The Administration\u27s Program for Economic Recovery : Theory and Evidence

The economic recovery program proposes to inject about $100 billion into the aggregate spending stream while simultaneously reducing the inflation rate. Careful analysis of estimates of the supply response to tax rate reductions and deregulation show that output increases will not balance the increased demand. Savings rates several times historic levels are thus necessary not only to reduce inflation, but even to prevent the program from worsening inflation. Recent evidence indicates that none of the scenarios most often mentioned as producing the requisite savings hold much promise

A Photometric Study of the Young Stellar Population Throughout the lambda Orionis Star-Forming Region

We present VRI photometry of 320,917 stars with 11 < R < 18 throughout the lambda Orionis star-forming region. We statistically remove the field stars and identify a representative PMS population throughout the interior of the molecular ring. The spatial distribution of this population shows a concentration of PMS stars around lambda Ori and in front of the B35 dark cloud. Few PMS stars are found outside these pockets of high stellar density, suggesting that star formation was concentrated in an elongated cloud extending from B35 through lambda Ori to the B30 cloud. We find a lower limit for the global stellar mass of about 500 Mo. We find that the global ratio of low- to high-mass stars is similar to that predicted by the field initial mass function, but this ratio varies strongly as a function of position in the star-forming region. Locally, the star-formation process does not produce a universal initial mass function. We construct a history of the star-forming complex. This history incorporates a recent supernova to explain the distribution of stars and gas today.Comment: 42 pages, 11 figures; to appear in the Astronomical Journa

Results of the 2016 Indianapolis Biodiversity Survey, Marion County, Indiana

Surprising biodiversity can be found in cities, but urban habitats are understudied. We report on a bioblitz conducted primarily within a 24-hr period on September 16 and 17, 2016 in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. The event focused on stretches of three waterways and their associated riparian habitat: Fall Creek (20.6 ha; 51 acres), Pleasant Run (23.5 ha; 58 acres), and Pogue’s Run (27.1 ha; 67 acres). Over 75 scientists, naturalists, students, and citizen volunteers comprised 14 different taxonomic teams. Five hundred ninety taxa were documented despite the rainy conditions. A brief summary of the methods and findings are presented here. Detailed maps of survey locations and inventory results are available on the Indiana Academy of Science website (https://www.indianaacademyofscience.org/)

Optimal management of adults with pharyngitis – a multi-criteria decision analysis

BACKGROUND: Current practice guidelines offer different management recommendations for adults presenting with a sore throat. The key issue is the extent to which the clinical likelihood of a Group A streptococcal infection should affect patient management decisions. To help resolve this issue, we conducted a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. METHODS: We defined optimal patient management using four criteria: 1) reduce symptom duration; 2) prevent infectious complications, local and systemic; 3) minimize antibiotic side effects, minor and anaphylaxis; and 4) achieve prudent use of antibiotics, avoiding both over-use and under-use. In our baseline analysis we assumed that all criteria and sub-criteria were equally important except minimizing anaphylactic side effects, which was judged very strongly more important than minimizing minor side effects. Management strategies included: a) No test, No treatment; b) Perform a rapid strep test and treat if positive; c) Perform a throat culture and treat if positive; d) Perform a rapid strep test and treat if positive; if negative obtain a throat culture and treat if positive; and e) treat without further tests. We defined four scenarios based on the likelihood of group A streptococcal infection using the Centor score, a well-validated clinical index. Published data were used to estimate the likelihoods of clinical outcomes and the test operating characteristics of the rapid strep test and throat culture for identifying group A streptococcal infections. RESULTS: Using the baseline assumptions, no testing and no treatment is preferred for patients with Centor scores of 1; two strategies – culture and treat if positive and rapid strep with culture of negative results – are equally preferable for patients with Centor scores of 2; and rapid strep with culture of negative results is the best management strategy for patients with Centor scores 3 or 4. These results are sensitive to the priorities assigned to the decision criteria, especially avoiding over-use versus under-use of antibiotics, and the population prevalence of Group A streptococcal pharyngitis. CONCLUSION: The optimal clinical management of adults with sore throat depends on both the clinical probability of a group A streptococcal infection and clinical judgments that incorporate individual patient and practice circumstances

