Tobacco smoking and all-cause mortality in a large Australian cohort study: findings from a mature epidemic with current low smoking prevalence

This study finds that up to two-thirds of deaths in current smokers  in Australia can be attributed to smoking. Abstract Background The smoking epidemic in Australia is characterised by historic levels of prolonged smoking, heavy smoking, very high levels of long-term cessation, and low current smoking prevalence, with 13% of adults reporting that they smoked daily in 2013. Large-scale quantitative evidence on the relationship of tobacco smoking to mortality in Australia is not available despite the potential to provide independent international evidence about the contemporary risks of smoking. Methods This is a prospective study of 204,953 individuals aged ≥45 years sampled from the general population of New South Wales, Australia, who joined the 45 and Up Study from 2006–2009, with linked questionnaire, hospitalisation, and mortality data to mid-2012 and with no history of cancer (other than melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer), heart disease, stroke, or thrombosis. Hazard ratios (described here as relative risks, RRs) for all-cause mortality among current and past smokers compared to never-smokers were estimated, adjusting for age, education, income, region of residence, alcohol, and body mass index. Results Overall, 5,593 deaths accrued during follow-up (874,120 person-years; mean: 4.26 years); 7.7% of participants were current smokers and 34.1% past smokers at baseline. Compared to never-smokers, the adjusted RR (95% CI) of mortality was 2.96 (2.69–3.25) in current smokers and was similar in men (2.82 (2.49–3.19)) and women (3.08 (2.63–3.60)) and according to birth cohort. Mortality RRs increased with increasing smoking intensity, with around two- and four-fold increases in mortality in current smokers of ≤14 (mean 10/day) and ≥25 cigarettes/day, respectively, compared to never-smokers. Among past smokers, mortality diminished gradually with increasing time since cessation and did not differ significantly from never-smokers in those quitting prior to age 45. Current smokers are estimated to die an average of 10 years earlier than non-smokers. Conclusions In Australia, up to two-thirds of deaths in current smokers can be attributed to smoking. Cessation reduces mortality compared with continuing to smoke, with cessation earlier in life resulting in greater reductions

Warming the early Earth - CO2 reconsidered

Despite a fainter Sun, the surface of the early Earth was mostly ice-free. Proposed solutions to this so-called "faint young Sun problem" have usually involved higher amounts of greenhouse gases than present in the modern-day atmosphere. However, geological evidence seemed to indicate that the atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Archaean and Proterozoic were far too low to keep the surface from freezing. With a radiative-convective model including new, updated thermal absorption coefficients, we found that the amount of CO2 necessary to obtain 273 K at the surface is reduced up to an order of magnitude compared to previous studies. For the late Archaean and early Proterozoic period of the Earth, we calculate that CO2 partial pressures of only about 2.9 mb are required to keep its surface from freezing which is compatible with the amount inferred from sediment studies. This conclusion was not significantly changed when we varied model parameters such as relative humidity or surface albedo, obtaining CO2 partial pressures for the late Archaean between 1.5 and 5.5 mb. Thus, the contradiction between sediment data and model results disappears for the late Archaean and early Proterozoic.Comment: 53 pages, 4 tables, 11 figures, published in Planetary and Space Scienc

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Magnetic Resonance Imaging Is More Sensitive Than PET for Detecting Treatment-Induced Cell Death-Dependent Changes in Glycolysis.

Metabolic imaging has been widely used to measure the early responses of tumors to treatment. Here, we assess the abilities of PET measurement of [18F]FDG uptake and MRI measurement of hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate metabolism to detect early changes in glycolysis following treatment-induced cell death in human colorectal (Colo205) and breast adenocarcinoma (MDA-MB-231) xenografts in mice. A TRAIL agonist that binds to human but not mouse cells induced tumor-selective cell death. Tumor glycolysis was assessed by injecting [1,6-13C2]glucose and measuring 13C-labeled metabolites in tumor extracts. Injection of hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate induced rapid reduction in lactate labeling. This decrease, which correlated with an increase in histologic markers of cell death and preceded decrease in tumor volume, reflected reduced flux from glucose to lactate and decreased lactate concentration. However, [18F]FDG uptake and phosphorylation were maintained following treatment, which has been attributed previously to increased [18F]FDG uptake by infiltrating immune cells. Quantification of [18F]FDG uptake in flow-sorted tumor and immune cells from disaggregated tumors identified CD11b+/CD45+ macrophages as the most [18F]FDG-avid cell type present, yet they represented <5% of the cells present in the tumors and could not explain the failure of [18F]FDG-PET to detect treatment response. MRI measurement of hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate metabolism is therefore a more sensitive marker of the early decreases in glycolytic flux that occur following cell death than PET measurements of [18F]FDG uptake. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings demonstrate superior sensitivity of MRI measurement of hyperpolarized [1-13C]pyruvate metabolism versus PET measurement of 18F-FDG uptake for detecting early changes in glycolysis following treatment-induced tumor cell death

