A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data

In this paper we study the question of debt sustainability from a risk management perspective. The debt accumulation equation for any country involves variables that are stochastic and closely intertwined. When these aspects are taken into consideration the notion of debt sustainability is expanded to studying the stochastic properties of the debt dynamics. We illustrate the methodology by studying the Brazilian case. We find that even though the debt could be sustainable in the absence of risk, there are paths in which it is clearly unsustainable. Furthermore, we show that properties of the debt dynamics are closely related to the spreads on sovereign dollar denominated debt.Public Debt, Debt Sustainability, Country Risk, Brazil JEL Codes: F34, F37, G15

Tra arte e letteratura: Il museo dell’Innocenza di Orhan Pamuk

Il testo si propone di indagare un territorio di confine tra arte e letteratura a partire dal caso specifico de Il Museo dell'Innocenza di Orhan Pamuk. La caratteristica per cui è stato scelto questo esempio è che il protagonista costruisce una sorta di museo con gli oggetti della persona amata e che Pamuk stesso ha costruito davvero il museo. Il museo dell'Innocenza diventa quindi un libro e un'opera d'arte e si basa su un meccanismo per cui facts and fictions diventano intercambiabili.The essay aims at investigating the borders between visual arts and literature. The premise is found out in several recent novels, where the writers not only create characters working in the art world - artists, collectors, dealers - or describe real art works, but also create original art works, so that the writers themselves become the authors. In particular this essay considers The Museum of Innocence, a novel written by Orhan Pamuk, Turkish novelist and winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Literature. The peculiarity, which is the reason why I choose this example, is the fact that the main character inside the novel builds a sort of museum collecting the objects which belonged to his beloved one; and that Pamuk himself built a real museum with that objects. The Museum of Innocence so becomes a book and an art work (an installation constituted by the whole museum), and is based on a mechanism where facts and fictions become interchangeable

Early Cognitive/Social Deficits and Late Motor Phenotype in Conditional Wild-Type TDP-43 Transgenic Mice

Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are two neurodegenerative diseases associated to mislocalization and aggregation of TAR DNA-binding protein 43 (TDP-43). To investigate in depth the behavioral phenotype associated with this proteinopathy, we used as a model transgenic (Tg) mice conditionally overexpressing human wild-type TDP 43 protein (hTDP-43-WT) in forebrain neurons. We previously characterized these mice at the neuropathological level and found progressive neurodegeneration and other features that evoke human TDP-43 proteinopathies of the FTD/ALS spectrum. In the present study we analyzed the behavior of mice at multiple domains, including motor, social and cognitive performance. Our results indicate that young hTDP-43-WT Tg mice (1 month after post-weaning transgene induction) present a normal motor phenotype compared to control littermates, as assessed by accelerated rotarod performance, spontaneous locomotor activity in the open field test and a mild degree of spasticity shown by a clasping phenotype. Analysis of social and cognitive behavior showed a rapid installment of deficits in social interaction, working memory (Y-maze test) and recognition memory (novel object recognition test) in the absence of overt motor abnormalities. To investigate if the motor phenotype worsen with age, we analyzed the behavior of mice after long-term (up to 12 months) transgene induction. Our results reveal a decreased performance on the rotarod test and in the hanging wire test, indicating a motor phenotype that was absent in younger mice. In addition, long-term hTDP-43-WT expression led to hyperlocomotion in the open field test. In sum, these results demonstrate a time-dependent emergence of a motor phenotype in older hTDP-43-WT Tg mice, recapitulating aspects of clinical FTD presentations with motor involvement in human patients, and providing a complementary animal model for studying TDP-43 proteinopathies.Fil: Alfieri, Julio Armando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay; ArgentinaFil: Silva Pinto, Pablo Roberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay; ArgentinaFil: Müller Igaz, Lionel Ivan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Houssay. Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay; Argentin

