Time series analysis and forecasting of the number of canine rabies confirmed cases in Thailand based on national-level surveillance data

IntroductionRabies, a deadly zoonotic viral disease, accounts for over 50,000 fatalities globally each year. This disease predominantly plagues developing nations, with Thailand being no exception. In the current global landscape, concerted efforts are being mobilized to curb human mortalities attributed to animal-transmitted rabies. For strategic allocation and optimization of resources, sophisticated and accurate forecasting of rabies incidents is imperative. This research aims to determine temporal patterns, and seasonal fluctuations, and project the incidence of canine rabies throughout Thailand, using various time series techniques.MethodsMonthly total laboratory-confirmed rabies cases data from January 2013 to December 2022 (full dataset) were split into the training dataset (January 2013 to December 2021) and the test dataset (January to December 2022). Time series models including Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR), Error Trend Seasonality (ETS), the Trigonometric Exponential Smoothing State-Space Model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) were used to analyze the training dataset and the full dataset. The forecast values obtained from the time series models applied to the training dataset were compared with the actual values from the test dataset to determine their predictive performance. Furthermore, the forecast projections from January 2023 to December 2025 were generated from models applied to the full dataset.ResultsThe findings revealed a total of 4,678 confirmed canine rabies cases during the study duration, with apparent seasonality in the data. Among the models tested with the test dataset, TBATS exhibited superior predictive accuracy, closely trailed by the SARIMA model. Based on the full dataset, TBATS projections suggest an annual average of approximately 285 canine rabies cases for the years 2023 to 2025, translating to a monthly average of 23 cases (range: 18–30). In contrast, SARIMA projections averaged 277 cases annually (range: 208–214).DiscussionThis research offers a new perspective on disease forecasting through advanced time series methodologies. The results should be taken into consideration when planning and conducting rabies surveillance, prevention, and control activities

Making Different Differences: Representation and Rights in Sexuality Activism

This paper argues that current iterations of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) rights are limited by an overreliance on particular representations of sexuality, in which homosexuality is defined negatively through a binary of homosexual/heterosexual. The limits of these representations are explored in order to unpick the possibility of engaging in a form of sexuality politics that is grounded in difference rather than in sameness or opposition. The paper seeks to respond to Braidotti’s call for an “affirmative politics” that is open to forms of creative, future-oriented action and that might serve to answer some of the more common criticisms of current LGBTI rights activism

26th Annual Computational Neuroscience Meeting (CNS*2017): Part 3 - Meeting Abstracts - Antwerp, Belgium. 15–20 July 2017

This work was produced as part of the activities of FAPESP Research,\ud Disseminations and Innovation Center for Neuromathematics (grant\ud 2013/07699-0, S. Paulo Research Foundation). NLK is supported by a\ud FAPESP postdoctoral fellowship (grant 2016/03855-5). ACR is partially\ud supported by a CNPq fellowship (grant 306251/2014-0)

Estimating the Transmission Kernel for Lumpy Skin Disease Virus from Data on Outbreaks in Thailand in 2021

Nationwide outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) were observed in Thailand in 2021. A better understanding of its disease transmission is crucial. This study utilized a kernel-based approach to characterize the transmission of LSD between cattle herds. Outbreak data from the Khon Kaen and Lamphun provinces in Thailand were used to estimate transmission kernels for each province. The results showed that the majority of herd-to-herd transmission occurs over short distances. For Khon Kaen, the median transmission distance from the donor herd was estimated to be between 0.3 and 0.8 km, while for Lamphun, it ranged from 0.2 to 0.6 km. The results imply the critical role that insects may play as vectors in the transmission of LSD within the two study areas. This is the first study to estimate transmission kernels from data on LSD outbreaks in Thailand. The findings from this study offer valuable insights into the spatial transmission of this disease, which will be useful in developing prevention and control strategies

Image_1_The impact of mass vaccination policy and control measures on lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand: insights from a Bayesian structural time series analysis.DOCX

IntroductionIn 2021, Thailand reported the highest incidence of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Asia. In response to the widespread outbreaks in cattle herds, the government's livestock authorities initiated comprehensive intervention measures, encompassing control strategies and a national vaccination program. Yet, the efficacy of these interventions remained unevaluated. This research sought to assess the nationwide intervention's impact on the incidence of new LSD cases through causal impact analysis.MethodsData on weekly new LSD cases in Thailand from March to September 2021 was analyzed. The Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) analysis was employed to evaluate the causal relationship between new LSD cases in the pre-intervention phase (prior to the vaccination campaign) and the post-intervention phase (following the vaccination campaign). The assessment involved two distinct scenarios, each determined by the estimated effective intervention dates. In both scenarios, a consistent decline in new LSD cases was observed after the mass vaccination initiative, while other control measures such as the restriction of animal movement, insect control, and the enhancement of the active surveillance approach remained operational throughout the pre-intervention and the post-intervention phases.Results and discussionAccording to the relative effect results obtained from scenario A and B, it was observed that the incidence of LSD cases exhibited reductions of 119% (95% Credible interval [CrI]: −121%, −38%) and 78% (95% CrI: −126, −41%), respectively. The BSTS results underscored the significant influence of these interventions, with a Bayesian one-sided tail-area probability of p < 0.05. This model-based study provides insight into the application of BSTS in evaluating the impact of nationwide LSD vaccination based on the national-level data. The present study is groundbreaking in two respects: it is the first study to quantify the causal effects of a mass vaccination intervention on the LSD outbreak in Thailand, and it stands as the only endeavor of its kind in the Asian context. The insights collected from this study hold potential value for policymakers in Thailand and other countries at risk of LSD outbreaks.</p