Electromagnetic and physical properties of sea ice formed in the presence of wave action

Estimating the magnitude of brine flux to the upper ocean requires an ability to assess the dynamics of the formation of sea ice in a region. Brine storage and rate of expulsion is determined by the environmental conditions under which the sea ice forms. In this paper, the physical and electromagnetic properties of sea ice, formed under wave-agitated conditions, are studied and compared with results obtained from ice formed under quiescent conditions. Wave agitation is known to have a profound effect on the air-ice interface and internal ice structure. A variety of sensors, both active and passive, optical and microwave, were used to perform this characterization. Measured electromagnetic parameters included radar backscatter, microwave emission, and spectral albedo in the visible and infrared. Measured physical properties included ice structure, brine and temperature distribution, profiles of the vertical height of the air-ice interface, and ice formation processes. Results showed that emission, backscatter, and albedo all take different signature paths during the transformation from saline water to young sea ice and that the paths depend on sea surface state during ice formation

Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders

A broad spectral, interdisciplinary investigation of the electromagnetic properties of sea ice

This paper highlights the interrelationship of research completed by a team of investigators and presented in the several individual papers comprising this Special Section on the Office of Naval Research (ONR), Arlington, VA, Sponsored Sea Ice Electromagnetics Accelerated Research Initiative (ARI). The objectives of the initiative were the following: 1) understand the mechanisms and processes that link the morphological and physical properties of sea ice to its electromagnetic (EM) characteristics; 2) develop and verify predictive models for the interaction of visible, infrared, and microwave radiation with sea ice; 3) develop and verify inverse scattering techniques applicable to problems involving the interaction of EM radiation with sea ice. Guiding principles for the program were that all EM data be taken with concurrent physical property data (salinity, density, roughness, etc.) and that broad spectral data be acquired in as nearly a simultaneous fashion as possible. Over 30 investigators participated in laboratory, field, and modeling studies that spanned the EM spectrum from radio to ultraviolet wavelengths. An interdisciplinary approach that brought together sea ice physicists, remote-sensing experts tin EM measurements), and forward and inverse modelers (primarily mathematicians and EM theorists) was a hallmark of the program. Along with describing results from experiments and modeling efforts, possible paradigms for using broad spectral data in developing algorithms for analyzing remote-sensing data in terms of ice concentration, age, type, and possibly thickness are briefly discussed

Genetic Diversity in the SIR Model of Pathogen Evolution

We introduce a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in pathogen populations, whose epidemiology follows a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR). We model the population of pathogens as a metapopulation composed of subpopulations (infected hosts), where pathogens replicate and mutate. Hosts transmit pathogens to uninfected hosts. We show that the level of pathogen variation is well predicted by analytical expressions, such that pathogen neutral molecular variation is bounded by the level of infection and increases with the duration of infection. We then introduce selection in the model and study the invasion probability of a new pathogenic strain whose fitness (R0(1+s)) is higher than the fitness of the resident strain (R0). We show that this invasion probability is given by the relative increment in R0 of the new pathogen (s). By analyzing the patterns of genetic diversity in this framework, we identify the molecular signatures during the replacement and compare these with those observed in sequences of influenza A

Bourdieusian Reflections on Language: Unavoidable Conditions of the Real Speech Situation

The main purpose of this paper is to shed light on Pierre Bourdieu’s conception of language. Although he has dedicated a significant part of his work to the study of language and even though his analysis of language has been extensively discussed in the literature, almost no attention has been paid to the factthat Bourdieu’s account of language is based on a number of ontological presuppositions, that is, on a set of universal assumptions about the very nature of language. This article aims to fill this gap in the literature by offering a detailed overview of 10 key features which, from a Bourdieusian point of view, can be regarded as inherent in language. On the basis of this enquiry,the study seeks todemonstrate that——contraryto commonbelief——there is not only a Bourdieusian sociology of language but also a Bourdieusian philosophy of language, which provides a useful theoretical framework for examining the unavoidable conditions of the real speech situation. The paper draws to a close by reflecting on the flaws and limitations of Bourdieu’s approach to language