Each stage used different types of diagnostic test, which were considered to involve different quality concerns. Results: Many of the studies included in our review were poorly reported. The proportion of QUADAS items fulfilled was similar for studies in different sections of the review. However, as might be expected, the individual items fulfilled differed between the three clinical stages. Regression analysis found that different items showed a strong association with test performance for the different tests evaluated. These differences were observed both within and between the three clinical stages assessed by the review. The results of regression analyses were also affected by whether or not a weighting (by sample size) was applied. Our analysis was severely limited by the completeness of reporting and the differences between the index tests evaluated and the reference standards used to confirm diagnoses in the primary studies. Few tests were evaluated by sufficient studies to allow meaningful use of meta-analytic pooling and investigation of heterogeneity. This meant that further analysis to investigate heterogeneity could only be undertaken using a subset of studies, and that the findings are open to various interpretations. Conclusion: Further work is needed to investigate the influence of methodological quality on the results of diagnostic meta-analyses. Large data sets of well-reported primary studies are needed to address this question. Without significant improvements in the completeness of reporting of primary studies, progress in this area will be limited