State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines

The developments in regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been reviewed with a view to identify future directions for modelling in the Philippines. It is observed that regional CGE models have been used extensively in the analysis of national and regional issues. These models can be divided into three classes: region-specific, bottomup and “partial†models. This paper asserts that existing models of the Philippines generally belong to the third class. This implies that there is very little scope for evaluating region-specific issues in the Philippines.Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development,

Future scenarios of fish supply and demand for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh: An analysis with the AsiaFish model

Bangladesh has made significant progress in social and economic development in recent years, but micronutrient deficiencies and poor dietary diversity remain a significant challenge. This paper developed five scenarios to explore futures of fish supply-demand in Bangladesh using the AsiaFish model, with special emphasis on the role of fish in macronutrient and micronutrient supply to address the nation's malnutrition and nutrition security challenges. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario followed historical trends for exogenous variables used in the model. The four alternative scenarios explored: the implications of increase productivity of farmed tilapia, pangasius and rohu carp (AS1); improvements in the quality of feeds (AS2); disease outbreak in farmed shrimps and prawns (AS3); and climate change impacts (AS4). The BAU scenario indicates that aquaculture growth will be a prominent contribution to increasing total fish supply and demand and fish exports to 2040. Apart from the scenarios that are favourable to aquaculture sector development, other alternative scenarios highlighted the lower growth rate of capture fisheries and aquaculture compared to BAU, resulting in declining in per capita fish consumption, fish exports and nutrient supply from fish as a consequence. Increased availability of aquaculture fish can slightly compensate for the lower growth of capture fisheries in term of their nutrition quality and dietary diversity, particularly for poor consumers. Policies towards sustaining fisheries and a nutrition-sensitive approach to aquaculture is recommended as both capture fisheries and aquaculture are essential for sustaining healthy and nutritious diets in Bangladesh

XIPE: the x-ray imaging polarimetry explorer

XIPE, the X-ray Imaging Polarimetry Explorer, is a mission dedicated to X-ray Astronomy. At the time of writing XIPE is in a competitive phase A as fourth medium size mission of ESA (M4). It promises to reopen the polarimetry window in high energy Astrophysics after more than 4 decades thanks to a detector that efficiently exploits the photoelectric effect and to X-ray optics with large effective area. XIPE uniqueness is time-spectrally-spatially- resolved X-ray polarimetry as a breakthrough in high energy astrophysics and fundamental physics. Indeed the payload consists of three Gas Pixel Detectors at the focus of three X-ray optics with a total effective area larger than one XMM mirror but with a low weight. The payload is compatible with the fairing of the Vega launcher. XIPE is designed as an observatory for X-ray astronomers with 75 % of the time dedicated to a Guest Observer competitive program and it is organized as a consortium across Europe with main contributions from Italy, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, Poland, Sweden

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

State-of-the-Art in Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modelling with a Case Study of the Philippines

The developments in regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been reviewed with a view to identify future directions for modelling in the Philippines. It is observed that regional CGE models have been used extensively in the analysis of national and regional issues. These models can be divided into three classes: region-specific, bottomup and “partial” models. This paper asserts that existing models of the Philippines generally belong to the third class. This implies that there is very little scope for evaluating region-specific issues in the Philippines

Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines

This paper examines the economy-wide impacts of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) on the Philippine economy. In particular, it uses an applied general equilibrium model to determine the effects of alternative scenarios on aggregate and sectoral outputs, consumption, and international trade. The paper also compares the FTAAP to reforms which are confined to the ASEAN plus 3 and to a broader set of tariff changes that covers all the trading partners of the Philippines. The findings of the paper are as follows. First, the FTAAP is likely to benefit the Philippines in the form of higher aggregate output and employment. However, such gains are not projected for all industries as the simulation results indicate declines in the outputs of activities related to rice and corn. Second, the benefits from the FTAAP are likely to come more from the removal of tariffs on nonagriculture products. Finally, the aggregate gains from the FTAAP are larger than an arrangement which is limited to ASEAN plus 3 countries. However, the differences in the impacts do not appear to be very large.applied general equilibrium models, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, free trade area, international trade, Philippines

Impacts of the Free Trade Area of the Pacific (FTAAP) on Production, Consumption, and Trade of the Philippines

This paper examines the economy-wide impacts of a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) on the Philippine economy. In particular, it uses an applied general equilibrium model to determine the effects of alternative scenarios on aggregate and sectoral outputs, consumption, and international trade. The paper also compares the FTAAP to reforms which are confined to the ASEAN plus 3 and to a broader set of tariff changes that covers all the trading partners of the Philippines. The findings of the paper are as follows. First, the FTAAP is likely to benefit the Philippines in the form of higher aggregate output and employment. However, such gains are not projected for all industries as the simulation results indicate declines in the outputs of activities related to rice and corn. Second, the benefits from the FTAAP are likely to come more from the removal of tariffs on nonagriculture products. Finally, the aggregate gains from the FTAAP are larger than an arrangement which is limited to ASEAN plus 3 countries. However, the differences in the impacts do not appear to be very large.applied general equilibrium models, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, free trade area, international trade, Philippines

The Impact of a Philippine-US FTA: The Case of Philippine Agriculture

The paper examines the effect of an RP-US FTA in the Philippine agricultural sector. Using an Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) Model, it analyzes the impact of the removal of tariffs on imports from the US on the various commodities in agriculture and food processing. The simulation results suggest that most of the commodities in these sectors experience gains in output and employment following the removal of Philippine tariffs on its imports from the U.S. It also shows that the benefits of agriculture and food processing from the FTA are larger with a comprehensive removal of tariffs.economic/development modelling, Philippine agriculture production, consumption and employment, foreign and domestic markets, tariff change and removal

The Impact of a Philippine-US FTA : The Case of Philippine Agriculture

The paper examines the effect of an RP-US FTA in the Philippine agricultural sector. Using an Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) Model, it analyzes the impact of the removal of tariffs on imports from the US on the various commodities in agriculture and food processing. The simulation results suggest that most of the commodities in these sectors experience gains in output and employment following the removal of Philippine tariffs on its imports from the U.S. It also shows that the benefits of agriculture and food processing from the FTA are larger with a comprehensive removal of tariffs.Philippine agriculture production, consumption and employment, foreign and domestic markets, tariff change and removal, economic modelling