Analysis of factors associated with the first lumpy skin disease outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in different regions of Thailand

IntroductionThailand experienced a nationwide outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in 2021, highlighting the need for effective prevention and control strategies. This study aimed to identify herd-level risk factors associated with LSD outbreaks in beef cattle herds across different regions of Thailand.MethodsA case–control study was conducted in upper northeastern, northeastern, and central regions, where face-to-face interviews were conducted with farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable mixed effect logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the factors associated with LSD outbreaks. A total of 489 beef herds, including 161 LSD outbreak herds and 328 non-LSD herds, were investigated.Results and discussionResults showed that 66% of farmers have operated beef herds for more than five years. There were very few animal movements during the outbreak period. None of the cattle had been vaccinated with LSD vaccines. Insects that have the potential to act as vectors for LSD were observed in all herds. Thirty-four percent of farmers have implemented insect control measures. The final mixed effect logistic regression model identified herds operating for more than five years (odds ratio [OR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04–2.53) and the absence of insect control management on the herd (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.29–3.25) to be associated with LSD outbreaks. The implementation of insect-vector control measures in areas at risk of LSD, especially for herds without vaccination against the disease, should be emphasized. This study provides the first report on risk factors for LSD outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in Thailand and offers useful information for the development of LSD prevention and control programs within the country’s context

Image_1_Analysis of factors associated with the first lumpy skin disease outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in different regions of Thailand.pdf

IntroductionThailand experienced a nationwide outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in 2021, highlighting the need for effective prevention and control strategies. This study aimed to identify herd-level risk factors associated with LSD outbreaks in beef cattle herds across different regions of Thailand.MethodsA case–control study was conducted in upper northeastern, northeastern, and central regions, where face-to-face interviews were conducted with farmers using a semi-structured questionnaire. Univariable and multivariable mixed effect logistic regression analyses were employed to determine the factors associated with LSD outbreaks. A total of 489 beef herds, including 161 LSD outbreak herds and 328 non-LSD herds, were investigated.Results and discussionResults showed that 66% of farmers have operated beef herds for more than five years. There were very few animal movements during the outbreak period. None of the cattle had been vaccinated with LSD vaccines. Insects that have the potential to act as vectors for LSD were observed in all herds. Thirty-four percent of farmers have implemented insect control measures. The final mixed effect logistic regression model identified herds operating for more than five years (odds ratio [OR]: 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04–2.53) and the absence of insect control management on the herd (OR: 2.05, 95% CI: 1.29–3.25) to be associated with LSD outbreaks. The implementation of insect-vector control measures in areas at risk of LSD, especially for herds without vaccination against the disease, should be emphasized. This study provides the first report on risk factors for LSD outbreaks in naïve cattle herds in Thailand and offers useful information for the development of LSD prevention and control programs within the country’s context.</p

Awareness, knowledge, attitude, and practices (A-KAP) assessment of the One Health approach in health sciences education webinar series participants in select universities in the Philippines

# Background A three-day One Health training program for undergraduate and graduate students, as well as professionals in One Health-related fields, was conducted by the Philippine One Health University Network (PhilOHUN), in collaboration with the Southeast Asia One Health University Network (SEAOHUN), through a webinar series. To measure the impact of the training on the awareness, knowledge, attitude, and practices (A-KAP) related to the topics covered in the program, this study was conducted. # Methods A quasi-experimental design was employed to evaluate the effect of the One Health training program on the A-KAP of the participants. An online questionnaire developed based on the content of the training modules was administered to the participants before and after the training program. The attendees who accomplished both the pre- and post-training A-KAP assessment questionnaire were included as study participants; of the 225 attendees, 119 respondents qualified. The difference between the pre- and post-training mean A-KAP scores of participants was determined using paired t-test. # Results Findings showed that the Awareness of the participants (P\0.05) after taking part in the training. # Conclusions The significant differences in awareness and knowledge suggest that the training modules contain relevant topics, which were effectively transmitted during the program. For Attitude and Practices, it may be premature to determine the impact of a single activity, although it is expected that these will change over time. Nevertheless, the training program can be used as a springboard for introducing One Health concepts to a wider audience and a continuing initiative to influence the development of appropriate attitudes and practices for current and future One Health practitioners