Assessing Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstock Production Across a Gradient of Agricultural Management Systems in the U.S. Midwest

While biofuels are widely considered to be a part of the solution to high oil prices, a comprehensive assessment of the environmental sustainability of existing and future biofuel systems is needed to assess their utility in meeting U.S. energy and food needs without exacerbating environmental harm. The following questions guide this research: 1. What is the spatial extent and composition of agricultural management systems that exist in the U.S. Midwest? 2. How does sub-grid scale edaphic variation impact our estimation of poplar biomass productivity across a gradient of spatial scales in the U.S. Midwest? 3. How do location and management interactions impact yield gap analysis of cellulosic ethanol production in U.S. Midwest? In the first chapter, I developed an algorithm to identify representative crop rotations in the U.S. Midwest, using remotely sensed data; and used this information to detect pronounced shifts from grassland to monoculture cultivation in the U.S. Midwest. In the second chapter, a new algorithm is developed to reduce the computational burden of high resolution ecosystem modeling of poplar plantations in U.S. Midwest, with the results from the high resolution modeling being used to estimate the impact of averaging and discretization of soil properties on poplar yield estimates. In the third chapter, a novel yield gap analysis of cellulosic feedstocks on marginal lands in the U.S. Midwest is conducted to determine the management inputs needed to reach their yield potential in a sustainable manner. The significance of this research lies in providing a spatially explicit regional scale analysis of the tradeoffs between food and fuel production and providing an understanding of which biofuel crops should be grown where to maximize production while mitigating environmental damage

National Geo-Database for Biofuel Simulations and Regional Analysis of Biorefinery Siting Based on Cellulosic Feedstock Grown on Marginal Lands

The goal of this project undertaken by GLBRC (Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center) Area 4 (Sustainability) modelers is to develop a national capability to model feedstock supply, ethanol production, and biogeochemical impacts of cellulosic biofuels. The results of this project contribute to sustainability goals of the GLBRC; i.e. to contribute to developing a sustainable bioenergy economy: one that is profitable to farmers and refiners, acceptable to society, and environmentally sound. A sustainable bioenergy economy will also contribute, in a fundamental way, to meeting national objectives on energy security and climate mitigation. The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) develop a spatially explicit national geodatabase for conducting biofuel simulation studies and (4) locate possible sites for the establishment of cellulosic ethanol biorefineries. To address the first objective, we developed SENGBEM (Spatially Explicit National Geodatabase for Biofuel and Environmental Modeling), a 60-m resolution geodatabase of the conterminous USA containing data on: (1) climate, (2) soils, (3) topography, (4) hydrography, (5) land cover/ land use (LCLU), and (6) ancillary data (e.g., road networks, federal and state lands, national and state parks, etc.). A unique feature of SENGBEM is its 2008-2010 crop rotation data, a crucially important component for simulating productivity and biogeochemical cycles as well as land-use changes associated with biofuel cropping. ARRA support for this project and to the PNNL Joint Global Change Research Institute enabled us to create an advanced computing infrastructure to execute millions of simulations, conduct post-processing calculations, store input and output data, and visualize results. These computing resources included two components installed at the Research Data Center of the University of Maryland. The first resource was 'deltac': an 8-core Linux server, dedicated to county-level and state-level simulations and PostgreSQL database hosting. The second resource was the DOE-JGCRI 'Evergreen' cluster, capable of executing millions of simulations in relatively short periods. ARRA funding also supported a PhD student from UMD who worked on creating the geodatabases and executing some of the simulations in this study. Using a physically based classification of marginal lands, we simulated production of cellulosic feedstocks from perennial mixtures grown on these lands in the US Midwest. Marginal lands in the western states of the US Midwest appear to have significant potential to supply feedstocks to a cellulosic biofuel industry. Similar results were obtained with simulations of N-fertilized perennial mixtures. A detailed spatial analysis allowed for the identification of possible locations for the establishment of 34 cellulosic ethanol biorefineries with an annual production capacity of 5.6 billion gallons. In summary, we have reported on the development of a spatially explicit national geodatabase to conduct biofuel simulation studies and provided simulation results on the potential of perennial cropping systems to serve as feedstocks for the production of cellulosic ethanol. To accomplish this, we have employed sophisticated spatial analysis methods in combination with the process-based biogeochemical model EPIC. The results of this study will be submitted to the USDOE Bioenergy Knowledge Discovery Framework as a way to contribute to the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry. This work provided the opportunity to test the hypothesis that marginal lands can serve as sources of cellulosic feedstocks and thus contribute to avoid potential conflicts between bioenergy and food production systems. This work, we believe, opens the door for further analysis on the characteristics of cellulosic feedstocks as major contributors to the development of a sustainable bioenergy economy

