When Pershing\u27s Men Go Marching Into Picardy

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/2954/thumbnail.jp

Exchange rates and fundamentals: a generalization

Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than twenty years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out-of-sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard present value model (PVM) because it predicts random walk exchange rate dynamics if the discount factor approaches one and fundamentals have a unit root. This paper generalizes the Engel and West hypothesis to the larger class of open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The Engel and West hypothesis is shown to hold for a canonical open economy DSGE model. We show that all the predictions of the standard PVM carry over to the DSGE PVM. The DSGE PVM also yields unobserved components (UC) models that we estimate using Bayesian methods and a quarterly Canadian-U.S. sample. Bayesian model evaluation reveals that the data support a UC model that calibrates the discount factor to one, implying the Canadian dollar–U.S. dollar exchange rate is a random walk dominated by permanent cross-country monetary and productivity shocks.Foreign exchange rates

The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects

Tests of the present-value model of the current account are frequently rejected by the data. Standard explanations rely on the "usual suspects" of nonseparable preferences, shocks to fiscal policy and the world real interest rate, and imperfect international capital mobility. The authors confirm these rejections on postwar Canadian data, then investigate their source by calibrating and simulating alternative versions of a small open economy, real business cycle model. Monte Carlo experiments reveal that, although each of the suspects matters in some way, a "canonical" RBC model moves closest to the data when it features exogenous world real interest rate shocks.Balance of payments ; International finance ; Econometric models

The determination of technology coefficients in applications of leontief input-output to accounts of a single firm

In particular, the derivation from industrial accounts of technology coefficients which are essential to such models is considered from the viewpoints of (1) the apporpriateness of underlying assumptions in the single industry environment, and (2) the means of acquiring these coefficients from industrial accounts

Meine Kleine Barke : My Little Boat

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-ps/1835/thumbnail.jp

Dear, When I Look : Wenn ich in deine Augen seh\u27

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/1289/thumbnail.jp

The Star : A Fragment From Plato

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-vp/6046/thumbnail.jp

Proceedings of the 23rd annual Central Plains irrigation conference

Presented at Proceedings of the 23rd annual Central Plains irrigation conference held in Burlington, Colorado on February 22-23, 2011.Includes bibliographical references

Wind song: song with piano accompaniment

https://digitalcommons.ithaca.edu/sheetmusic/1171/thumbnail.jp