The Largest Known Dinosaur

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The Overlooked Potential of Generalized Linear Models in Astronomy-III: Bayesian Negative Binomial Regression and Globular Cluster Populations

In this paper, the third in a series illustrating the power of generalized linear models (GLMs) for the astronomical community, we elucidate the potential of the class of GLMs which handles count data. The size of a galaxy's globular cluster population $N_{\rm GC}$ is a prolonged puzzle in the astronomical literature. It falls in the category of count data analysis, yet it is usually modelled as if it were a continuous response variable. We have developed a Bayesian negative binomial regression model to study the connection between $N_{\rm GC}$ and the following galaxy properties: central black hole mass, dynamical bulge mass, bulge velocity dispersion, and absolute visual magnitude. The methodology introduced herein naturally accounts for heteroscedasticity, intrinsic scatter, errors in measurements in both axes (either discrete or continuous), and allows modelling the population of globular clusters on their natural scale as a non-negative integer variable. Prediction intervals of 99% around the trend for expected $N_{\rm GC}$comfortably envelope the data, notably including the Milky Way, which has hitherto been considered a problematic outlier. Finally, we demonstrate how random intercept models can incorporate information of each particular galaxy morphological type. Bayesian variable selection methodology allows for automatically identifying galaxy types with different productions of GCs, suggesting that on average S0 galaxies have a GC population 35% smaller than other types with similar brightness.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Medical uncertainty and reproduction of the “normal”: Decision-making around testosterone therapy in transgender pregnancy

In this work, we draw upon in-depth interview and focus group data from a three-year international study of 70 trans people (residing across Australia, Canada, the European Union, United Kingdom, and the United States) about their intentions and experiences around pregnancy, as well as 22 health care providers (practicing across Australia, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States) with self-identified experience working with trans patients and pregnancy along a diverse cross-section of specialty areas (e.g., psychotherapists, general practitioners, endocrinologists, midwives, lactation consultants, OBGYNs, fertility specialists). The central motivating questions guiding the present work are: 1) For trans people who are taking testosterone, what is the medical advice and guidance around stopping or pausing testosterone therapy to become pregnant, throughout pregnancy, and during the postpartum period (particularly in the context of chestfeeding/breastfeeding); 2) What is the evidence base in the medical empirical literature for this guidance; and 3) How do trans people respond to this guidance

Transnormativity in the psy disciplines: Constructing pathology in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual and Standards of Care

The psy disciplines (i.e., psychiatry, psychology, psychoanalysis, and psychotherapy) have played a significant role in shaping understandings of transgender people’s lives in ways that are transnormative (i.e., by emphasizing one particular account of what it means to be transgender). This paper documents 1) how the rise of the psy disciplines created opportunities for transgender people to access treatment (but that such access often required tacit acceptance of transnormativity), and 2) how transgender people have resisted transnormative accounts within the psy disciplines. More specifically, this paper explores how both the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, and what is now the World Professional Association for Transgender Health’s Standards of Care, have often enshrined highly regulatory accounts of transgender people’s lives, while also changing over time, in part due to the contributions of transgender people. The paper concludes by considering recent contributions by transgender people in terms of the use of informed consent models of care and clinical research, and highlights the ongoing marginalization of transgender people in terms of access to ethical, trans-competent care

The Overlooked Potential of Generalized Linear Models in Astronomy - I: Binomial Regression

Revealing hidden patterns in astronomical data is often the path to fundamental scientific breakthroughs; meanwhile the complexity of scientific inquiry increases as more subtle relationships are sought. Contemporary data analysis problems often elude the capabilities of classical statistical techniques, suggesting the use of cutting edge statistical methods. In this light, astronomers have overlooked a whole family of statistical techniques for exploratory data analysis and robust regression, the so-called Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). In this paper -- the first in a series aimed at illustrating the power of these methods in astronomical applications -- we elucidate the potential of a particular class of GLMs for handling binary/binomial data, the so-called logit and probit regression techniques, from both a maximum likelihood and a Bayesian perspective. As a case in point, we present the use of these GLMs to explore the conditions of star formation activity and metal enrichment in primordial minihaloes from cosmological hydro-simulations including detailed chemistry, gas physics, and stellar feedback. We predict that for a dark mini-halo with metallicity $\approx 1.3 \times 10^{-4} Z_{\bigodot}$, an increase of $1.2 \times 10^{-2}$ in the gas molecular fraction, increases the probability of star formation occurrence by a factor of 75%. Finally, we highlight the use of receiver operating characteristic curves as a diagnostic for binary classifiers, and ultimately we use these to demonstrate the competitive predictive performance of GLMs against the popular technique of artificial neural networks.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Computin