Analyzing the Knock-on Impacts of 2022 Floods on Rabi 2023 Using Remote Sensing and Field Surveys

While the world's attention is focused on immediate relief and rescue operations for the affectees of the current floods in Pakistan, knock-on effects are expected to play further havoc with the country's economy and food security in the coming months. Significant crop yield losses had already occurred for Winter (Rabi) 2021-22 due to a heatwave earlier in the year and estimates for the Summer (Kharif) 2022 crop damage due to flood inundation have already been determined to be very high. With the next sowing season already upon the flood affectees, there is a big question mark over the resumption of agricultural activity in disaster-struck districts. This study is aimed at analyzing the range of influences of the 2022 floods on the upcoming winter (Rabi) crop. Satellite-based remote sensing data, state-of-the-art Earth system models, and field observations will be leveraged to estimate the impacts of the flood on the resumption of agricultural activity in the most impacted districts of Southern Punjab, Sindh, and Baluchistan. The field surveys are conducted during multiple visits to the study area to maximize the monitoring of on-ground conditions and provide a larger validation dataset for the satellite-based inundation and crop classification maps. The project leverages on the expertise and previous experiences of the LUMS team in performing satellite-based land/crop classification, estimation of soil moisture levels for irrigation activity, and determining changes in land-use patterns for detecting key agricultural activities. Delays in the sowing of the winter crop and its effects on crop-yield were analyzed through this study

National Geo-Database for Biofuel Simulations and Regional Analysis

The goal of this project undertaken by GLBRC (Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center) Area 4 (Sustainability) modelers is to develop a national capability to model feedstock supply, ethanol production, and biogeochemical impacts of cellulosic biofuels. The results of this project contribute to sustainability goals of the GLBRC; i.e. to contribute to developing a sustainable bioenergy economy: one that is profitable to farmers and refiners, acceptable to society, and environmentally sound. A sustainable bioenergy economy will also contribute, in a fundamental way, to meeting national objectives on energy security and climate mitigation. The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) develop a spatially explicit national geodatabase for conducting biofuel simulation studies; (2) model biomass productivity and associated environmental impacts of annual cellulosic feedstocks; (3) simulate production of perennial biomass feedstocks grown on marginal lands; and (4) locate possible sites for the establishment of cellulosic ethanol biorefineries. To address the first objective, we developed SENGBEM (Spatially Explicit National Geodatabase for Biofuel and Environmental Modeling), a 60-m resolution geodatabase of the conterminous USA containing data on: (1) climate, (2) soils, (3) topography, (4) hydrography, (5) land cover/ land use (LCLU), and (6) ancillary data (e.g., road networks, federal and state lands, national and state parks, etc.). A unique feature of SENGBEM is its 2008-2010 crop rotation data, a crucially important component for simulating productivity and biogeochemical cycles as well as land-use changes associated with biofuel cropping. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate biomass productivity and environmental impacts of annual and perennial cellulosic feedstocks across much of the USA on both croplands and marginal lands. We used data from LTER and eddy-covariance experiments within the study region to test the performance of EPIC and, when necessary, improve its parameterization. We investigated three scenarios. In the first, we simulated a historical (current) baseline scenario composed mainly of corn-, soybean-, and wheat-based rotations as grown existing croplands east of the Rocky Mountains in 30 states. In the second scenario, we simulated a modified baseline in which we harvested corn and wheat residues to supply feedstocks to potential cellulosic ethanol biorefineries distributed within the study area. In the third scenario, we simulated the productivity of perennial cropping systems such as switchgrass or perennial mixtures grown on either marginal or Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands. In all cases we evaluated the environmental impacts (e.g., soil carbon changes, soil erosion, nitrate leaching, etc.) associated with the practices. In summary, we have reported on the development of a spatially explicit national geodatabase to conduct biofuel simulation studies and provided initial simulation results on the potential of annual and perennial cropping systems to serve as feedstocks for the production of cellulosic ethanol. To accomplish this, we have employed sophisticated spatial analysis methods in combination with the process-based biogeochemical model EPIC. This work provided the opportunity to test the hypothesis that marginal lands can serve as sources of cellulosic feedstocks and thus contribute to avoid potential conflicts between bioenergy and food production systems. This work, we believe, opens the door for further analysis on the characteristics of cellulosic feedstocks as major contributors to the development of a sustainable bioenergy economy

