Diabetes and tuberculosis: the impact of the diabetes epidemic on tuberculosis incidence.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and in these countries diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly. Diabetes increases the risk of TB. Our aim was to assess the potential impact of diabetes as a risk factor for incident pulmonary tuberculosis, using India as an example. METHODS: We constructed an epidemiological model using data on tuberculosis incidence, diabetes prevalence, population structure, and relative risk of tuberculosis associated with diabetes. We evaluated the contribution made by diabetes to both tuberculosis incidence, and to the difference between tuberculosis incidence in urban and rural areas. RESULTS: In India in 2000 there were an estimated 20.7 million adults with diabetes, and 900,000 incident adult cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. Our calculations suggest that diabetes accounts for 14.8% (uncertainty range 7.1% to 23.8%) of pulmonary tuberculosis and 20.2% (8.3% to 41.9%) of smear-positive (i.e. infectious) tuberculosis. We estimate that the increased diabetes prevalence in urban areas is associated with a 15.2% greater smear-positive tuberculosis incidence in urban than rural areas - over a fifth of the estimated total difference. CONCLUSION: Diabetes makes a substantial contribution to the burden of incident tuberculosis in India, and the association is particularly strong for the infectious form of tuberculosis. The current diabetes epidemic may lead to a resurgence of tuberculosis in endemic regions, especially in urban areas. This potentially carries a risk of global spread with serious implications for tuberculosis control and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Development of a target product profile for a point-of-care cardiometabolic device

INTRODUCTION: Multi-parameter diagnostic devices can simplify cardiometabolic disease diagnosis. However, existing devices may not be suitable for use in low-resource settings, where the burden of non-communicable diseases is high. Here we describe the development of a target product profile (TPP) for a point-of-care multi-parameter device for detection of biomarkers for cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders, including diabetes, in primary care settings in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: A draft TPP developed by an expert group was reviewed through an online survey and semi-structured expert interviews to identify device characteristics requiring refinement. The draft TPP included 41 characteristics with minimal and optimal requirements; characteristics with an agreement level for either requirement of ≤ 85% in either the survey or among interviewees were further discussed by the expert group and amended as appropriate. RESULTS: Twenty people responded to the online survey and 18 experts participated in the interviews. Twenty-two characteristics had an agreement level of ≤ 85% in either the online survey or interviews. The final TPP defines the device as intended to be used for basic diagnosis and management of cardiometabolic disorders (lipids, glucose, HbA1c, and creatinine) as minimal requirement, and offering an expanded test menu for wider cardiometabolic disease management as optimal requirement. To be suitable, the device should be intended for level 1 healthcare settings or lower, used by minimally trained healthcare workers and allow testing using self-contained cartridges or strips without the need for additional reagents. Throughput should be one sample at a time in a single or multi-analyte cartridge, or optimally enable testing of several samples and analytes in parallel with random access. CONCLUSION: This TPP will inform developers of cardiometabolic multi-parameter devices for LMIC settings, and will support decision makers in the evaluation of existing and future devices

Nutrition, Diabetes and Tuberculosis in the Epidemiological Transition

BACKGROUND: Diabetes prevalence and body mass index reflect the nutritional profile of populations but have opposing effects on tuberculosis risk. Interactions between diabetes and BMI could help or hinder TB control in growing, aging, urbanizing populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled data describing temporal changes in BMI, diabetes prevalence and population age structure in rural and urban areas for men and women in countries with high (India) and low (Rep. Korea) TB burdens. Using published data on the risks of TB associated with these factors, we calculated expected changes in TB incidence between 1998 and 2008. In India, TB incidence cases would have increased (28% from 1.7 m to 2.1 m) faster than population size (22%) because of adverse effects of aging, urbanization, changing BMI and rising diabetes prevalence, generating an increase in TB incidence per capita of 5.5% in 10 years. In India, general nutritional improvements were offset by a fall in BMI among the majority of men who live in rural areas. The growing prevalence of diabetes in India increased the annual number of TB cases in people with diabetes by 46% between 1998 and 2008. In Korea, by contrast, the number of TB cases increased more slowly (6.1% from 40,200 to 42,800) than population size (14%) because of positive effects of urbanization, increasing BMI and falling diabetes prevalence. Consequently, TB incidence per capita fell by 7.8% in 10 years. Rapid population aging was the most significant adverse effect in Korea. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional and demographic changes had stronger adverse effects on TB in high-incidence India than in lower-incidence Korea. The unfavourable effects in both countries can be overcome by early drug treatment but, if left unchecked, could lead to an accelerating rise in TB incidence. The prevention and management of risk factors for TB would reinforce TB control by chemotherapy

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: contributions from risk factor changes and treatments

Background Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. Methods Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995–97; 2006–09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. Results Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1–2 kg/m2 and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%–50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. Discussion CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically

