A response to “Likelihood ratio as weight of evidence: a closer look” by Lund and Iyer

Recently, Lund and Iyer (L&I) raised an argument regarding the use of likelihood ratios in court. In our view, their argument is based on a lack of understanding of the paradigm. L&I argue that the decision maker should not accept the expert’s likelihood ratio without further consideration. This is agreed by all parties. In normal practice, there is often considerable and proper exploration in court of the basis for any probabilistic statement. We conclude that L&I argue against a practice that does not exist and which no one advocates. Further we conclude that the most informative summary of evidential weight is the likelihood ratio. We state that this is the summary that should be presented to a court in every scientific assessment of evidential weight with supporting information about how it was constructed and on what it was based

Darcin: a male pheromone that stimulates female memory and sexual attraction to an individual male's odour

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Among invertebrates, specific pheromones elicit inherent (fixed) behavioural responses to coordinate social behaviours such as sexual recognition and attraction. By contrast, the much more complex social odours of mammals provide a broad range of information about the individual owner and stimulate individual-specific responses that are modulated by learning. How do mammals use such odours to coordinate important social interactions such as sexual attraction while allowing for individual-specific choice? We hypothesized that male mouse urine contains a specific pheromonal component that invokes inherent sexual attraction to the scent and which also stimulates female memory and conditions sexual attraction to the airborne odours of an individual scent owner associated with this pheromone.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using wild-stock house mice to ensure natural responses that generalize across individual genomes, we identify a single atypical male-specific major urinary protein (MUP) of mass 18893Da that invokes a female's inherent sexual attraction to male compared to female urinary scent. Attraction to this protein pheromone, which we named darcin, was as strong as the attraction to intact male urine. Importantly, contact with darcin also stimulated a strong learned attraction to the associated airborne urinary odour of an individual male, such that, subsequently, females were attracted to the airborne scent of that specific individual but not to that of other males.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This involatile protein is a mammalian male sex pheromone that stimulates a flexible response to individual-specific odours through associative learning and memory, allowing female sexual attraction to be inherent but selective towards particular males. This 'darcin effect' offers a new system to investigate the neural basis of individual-specific memories in the brain and give new insights into the regulation of behaviour in complex social mammals.</p> <p>See associated Commentary <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/71</url></p

Dynamic instability of the major urinary protein gene family revealed by genomic and phenotypic comparisons between C57 and 129 strain mice

Targeted sequencing, manual genome annotation, phylogenetic analysis and mass spectrometry were used to characterise major urinary proteins (MUPs) and the Mup clusters of two strains of inbred mice

Statistical challenges in assessing potential efficacy of complex interventions in pilot or feasibility studies

Early phase trials of complex interventions currently focus on assessing the feasibility of a large RCT and on conducting pilot work. Assessing the efficacy of the proposed intervention is generally discouraged, due to concerns of underpowered hypothesis testing. In contrast, early assessment of efficacy is common for drug therapies, where phase II trials are often used as a screening mechanism to identify promising treatments. In this paper we outline the challenges encountered in extending ideas developed in the phase II drug trial literature to the complex intervention setting. The prevalence of multiple endpoints and clustering of outcome data are identified as important considerations, having implications for timely and robust determination of optimal trial design parameters. The potential for Bayesian methods to help to identify robust trial designs and optimal decision rules is also explored

A high-resolution radio survey of the Vela supernova remnant

This paper presents a high-resolution radio continuum (843 MHz) survey of the Vela supernova remnant. The contrast between the structures in the central pulsar-powered nebula of the remnant and the synchrotron radiation shell allows the remnant to be identified morphologically as a member of the composite class. The data are the first of a composite remnant at spatial scales comparable with those available for the Cygnus Loop and the Crab Nebula, and make possible a comparison of radio, optical and soft X-ray emission from the resolved shell filaments. The survey, made with the Molonglo Observatory Synthesis Telescope, covers an area of 50 square degrees at a resolution of 43'' x 60'', while imaging structures on scales up to 30'.Comment: 18 pages, 7 jpg figures (version with ps figures at http://astro.berkeley.edu/~dbock/papers/); AJ, in pres