The development of rainfall retrievals from radar at Darwin

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-53-2021The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program Tropical Western Pacific site hosted a C-band polarization (CPOL) radar in Darwin, Australia. It provides 2 decades of tropical rainfall characteristics useful for validating global circulation models. Rainfall retrievals from radar assume characteristics about the droplet size distribution (DSD) that vary significantly. To minimize the uncertainty associated with DSD variability, new radar rainfall techniques use dual polarization and specific attenuation estimates. This study challenges the applicability of several specific attenuation and dual-polarization-based rainfall estimators in tropical settings using a 4-year archive of Darwin disdrometer datasets in conjunction with CPOL observations. This assessment is based on three metrics: statistical uncertainty estimates, principal component analysis (PCA), and comparisons of various retrievals from CPOL data. The PCA shows that the variability in R can be consistently attributed to reflectivity, but dependence on dualpolarization quantities was wavelength dependent for 1 10 mm h−1 . Rainfall estimates during these conditions primarily originate from deep convective clouds with median drop diameters greater than 1.5 mm. An uncertainty analysis and intercomparison with CPOL show that a Colorado State University blended technique for tropical oceans, with modified estimators developed from video disdrometer observations, is most appropriate for use in all cases, such as when 1 10 mm h−1 (deeper convective rain).Argonne National Laboratory’s work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. This work has been supported by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the Climate Model Development and Validation activity. NOAA PSL contributes effort with funding from the Weather Program Office’s Precipitation Prediction Grand Challenge. The development of the Python ARM radar toolkit was funded by the ARM program part of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The work from Monash University and the Bureau of Meteorology was partly supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Systems Research Program through the grant DE-SC0014063. BD contributions are supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Systems Research Program through the grant DE-SC0017977

Evaluating the suitability of multi-scale terrain attribute calculation approaches for seabed mapping applications

The scale dependence of benthic terrain attributes is well-accepted, and multi-scale methods are increasingly applied for benthic habitat mapping. There are, however, multiple ways to calculate terrain attributes at multiple scales, and the suitability of these approaches depends on the purpose of the analysis and data characteristics. There are currently few guidelines establishing the appropriateness of multi-scale raster calculation approaches for specific benthic habitat mapping applications. First, we identify three common purposes for calculating terrain attributes at multiple scales for benthic habitat mapping: (i) characterizing scale-specific terrain features, (ii) reducing data artefacts and errors, and (iii) reducing the mischaracterization of ground-truth data due to inaccurate sample positioning. We then define criteria that calculation approaches should fulfill to address these purposes. At two study sites, five raster terrain attributes, including measures of orientation, relative position, terrain variability, slope, and rugosity were calculated at multiple scales using four approaches to compare the suitability of the approaches for these three purposes. Results suggested that specific calculation approaches were better suited to certain tasks. A transferable parameter, termed the ‘analysis distance’, was necessary to compare attributes calculated using different approaches, and we emphasize the utility of such a parameter for facilitating the generalized comparison of terrain attributes across methods, sites, and scales

WIYN Open Cluster Study. XXXVIII. Stellar Radial Velocities in the Young Open Cluster M35 (NGC 2168)

We present 5201 radial-velocity measurements of 1144 stars, as part of an ongoing study of the young (150 Myr) open cluster M35 (NGC 2168). We have observed M35 since 1997, using the Hydra Multi-Object Spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5m telescope. Our stellar sample covers main-sequence stars over a magnitude range of 13.0<V<16.5 (1.6 - 0.8 Msun) and extends spatially to a radius of 30 arcminutes (7 pc in projection at a distance of 805 pc or 4 core radii). Due to its youth, M35 provides a sample of late-type stars with a range of rotation periods. Therefore, we analyze the radial-velocity measurement precision as a function of the projected rotational velocity. For narrow-lined stars (v sin i < 10 km/s), the radial velocities have a precision of 0.5 km/s, which degrades to 1.0 km/s for stars with v sin i = 50 km/s. The radial-velocity distribution shows a well-defined cluster peak with a central velocity of -8.16 +/- 0.05 km/s, permitting a clean separation of the cluster and field stars. For stars with >=3 measurements, we derive radial-velocity membership probabilities and identify radial-velocity variables, finding 360 cluster members, 55 of which show significant radial- velocity variability. Using these cluster members, we construct a color-magnitude diagram for our stellar sample cleaned of field star contamination. We also compare the spatial distribution of the single and binary cluster members, finding no evidence for mass segregation in our stellar sample. Accounting for measurement precision, we place an upper limit on the radial-velocity dispersion of the cluster of 0.81 +/- 0.08 km/s. After correcting for undetected binaries, we derive a true radial-velocity dispersion of 0.65 +/- 0.10 km/s.Comment: accepted for publication in A

