AN EVALUATION OF RESEARCH NEEDS FOR AGRICULTURAL ECONOMISTS

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Use of cumulative mortality data in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice: observational study

OBJECTIVES: Use of cumulative mortality adjusted for case mix in patients with acute myocardial infarction for early detection of variation in clinical practice. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: 20 hospitals across the former Yorkshire region. PARTICIPANTS: All 2153 consecutive patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction identified during three months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Variable life­adjusted displays showing cumulative differences between observed and expected mortality of patients; expected mortality calculated from risk model based on admission characteristics of age, heart rate, and systolic blood pressure. RESULTS: The performance of two individual hospitals over three months was examined as an example. One, the smallest district hospital in the region, had a series of 30 consecutive patients but had five more deaths than predicted. The variable life­adjusted display showed minimal variation from that predicted for the first 15 patients followed by a run of unexpectedly high mortality. The second example was the main tertiary referral centre for the region, which admitted 188 consecutive patients. The display showed a period of apparently poor performance followed by substantial improvement, where the plot rose steadily from a cumulative net lives saved of - 4 to 7. These variations in patient outcome are unlikely to have been revealed during conventional audit practice. CONCLUSIONS: Variable life­adjusted display has been integrated into surgical care as a graphical display of risk­adjusted survival for individual surgeons or centres. In combination with a simple risk model, it may have a role in monitoring performance and outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Improved Bounds on the Phase Transition for the Hard-Core Model in 2-Dimensions

For the hard-core lattice gas model defined on independent sets weighted by an activity $\lambda$, we study the critical activity $\lambda_c(\mathbb{Z}^2)$ for the uniqueness/non-uniqueness threshold on the 2-dimensional integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^2$. The conjectured value of the critical activity is approximately $3.796$. Until recently, the best lower bound followed from algorithmic results of Weitz (2006). Weitz presented an FPTAS for approximating the partition function for graphs of constant maximum degree $\Delta$ when $\lambda<\lambda_c(\mathbb{T}_\Delta)$ where $\mathbb{T}_\Delta$ is the infinite, regular tree of degree $\Delta$. His result established a certain decay of correlations property called strong spatial mixing (SSM) on $\mathbb{Z}^2$ by proving that SSM holds on its self-avoiding walk tree $T_{\mathrm{saw}}^\sigma(\mathbb{Z}^2)$ where $\sigma=(\sigma_v)_{v\in \mathbb{Z}^2}$ and $\sigma_v$ is an ordering on the neighbors of vertex $v$. As a consequence he obtained that $\lambda_c(\mathbb{Z}^2)\geq\lambda_c( \mathbb{T}_4) = 1.675$. Restrepo et al. (2011) improved Weitz's approach for the particular case of $\mathbb{Z}^2$ and obtained that $\lambda_c(\mathbb{Z}^2)>2.388$. In this paper, we establish an upper bound for this approach, by showing that, for all $\sigma$, SSM does not hold on $T_{\mathrm{saw}}^\sigma(\mathbb{Z}^2)$ when $\lambda>3.4$. We also present a refinement of the approach of Restrepo et al. which improves the lower bound to $\lambda_c(\mathbb{Z}^2)>2.48$.Comment: 19 pages, 1 figure. Polished proofs and examples compared to earlier versio

Simulations of neutron background in a time projection chamber relevant to dark matter searches

Presented here are results of simulations of neutron background performed for a time projection chamber acting as a particle dark matter detector in an underground laboratory. The investigated background includes neutrons from rock and detector components, generated via spontaneous fission and (alpha, n) reactions, as well as those due to cosmic-ray muons. Neutrons were propagated to the sensitive volume of the detector and the nuclear recoil spectra were calculated. Methods of neutron background suppression were also examined and limitations to the sensitivity of a gaseous dark matter detector are discussed. Results indicate that neutrons should not limit sensitivity to WIMP-nucleon interactions down to a level of (1 - 3) x 10^{-8} pb in a 10 kg detector.Comment: 27 pages (total, including 3 tables and 11 figures). Accepted for publication in Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research - Section

Neutron background in large-scale xenon detectors for dark matter searches

Simulations of the neutron background for future large-scale particle dark matter detectors are presented. Neutrons were generated in rock and detector elements via spontaneous fission and (alpha,n) reactions, and by cosmic-ray muons. The simulation techniques and results are discussed in the context of the expected sensitivity of a generic liquid xenon dark matter detector. Methods of neutron background suppression are investigated. A sensitivity of $10^{-9}-10^{-10}$ pb to WIMP-nucleon interactions can be achieved by a tonne-scale detector.Comment: 35 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physic

Neutral Plasma Oscillations at Zero Temperature

We use cold plasma theory to calculate the response of an ultracold neutral plasma to an applied rf field. The free oscillation of the system has a continuous spectrum and an associated damped quasimode. We show that this quasimode dominates the driven response. We use this model to simulate plasma oscillations in an expanding ultracold neutral plasma, providing insights into the assumptions used to interpret experimental data [Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 318 (2000)].Comment: 4.3 pages, including 3 figure

Projections of multi-morbidity in the older population in England to 2035: estimates from the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model

Background models projecting future disease burden have focussed on one or two diseases. Little is known on how risk factors of younger cohorts will play out in the future burden of multi-morbidity (two or more concurrent long-term conditions).This work forms part of the MODEM project (A comprehensive approach to MODelling outcome and costs impacts of interventions for DEMentia), funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (Grant number ES/L001896/1). C.J.’s salary was funded by the AXA Research Fund from 2010 to 2015. C.J. and A.K. also received funding for travel from the Australian Research Council funded Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR) project (2014–2017) on which C.J. was an international partner