Hybrid propagation physics for the design and modeling of astronomical observatories: a coronagraphic example

For diffraction-limited optical systems an accurate physical optics model is necessary to properly evaluate instrument performance. Astronomical observatories outfitted with coronagraphs for direct exoplanet imaging require physical optics models to simulate the effects of misalignment and diffraction. Accurate knowledge of the observatory's PSF is integral for the design of high-contrast imaging instruments and simulation of astrophysical observations. The state of the art is to model the misalignment, ray aberration, and diffraction across multiple software packages, which complicates the design process. Gaussian Beamlet Decomposition (GBD) is a ray-based method of diffraction calculation that has been widely implemented in commercial optical design software. By performing the coherent calculation with data from the ray model of the observatory, the ray aberration errors can be fed directly into the physical optics model of the coronagraph, enabling a more integrated model of the observatory. We develop a formal algorithm for the transfer-matrix method of GBD, and evaluate it against analytical results and a traditional physical optics model to assess the suitability of GBD for high-contrast imaging simulations. Our GBD simulations of the observatory PSF, when compared to the analytical Airy function, have a sum-normalized RMS difference of ~10^-6. These fields are then propagated through a Fraunhofer model of a exoplanet imaging coronagraph where the mean residual numerical contrast is 4x10^-11, with a maximum near the inner working angle at 5x10^-9. These results show considerable promise for the future development of GBD as a viable propagation technique in high-contrast imaging. We developed this algorithm in an open-source software package and outlined a path for its continued development to increase the fidelity and flexibility of diffraction simulations using GBD.Comment: 58 pages, 15 figures, preprint version for article in press. Accepted to SPIE's Journal of Astronomical Telescopes, Instruments, and Systems on October 23 202

Changing Snow Cover and Stream Discharge in the Western United States - Wind River Range, Wyoming

Earlier onset of springtime weather has been documented in the western United States over at least the last 50 years. Because the majority (>70%) of the water supply in the western U.S. comes from snowmelt, analysis of the declining spring snowpack has important implications for the management of water resources. We studied ten years of Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products, 40 years of stream discharge and meteorological station data and 30 years of snow-water equivalent (SWE) SNOw Telemetry (SNOTEL) data in the Wind River Range (WRR), Wyoming. Results show increasing air temperatures for.the 40-year study period. Discharge from streams in WRR drainage basins show lower annual discharge and earlier snowmelt in the decade of the 2000s than in the previous three decades. Changes in streamflow may be related to increasing air temperatures which are probably contributing to a reduction in snow cover, although no trend of either increasingly lower streamflow or earlier snowmelt was observed within the decade of the 2000s. And SWE on 1 April does not show an expected downward trend from 1980 to 2009. The extent of snow cover derived from the lowest-elevation zone of the WRR study area is strongly correlated (r=0.91) with stream discharge on 1 May during the decade of the 2000s. The strong relationship between snow cover and streamflow indicates that MODIS snow-cover maps can be used to improve management of water resources in the drought-prone western U.S

Intraoperative electrocochleographic characteristics of auditory neuropathy spectrum disorder in cochlear implant subjects

Auditory neuropathy spectrum disorder (ANSD) is characterized by an apparent discrepancy between measures of cochlear and neural function based on auditory brainstem response (ABR) testing. Clinical indicators of ANSD are a present cochlear microphonic (CM) with small or absent wave V. Many identified ANSD patients have speech impairment severe enough that cochlear implantation (CI) is indicated. To better understand the cochleae identified with ANSD that lead to a CI, we performed intraoperative round window electrocochleography (ECochG) to tone bursts in children (n = 167) and adults (n = 163). Magnitudes of the responses to tones of different frequencies were summed to measure the “total response” (ECochG-TR), a metric often dominated by hair cell activity, and auditory nerve activity was estimated visually from the compound action potential (CAP) and auditory nerve neurophonic (ANN) as a ranked “Nerve Score”. Subjects identified as ANSD (45 ears in children, 3 in adults) had higher values of ECochG-TR than adult and pediatric subjects also receiving CIs not identified as ANSD. However, nerve scores of the ANSD group were similar to the other cohorts, although dominated by the ANN to low frequencies more than in the non-ANSD groups. To high frequencies, the common morphology of ANSD cases was a large CM and summating potential, and small or absent CAP. Common morphologies in other groups were either only a CM, or a combination of CM and CAP. These results indicate that responses to high frequencies, derived primarily from hair cells, are the main source of the CM used to evaluate ANSD in the clinical setting. However, the clinical tests do not capture the wide range of neural activity seen to low frequency sounds