IR Spectrometer Using 90-degree Off-axis Parabolic Mirrors

A gated spectrometer has been designed for real-time, pulsed infrared (IR) studies at the National Synchrotron Light ource at the Brookhaven National Laboratory. A pair of 90-degree, off-axis parabolic mirrors are used to relay the light from an entrance slit to an output IR recording camera. With an initial wavelength range of 1500–4500 nm required, gratings could not be used in the spectrometer because grating orders would overlap. A magnesium oxide prism, placed between these parabolic mirrors, serves as the dispersion element. The spectrometer is doubly telecentric. With proper choice of the air spacing between the prism and the second parabolic mirror, any spectral region of interest within the InSb camera array’s sensitivity region can be recorded. The wavelengths leaving the second parabolic mirror are collimated, thereby relaxing the camera positioning tolerance. To set up the instrument, two different wavelength (visible) lasers are introduced at the entrance slit and made collinear with the optical axis via flip mirrors. After dispersion by the prism, these two laser beams are directed to tick marks located on the outside housing of the gated IR camera. This provides first-order wavelength calibration for the instrument. Light that is reflected off the front prism face is coupled into a high-speed detector to verify steady radiance during the gated spectral imaging. Alignment features include tick marks on the prism and parabolic mirrors. This instrument was designed to complement singlepoint pyrometry, which provides continuous time histories of a small collection of spots from shock-heated targets

Systematic 1/N1/N corrections for bosonic and fermionic vector models without auxiliary fields

In this paper, colorless bilocal fields are employed to study the large $N$ limit of both fermionic and bosonic vector models. The Jacobian associated with the change of variables from the original fields to the bilocals is computed exactly, thereby providing an exact effective action. This effective action is shown to reproduce the familiar perturbative expansion for the two and four point functions. In particular, in the case of fermionic vector models, the effective action correctly accounts for the Fermi statistics. The theory is also studied non-perturbatively. The stationary points of the effective action are shown to provide the usual large $N$ gap equations. The homogeneous equation associated with the quadratic (in the bilocals) action is simply the two particle Bethe Salpeter equation. Finally, the leading correction in $1\over N$ is shown to be in agreement with the exact $S$ matrix of the model.Comment: 24 pages, uses REVTEX macros. Replaced with final version to appear in Phys. Rev.

The social value of a QALY : raising the bar or barring the raise?

Background: Since the inception of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) in England, there have been questions about the empirical basis for the cost-per-QALY threshold used by NICE and whether QALYs gained by different beneficiaries of health care should be weighted equally. The Social Value of a QALY (SVQ) project, reported in this paper, was commissioned to address these two questions. The results of SVQ were released during a time of considerable debate about the NICE threshold, and authors with differing perspectives have drawn on the SVQ results to support their cases. As these discussions continue, and given the selective use of results by those involved, it is important, therefore, not only to present a summary overview of SVQ, but also for those who conducted the research to contribute to the debate as to its implications for NICE. Discussion: The issue of the threshold was addressed in two ways: first, by combining, via a set of models, the current UK Value of a Prevented Fatality (used in transport policy) with data on fatality age, life expectancy and age-related quality of life; and, second, via a survey designed to test the feasibility of combining respondents’ answers to willingness to pay and health state utility questions to arrive at values of a QALY. Modelling resulted in values of £10,000-£70,000 per QALY. Via survey research, most methods of aggregating the data resulted in values of a QALY of £18,000-£40,000, although others resulted in implausibly high values. An additional survey, addressing the issue of weighting QALYs, used two methods, one indicating that QALYs should not be weighted and the other that greater weight could be given to QALYs gained by some groups. Summary: Although we conducted only a feasibility study and a modelling exercise, neither present compelling evidence for moving the NICE threshold up or down. Some preliminary evidence would indicate it could be moved up for some types of QALY and down for others. While many members of the public appear to be open to the possibility of using somewhat different QALY weights for different groups of beneficiaries, we do not yet have any secure evidence base for introducing such a system