Low-Multiplicity Burst Search At The Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

Results are reported from a search for low-multiplicity neutrino bursts in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory. Such bursts could indicate the detection of a nearby core-collapse supernova explosion. The data were taken from Phase I (1999 November-2001 May), when the detector was filled with heavy water, and Phase II (2001 July-2003 August), when NaCl was added to the target. The search was a blind analysis in which the potential backgrounds were estimated and analysis cuts were developed to eliminate such backgrounds with 90% confidence before the data were examined. The search maintained a greater than 50% detection probability for standard supernovae occurring at a distance of up to 60 kpc for Phase I and up to 70 kpc for Phase II. No low-multiplicity bursts were observed during the data-taking period.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, CanadaIndustry Canada, CanadaNational Research Council, CanadaNorthern Ontario Heritage Fund, CanadaAtomic Energy of Canada, Ltd., CanadaOntario Power Generation, CanadaHigh Performance Computing Virtual Laboratory, CanadaCanada Foundation for Innovation, CanadaCanada Research Chairs, CanadaDepartment of Energy, USNational Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, USAlfred P. Sloan Foundation, USScience and Technology Facilities Council, UKFundacao para a Ciencia e a Technologia, PortugalAstronom

Ethnic and social inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland:protocol for early pandemic evaluation and enhanced surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II)

Introduction: Evidence from previous pandemics, and the current COVID-19 pandemic, has found that risk of infection/severity of disease is disproportionately higher for ethnic minority groups, and those in lower socioeconomic positions. It is imperative that interventions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 are targeted towards high-risk populations. We will investigate the associations between social characteristics (such as ethnicity, occupation and socioeconomic position) and COVID-19 outcomes and the extent to which characteristics/risk factors might explain observed relationships in Scotland. The primary objective of this study is to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 by social factors. Secondary objectives are to (1) examine receipt of treatment and prevention of COVID-19 by social factors; (2) quantify ethnic/social differences in adverse COVID-19 outcomes; (3) explore potential mediators of relationships between social factors and SARS-CoV-2 infection/COVID-19 prognosis; (4) examine whether occupational COVID-19 differences differ by other social factors and (5) assess quality of ethnicity coding within National Health Service datasets. Methods and analysis: We will use a national cohort comprising the adult population of Scotland who completed the 2011 Census and were living in Scotland on 31 March 2020 (~4.3 million people). Census data will be linked to the Early Assessment of Vaccine and Anti-Viral Effectiveness II cohort consisting of primary/secondary care, laboratory data and death records. Sensitivity/specificity and positive/negative predictive values will be used to assess coding quality of ethnicity. Descriptive statistics will be used to examine differences in treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Poisson/Cox regression analyses and mediation techniques will examine ethnic and social differences, and drivers of inequalities in COVID-19. Effect modification (on additive and multiplicative scales) between key variables (such as ethnicity and occupation) will be assessed. Ethics and dissemination: Ethical approval was obtained from the National Research Ethics Committee, South East Scotland 02. We will present findings of this study at international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals and to policy-makers

Low Multiplicity Burst Search at the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

Results are reported from a search for low-multiplicity neutrino bursts in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO). Such bursts could indicate detection of a nearby core-collapse supernova explosion. The data were taken from Phase I (November 1999 - May 2001), when the detector was filled with heavy water, and Phase II (July 2001 - August 2003), when NaCl was added to the target. The search was a blind analysis in which the potential backgrounds were estimated and analysis cuts were developed to eliminate such backgrounds with 90% confidence before the data were examined. The search maintained a greater than 50% detection probability for standard supernovae occurring at a distance of up to 60 kpc for Phase I and up to 70 kpc for Phase II. No low-multiplicity bursts were observed during the data-taking period.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Ap

A Search for Neutrinos from the Solar hep Reaction and the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background with the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory

A search has been made for neutrinos from the hep reaction in the Sun and from the diffus