A novel evaluation framework for recommender systems in big data environments

Henriques, R., & Pinto, L. (2023). A novel evaluation framework for recommender systems in big data environments. Expert Systems with Applications. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.120659---We gratefully acknowledge the support of Aptoide in providing access to the data which made this project possible. This work was supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia), under the project—UIDB/04152/2020—Centro de Investigação em Gestão de Informação (MagIC)/NOVA IMS.Recommender systems were first introduced to solve information overload problems in enterprises. Over the last few decades, recommender systems have found applications in several major websites related to e-commerce, music and video streaming, travel and movie sites, social media, and mobile app stores. Several methods have been proposed over the years to build recommender systems. However, very little work has been done in recommender system evaluation metrics. The most common approach to measuring recommender system’s performance in offline settings is to employ micro or macro averaged versions of standard machine-learning measures. Profit or other business-oriented metrics have been proposed for other predictive analytics problems, such as churn prediction. However, no such metrics have emerged for the recommender system context. In this work, we propose a novel evaluation metric that incorporates information from the online-platform userbase’s behavior. This metric’s rationale is that the recommender system ought to improve customers’ repeatead use of an online platform beyond the baseline level (i.e. in the absence of a recommender system). An empirical application of this novel metric is also presented in a real-world mobile app store, which integrates the dynamics of large-scale big data environments, which are common deployment scenarios for these types of recommender systems. The resulting profit metric is shown to correlate with the existing metrics while also being capable of integrating cost information, thereby providing an additional business benefit context, which allows us to differentiate between two similarly performing models.publishersversionepub_ahead_of_prin

Strategic Planning Constraints within a Fast Pace Changing Organizational Context

The purpose of this study is to identify how a fast pace change in the organizational context impacts strategic planning as well as to have a better understanding of which are the main constraints that organizations are facing regarding their strategic planning process

Composição florística e estrutura da vegetação arbustivo-arbórea em um cerrado rupestre, Cocalzinho de Goiás, Goiás

Foi realizado um levantamento da vegetação arbutivo-arbórea (indivíduos com diâmetro a 30 cm do solo > 5 cm), em 1,0 hectare de cerrado rupestre (dez parcelas de 20 × 50 m), localizado em Cocalzinho de Goiás, Goiás, Brasil (15º48' S e 48º45' W). O objetivo foi avaliar e comparar as relações florísticas e as características estruturais deste cerrado sobre afloramentos rochosos com aquelas encontradas nos estudos já realizados em áreas de cerrado sentido restrito sobre solos profundos, localizados no Brasil Central. A composição florística do cerrado rupestre estudado é formada predominantemente por espécies das fitofisionomias do cerrado sentido restrito e em menor contribuição por espécies das formações florestais do bioma e espécies endêmicas de ambientes rupestres. A riqueza e a diversidade de espécies estão dentro dos limites normalmente encontrados para as áreas de cerrado sentido restrito do Brasil Central. Em termos estruturais, a densidade e área basal se assemelham aos valores registrados na subdivisão fitofisionômica de cerrado ralo. As condições ambientais limitantes, principalmente edáficas, não resultaram em mudanças expressivas na composição florística, riqueza e diversidade de espécies, mas refletiram em redução da densidade e área basal da vegetação arbustivo-arbórea do cerrado rupestre estudado.A vegetation survey of the woody species (at least 5 cm of trunk diameter at 30 cm above the ground) was conducted in a savanna on rocky soil (cerrado rupestre) in Cocalzinho de Goiás municipality, Goiás State, Brazil (15º48' S and 48º45' W). The objective was to compare the structure characteristics and the floristics of cerrado rupestre with those features found in cerrado stricto sensu areas occuring on deep soils in Central Brazil. The sample consisted in 1.0 hectare (ten plots, 20 × 50 m) in cerrado rupestre. The cerrado rupestre studied showed structural similarities with the physiognomy of open cerrado (cerrado ralo). The richness and the species diversity are similar with other brazilian savanna (cerrado stricto sensu areas of Brazil Central). The floristic composition revealed species predominantly from other physiognomies from the cerrado stricto sensu and to a lesser extent, species from forest formations from the bioma and endemics from this rocky environment. The floristic richness and diversity is similar to other savanna areas of Central Brazil. In structural terms, the density and basal area are similar to values found in open cerrado vegetation. The limiting environmental conditions, mainly edaphics, do not result in expressive changes in floristic composition, richness, and species diversity, but promoted reduction in density and basal area of the wood species in the cerrado rupestre studied