Nutrition, diabetes and tuberculosis in the epidemiological transition

The original publication is available at http:/www.plosone.orgBackground: Diabetes prevalence and body mass index reflect the nutritional profile of populations but have opposing effects on tuberculosis risk. Interactions between diabetes and BMI could help or hinder TB control in growing, aging, urbanizing populations. Methods and Findings: We compiled data describing temporal changes in BMI, diabetes prevalence and population age structure in rural and urban areas for men and women in countries with high (India) and low (Rep. Korea) TB burdens. Using published data on the risks of TB associated with these factors, we calculated expected changes in TB incidence between 1998 and 2008. In India, TB incidence cases would have increased (28% from 1.7 m to 2.1 m) faster than population size (22%) because of adverse effects of aging, urbanization, changing BMI and rising diabetes prevalence, generating an increase in TB incidence per capita of 5.5% in 10 years. In India, general nutritional improvements were offset by a fall in BMI among the majority of men who live in rural areas. The growing prevalence of diabetes in India increased the annual number of TB cases in people with diabetes by 46% between 1998 and 2008. In Korea, by contrast, the number of TB cases increased more slowly (6.1% from 40,200 to 42,800) than population size (14%) because of positive effects of urbanization, increasing BMI and falling diabetes prevalence. Consequently, TB incidence per capita fell by 7.8% in 10 years. Rapid population aging was the most significant adverse effect in Korea. Conclusions: Nutritional and demographic changes had stronger adverse effects on TB in high-incidence India than in lower-incidence Korea. The unfavourable effects in both countries can be overcome by early drug treatment but, if left unchecked, could lead to an accelerating rise in TB incidence. The prevention and management of risk factors for TB would reinforce TB control by chemotherapy. © 2011 Dye et al

Type 1 diabetes in 2017: global estimates of incident and prevalent cases in children and adults

Aims/hypothesis: Data on type 1 diabetes incidence and prevalence are limited, particularly for adults. This study aims to estimate global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in 2017 for all age groups, by country and areas defined by income and region.Methods: Incidence rates of type 1 diabetes in children (available from 94 countries) from the IDF Atlas were used and extrapolated to countries without data. Age-specific incidence rates in adults (only known across full age range for fewer than ten countries) were obtained by applying scaling ratios for each adult age group relative to the incidence rate in children. Age-specific incidence rates were applied to population estimates to obtain incident case numbers. Duration of diabetes was estimated from available data and adjusted using differences in childhood mortality rate between countries from United Nations demographic data. Prevalent case numbers were derived by modelling the relationship between prevalence, incidence and disease duration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to quantify the impact of alternative assumptions and model inputs.Results: Global numbers of incident and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes were estimated to be 234,710 and 9,004,610, respectively, in 2017. High-income countries, with 17% of the global population, accounted for 49% of global incident cases and 52% of prevalent cases. Asia, which has the largest proportion of the world's population (60%), had the largest number of incident (32%) and prevalent (31%) cases of type 1 diabetes. Globally, 6%, 35%, 43% and 16% of prevalent cases were in the age groups 0-14, 15-39, 40-64 and 65+ years, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the estimates could deviate by ±15%.Conclusions/interpretation: Globally, type 1 diabetes represents about 2% of the estimated total cases of diabetes, ranging from less than 1% in certain Pacific countries to more than 15% in Northern European populations in 2017. This study provides information for the development of healthcare and policy approaches to manage type 1 diabetes. The estimates need further validation due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods.</p

Defining the research agenda to reduce the joint burden of disease from diabetes mellitus and tuberculosis.

The steadily growing epidemic of diabetes mellitus poses a threat for global tuberculosis (TB) control. Previous studies have identified an important association between diabetes mellitus and TB. However, these studies have limitations: very few were carried out in low-income countries, with none in Africa, raising uncertainty about the strength of the diabetes mellitus-TB association in these settings, and many critical questions remain unanswered. An expert meeting was held in November 2009 to discuss where there was sufficient evidence to make firm recommendations about joint management of both diseases, to address research gaps and to develop a research agenda. Ten key research questions were identified, of which 4 were selected as high priority: (i) whether, when and how to screen for TB in patients with diabetes mellitus and vice versa; (ii) the impact of diabetes mellitus and non-diabetes mellitus hyperglycaemia on TB treatment outcomes and deaths, and the development of strategies to improve outcomes; (iii) implementation and evaluation of the tuberculosis 'DOTS' model for diabetes mellitus management; and (iv) the development and evaluation of better point-of-care diagnostic and monitoring tests, including measurements of blood glucose and glycated haemoglobin A(1c) (HbA(1c)) for patients with diabetes mellitus. Implementation of this research agenda will benefit the control of both diseases