A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent

Mosaic landscapes under shifting cultivation, with their dynamic mix of managed and natural land covers, often fall through the cracks in remote sensing–based land cover and land use classifications, as these are unable to adequately capture such landscapes’ dynamic nature and complex spectral and spatial signatures. But information about such landscapes is urgently needed to improve the outcomes of global earth system modelling and large-scale carbon and greenhouse gas accounting. This study combines existing global Landsat-based deforestation data covering the years 2000 to 2014 with very high-resolution satellite imagery to visually detect the specific spatio-temporal pattern of shifting cultivation at a one-degree cell resolution worldwide. The accuracy levels of our classification were high with an overall accuracy above 87%. We estimate the current global extent of shifting cultivation and compare it to other current global mapping endeavors as well as results of literature searches. Based on an expert survey, we make a first attempt at estimating past trends as well as possible future trends in the global distribution of shifting cultivation until the end of the 21st century. With 62% of the investigated one-degree cells in the humid and sub-humid tropics currently showing signs of shifting cultivation—the majority in the Americas (41%) and Africa (37%)—this form of cultivation remains widespread, and it would be wrong to speak of its general global demise in the last decades. We estimate that shifting cultivation landscapes currently cover roughly 280 million hectares worldwide, including both cultivated fields and fallows. While only an approximation, this estimate is clearly smaller than the areas mentioned in the literature which range up to 1,000 million hectares. Based on our expert survey and historical trends we estimate a possible strong decrease in shifting cultivation over the next decades, raising issues of livelihood security and resilience among people currently depending on shifting cultivation

Global Transition Rules for Translating Land-use Change (LUH2) To Land-cover Change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Information on historical land-cover change is important for understanding human impacts on the environment. Over the last decade, global models have characterized historical land-use changes, but few have been able to relate these changes with corresponding changes in land-cover. Utilizing the latest global land-use change data, we make several assumptions about the relationship between land-use and land-cover change, and evaluate each scenario with remote sensing data to identify optimal fit. The resulting transition rule can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models

Regional scale cropland carbon budgets: Evaluating a geospatial agricultural modeling system using inventory data

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems to each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000e2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input data and by designing more efficient parallel computing capability to quantitatively assess errors associated with the simulation of C budget components. The modularized design of the GAMS makes it flexible to be updated and adapted for different agricultural models so long as they require similar input data, and to be linked with socio-economic models to understand the effectiveness and implications of diverse C management practices and policies

Participation of older people in recreation movement anda sense of quality of life

An analysis concerns the level of the sense of quality of life among the people 60+. There has been shown the evaluation of sense of satisfaction with life on a global scale and in selected areas of quality of life among older people not participating in physical recreation at all and four weeks after taking up physical recreation. Test results: The vast majority of respondents after the participation in recreation is happy with their physical shape, contact with friends, relationships with family and peace of mind. Adoption of physical activity impact on the perception of the ability to perform the duties of everyday life and consciousness of energy level and the will to manage their own lives, including leisure activities according to their own tastes. Conclusion of the study: Promotion of various forms of physical activities among the elderly can contribute to improvement of their quality of life

Disturbance distance: quantifying forests' vulnerability to disturbance under current and future conditions

Disturbances, both natural and anthropogenic, are critical determinants of forest structure, function, and distribution. The vulnerability of forests to potential changes in disturbance rates remains largely unknown. Here, we developed a framework for quantifying and mapping the vulnerability of forests to changes in disturbance rates. By comparing recent estimates of observed forest disturbance rates over a sample of contiguous US forests to modeled rates of disturbance resulting in forest loss, a novel index of vulnerability, Disturbance Distance, was produced. Sample results indicate that 20% of current US forestland could be lost if disturbance rates were to double, with southwestern forests showing highest vulnerability. Under a future climate scenario, the majority of US forests showed capabilities of withstanding higher rates of disturbance then under the current climate scenario, which may buffer some impacts of intensified forest disturbanceinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio