The tyranny of distance and the gravity of resources

To what extent does geography remain an important determinant of comparative advantage and factor incomes in resource markets? We estimate gravity models for resources and find that some minerals and fuels, particularly Iron Ore and Gas, do have very high elasticities of trade with respect to distance. To assess the implications of this we then consider a simple counterfactual where location advantages are eliminated. We find that for a few countries, including Australia and New Zealand, distance barriers have a large impact of their market share

Does globalisation affect crime? theory and evidence

Globalization skeptics argue that trade liberalization has high social costs, including an increase in expropriative behavior such as civil-conflict, coercion of labor and crime. We show that a theoretical relationship between trade and expropriation exists, but the sign differs for developed and developing economies. We verify this empirically using data on crime rates. Specifically we find trade liberalization,as measured by both higher openness and lower import duty rates, tends to increase burglaries and theft in very labor abundant countries. For other countries, however,we find that trade liberalization has either a small negative effect on crime,or no effect, depending on the country’s capital abundance

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies

Refining the accuracy of validated target identification through coding variant fine-mapping in type 2 diabetes.

We aggregated coding variant data for 81,412 type 2 diabetes cases and 370,832 controls of diverse ancestry, identifying 40 coding variant association signals (P < 2.2 × 10-7); of these, 16 map outside known risk-associated loci. We make two important observations. First, only five of these signals are driven by low-frequency variants: even for these, effect sizes are modest (odds ratio ≤1.29). Second, when we used large-scale genome-wide association data to fine-map the associated variants in their regional context, accounting for the global enrichment of complex trait associations in coding sequence, compelling evidence for coding variant causality was obtained for only 16 signals. At 13 others, the associated coding variants clearly represent 'false leads' with potential to generate erroneous mechanistic inference. Coding variant associations offer a direct route to biological insight for complex diseases and identification of validated therapeutic targets; however, appropriate mechanistic inference requires careful specification of their causal contribution to disease predisposition

Do high-protein diets have the potential to reduce gut barrier function in a sex-dependent manner?

Purpose Impaired gut barrier function is associated with systemic inflammation and many chronic diseases. Undigested dietary proteins are fermented in the colon by the gut microbiota which produces nitrogenous metabolites shown to reduce barrier function in vitro. With growing evidence of sex-based differences in gut microbiotas, we determined whether there were sex by dietary protein interactions which could differentially impact barrier function via microbiota modification. Methods Fermentation systems were inoculated with faeces from healthy males (n=5) and females (n=5) and supplemented with 0.9 g of non-hydrolysed proteins sourced from whey, fish, milk, soya, egg, pea, or mycoprotein. Microbial populations were quantified using fluorescence in situ hybridisation with flow cytometry. Metabolite concentrations were analysed using gas chromatography, solid phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and ELISA. Results Increased protein availability resulted in increased proteolytic Bacteroides spp (p<0.01) and Clostridium coccoides (p<0.01), along with increased phenol (p<0.01), p-cresol (p<0.01), indole (p=0.018) and ammonia (p<0.01), varying by protein type. Counts of Clostridium cluster IX (p=0.03) and concentration of p-cresol (p=0.025) increased in males, while females produced more ammonia (p=0.02), irrespective of protein type. Further, we observed significant sex-protein interactions affecting bacterial populations and metabolites (p<0.005). Conclusions Our findings suggest that protein fermentation by the gut microbiota in vitro is influenced by both protein source and the donor’s sex. Should these results be confirmed through human studies, they could have major implications for developing dietary recommendations tailored by sex to prevent chronic illnesses