Conditional Sampling for Max-Stable Processes with a Mixed Moving Maxima Representation

This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using the Poisson point process structure of such processes. For explicit calculations we restrict ourselves to the one-dimensional case and use a finite number of shape functions satisfying some regularity conditions. For more general shape functions approximation techniques are presented. Our algorithm is applied to the Smith process and the Brown-Resnick process. Finally, we compare our computational results to other approaches. Here, the algorithm for Gaussian processes with transformed marginals turns out to be surprisingly competitive.Comment: 35 pages; version accepted for publication in Extremes. The final publication is available at http://link.springer.co

Conformational effects on the Circular Dichroism of Human Carbonic Anhydrase II: a multilevel computational study

Circular Dichroism (CD) spectroscopy is a powerful method for investigating conformational changes in proteins and therefore has numerous applications in structural and molecular biology. Here a computational investigation of the CD spectrum of the Human Carbonic Anhydrase II (HCAII), with main focus on the near-UV CD spectra of the wild-type enzyme and it seven tryptophan mutant forms, is presented and compared to experimental studies. Multilevel computational methods (Molecular Dynamics, Semiempirical Quantum Mechanics, Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory) were applied in order to gain insight into the mechanisms of interaction between the aromatic chromophores within the protein environment and understand how the conformational flexibility of the protein influences these mechanisms. The analysis suggests that combining CD semi empirical calculations, crystal structures and molecular dynamics (MD) could help in achieving a better agreement between the computed and experimental protein spectra and provide some unique insight into the dynamic nature of the mechanisms of chromophore interactions

The Link between Dengue Incidence and El Niño Southern Oscillation

Pejman Rohani discusses a new study that examined the dynamic relationship between climate variables and dengue incidence in Thailand, Mexico, and Puerto Rico

The medium-term sustainability of organisational innovations in the national health service

Background: There is a growing recognition of the importance of introducing new ways of working into the UK's National Health Service (NHS) and other health systems, in order to ensure that patient care is provided as effectively and efficiently as possible. Researchers have examined the challenges of introducing new ways of working-'organisational innovations'-into complex organisations such as the NHS, and this has given rise to a much better understanding of how this takes place-and why seemingly good ideas do not always result in changes in practice. However, there has been less research on the medium-and longer-term outcomes for organisational innovations and on the question of how new ways of working, introduced by frontline clinicians and managers, are sustained and become established in day-to-day practice. Clearly, this question of sustainability is crucial if the gains in patient care that derive from organisational innovations are to be maintained, rather than lost to what the NHS Institute has called the 'improvement-evaporation effect'. Methods: The study will involve research in four case-study sites around England, each of which was successful in sustaining its new model of service provision beyond an initial period of pilot funding for new genetics services provided by the Department of Health. Building on findings relating to the introduction and sustainability of these services already gained from an earlier study, the research will use qualitative methods-in-depth interviews, observation of key meetings, and analysis of relevant documents-to understand the longer-term challenges involved in each case and how these were surmounted. The research will provide lessons for those seeking to sustain their own organisational innovations in wide-ranging clinical areas and for those designing the systems and organisations that make up the NHS, to make them more receptive contexts for the sustainment of innovation. Discussion: Through comparison and contrast across four sites, each involving different organisational innovations, different forms of leadership, and different organisational contexts to contend with, the findings of the study will have wide relevance. The research will produce outputs that are useful for managers and clinicians responsible for organisational innovation, policy makers and senior managers, and academics

Precursors to social and communication difficulties in infants at-risk for autism: gaze following and attentional engagement

Whilst joint attention (JA) impairments in autism have been widely studied, little is known about the early development of gaze following, a precursor to establishing JA. We employed eye-tracking to record gaze following longitudinally in infants with and without a family history of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) at 7 and 13 months. No group difference was found between at-risk and low-risk infants in gaze following behaviour at either age. However, despite following gaze successfully at 13 months, at-risk infants with later emerging socio-communication difficulties (both those with ASD and atypical development at 36 months of age) allocated less attention to the congruent object compared to typically developing at-risk siblings and low-risk controls. The findings suggest that the subtle emergence of difficulties in JA in infancy may be related to ASD and other atypical outcomes

Health Centre Surveys as a Potential Tool for Monitoring Malaria Epidemiology by Area and over Time

BACKGROUND: Presently, many malaria control programmes use health facility data to evaluate the impact of their interventions. Facility-based malaria data, although useful, have problems with completeness, validity and representativeness and reliance on routinely collected health facility data might undermine demonstration of the magnitude of the impact of the recent scaleups of malaria interventions. To determine whether carefully conducted health centre surveys can be reliable means of monitoring area specific malaria epidemiology, we have compared malaria specific indices obtained from surveys in health centres with indices obtained from cross-sectional surveys conducted in their catchment communities. METHODS: A series of age stratified, seasonal, cross-sectional surveys were conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in 2008 and during the following dry season in 2009 in six ecologically diverse areas in The Gambia. Participants were patients who attended the health centres plus a representative sample from the catchment villages of these health facilities. Parasitaemia, anaemia, attributable proportion of fever and anti-MSP1-(19) antibody seroprevalence were compared in the health facility attendees and community participants. RESULTS: A total of 16,230 subjects completed the study; approximately half participated in the health centre surveys and half in the wet season surveys. Data from both the health centre and community surveys showed that malaria endemicity in The Gambia is now low, heterogeneous and seasonal. In the wet season, parasitaemia, seroprevalence and fever prevalence were higher in subjects seen in the health centres than in the community surveys. Age patterns of parasitaemia, attributable proportions of fever and seroprevalence rates were similar in subjects who participated in the community and health centre surveys. CONCLUSION: Health centre surveys have potential as a surveillance tool for evaluating area specific malaria control activities and for monitoring changes in local malaria epidemiology over time

Characteristics of starch-based films plasticised by glycerol and by the ionic liquid 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate: A comparative study

This paper reports the plasticisation effect of the ionic liquid, 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate ([Emim][OAc]), as compared with the traditionally used plasticiser, glycerol, on the characteristics of starch-based films. For minimising the additional effect of processing, a simple compression moulding process (which involves minimal shear) was used for preparation of starch-based films. The results show that [Emim][OAc] was favourable for plasticisation, i.e., disruption of starch granules (by scanning electron microscopy), and could result in a more amorphous structure in the starch-based materials (by X-ray diffraction and dynamic mechanical analysis). 13C CP/MAS and SPE/MAS NMR spectroscopy revealed that not only was the crystallinity reduced by [Emim][OAc], but also the amorphous starch present was plasticised to a more mobile form as indicated by the appearance of amorphous starch in the SPE/MAS spectrum. Mechanical results illustrate that, when either glycerol or [Emim][OAc] was used, a higher plasticiser content could contribute to higher flexibility. In spite of the accelerated thermal degradation of starch by [Emim][OAc] as shown by thermogravimetric analysis, the biodegradation study revealed the antimicrobial effect of [Emim][OAc] on the starch-based materials. Considering the high-amylose starch used here which is typically difficult to gelatinise in a traditional plasticiser (water and/or glycerol), [Emim][OAc] is demonstrated to be a promising plasticiser for starch to develop “green” flexible antimicrobial materials for novel applications